Archive - Jul 12, 2013 - Story

If Bernanke is looking for inflation under every rock and cranny, he may have just found it in today's PPI, if only in its energy components. While the headline June number was expected to jump sequentially by 0.5%, the same as May, the final print came at 0.8%, or 2.5% on a Y/Y basis - the highest since March 2012 - driven entirely by Energy good prices, which soared by 2.9% sequentially, the most since February's 3.2%. Foods PPI jumped by a more manageable 0.2%, although no matter how, it is inevitable that producers will now pass both of these to consumers whose purchasing power, especially at the gas pump, is about to be severely tested especially with fuel prices now once again rising at the fastest pace in months.

With macro fundamental data anything but positive and earnings expectations on a one-way street lower, it makes perfect sense for stocks to be surging on expectations for the future, right? Well, it appears UPS is about to burst that little bubble of faith, hope, and unclarity.

*UPS EXPECTS TO REPORT 2Q EPS $1.13; EST. $1.20; YEAR VIEW CUT
*UPS SEES YEAR ADJ. EPS $4.65-$4.85, SAW $4.80-$5.06, EST. $4.98

Citing "customer preference for lower-yielding shipping solutions" - i.e. everyone is slashing costs still, the real kicker is what is driving their revenue and operating income below expectations - "a slowing US industrial economy." So much for the 'recovery'. For now, UPS is -4.2% pre-market.

As we showed a few days ago in "Taper Fears Lead To Biggest Monthly Loss In Bank Securities Portfolios Since Lehman", JPM just reported the biggest hit to its Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income line since Lehman, which plunged from $3.5 billion to a miserable $0.4 billion. All we can say is hurray that Mark to Market is dead.

Spain, as you know, and no matter how the story is fabricated, was bailed out by the European Union. The money was lent to the banks so that Spain does not have to count it as sovereign debt even though the country guaranteed the loans. Madrid, however, tells the truth in the same manner as a sardine naturally climbs mountains. Spain has set up a "bad bank" known as Sareb (Sociedad de Gestión de Activos procedentes de la Reestructuración Bancaria). This operation has $66 billion of Real Estate loans and property as their assets we are told. So far they have sold 700 properties and they claim they can achieve an annual return on equity of 13%-14% over its fifteen year tenure. The truth - so far - is unbelievably worse than expected.

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Cutting through the noise of JPM's earnings, here are the salient facts: the company beat the bottom line expectation of $1.45 with an $1.60 ex-DVA print. However, this number included the now traditional "puffery" benefit from loan loss reserve releases, specifically $950MM pretax ($0.15 EPS) from mortgage loan loss reserves and $550MM pretax ($0.09) from credit cards. Additionally, the company reserved a whopping $600 million for litigation, or about $0.09, and according to the firm this should be backed out from the bottom line. Of course, that assumes the litigation against JPM will not be an ongoing, non-onetime event. In other words, ex-releases, JPM misses, however it was right in line if one assumes the litigation reserve was indeed one-time. In summary, the firm had a total of $19.4 billion in loan loss reserves and the release of $1.4 billion was the biggest since Q3 2012. What is worse going forward was the slide in Mortgage Production pretax income which was $582mm, down a whopping $349mm YoY, "reflecting lower margins and higher expense, partially offset by higher volumes and lower repurchase losses." For those curious how the rate spike has impacted JPM, here it is: mortgage originations down 7% Q/Q, and firmwide it dropped to $52 billion. But perhaps the worst news is that despite the dramatic spike up in yields at the end of the quarter, JPM reported a Net Interest Margin that in Q2 was the lowest ever, dropping to just 1.05% on a market-based basis, the firm's defined NIM slid to 2.20%.

When Bloomberg blasts headlines like this: S&P FUTURES UP 1PT, AT SESSION HIGH, ERASE EARLIER 3.4PT DROP,  you know Bernanke hasn't spoken in over 24 hours if a 4 point swing is headline worthy. That said, the exhausted S&P ramp is now going for the 6th consecutive session as all the losses since the June FOMC meeting have now been erased, the S&P is making constant all time highs, and seemingly the Fed's message on tapering and communication has been clarified. The message being that the Fed is tapering its monthly purchases but short-term rates aren't being lifted. Sadly, the market's first reaction was the right one but the herd of cats has once again been herded by the trading desk at Liberty 33.