Archive - Jul 15, 2013 - Story

As everyone knows, the only reason to become a banker, and be subject to constant derision, abuse, scorn and hatred by the "99%", and potentially to a fate comparable to that of the aristocracy in France circa 1789, is a simple one: money. Specifically, get as much of in as short a time period as possible, be rewarded with a taxpayer bailout or two when massive bets go epically wrong, then convert all your cash into "hard assets" and escape to a non-extradition country before the latest credit bubble pops. In other words, a simple opportunity cost analysis. Which then begs the question: why are there bankers in the following European countries: Slovenia, Romania, Malta, Lithuania, Estonia, Czech Republic and Bulgaria. The one thing in common these countries have is that according to a just released European Banking Authority study, in the year ended 2011 not a single domiciled banker made over €1 million! In other words: bankers working for feudal peasant salaries. What a scam.

Prompted by their FrAAAnce downgrade to AA+, French-owned Fitch has downgraded Europe's last best promise/hope - the EFSF - from AAA to AA+... but the crisis is still behind us - we are assure by such truth-sayers as Juncker, Barroso, and Merkel (pre-elections). The key sentence is "Following the downgrade of France's IDR, the EFSF's long-term debt issues are not fully covered by 'AAA' guarantees and over-guarantees and, for debt issued before October 2011, by the cash reserve." So that's good then... Don't worry though since "Fitch assumes there will be progress in deepening fiscal and financial integration at the eurozone level in line with commitments by euro area policy makers"

The perception of natural gas as a mainstream fuel for vehicles runs the gamut, dependent upon where you live: from the improbable... to the viable... to the everyday reality. So here are ten points to stir up the melding pot of the great natural gas vehicle debate.

As the mainstream American press goes after NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and Guardian journalist Glenn Greenwald, Germany's Spiegel note that the leakers' revelations appear to becoming an afterthought. As the Guardian's American chief noted, their competition has a "lack of skepticism on a whole" when it comes to national security. Critical scrutiny, she said, has been considered "unpatriotic" since 9/11.

The pain that banks have experienced can best be seen in the following chart showing the latest update in "Net unrealized gains (losses) on available-for-sale securities" from the Fed's weekly H.8. Two things come to mind: i) For the first time since April 2011, unrealized gains in AFS portfolios among the entire US banking sector became losses, and  ii) The two month rate of loss creation in MTM exempt AFS portfolio soared to the highest in series history.

A society of the increasingly overworked and involuntarily idle is not a stable or happy one. Yes, there are pockets of state fiefdoms and private sectors where workers are well-compensated for low-stress work, but these are exceptions, not the norm. No wonder those who can do so are quitting and filing for Social Security or tapping their 401K retirement plans to get by, or otherwise opting out of the labor force. Pressure is building along multiple fault lines beneath the supposedly expanding American economy. What's really expanding are stress, ill health, chronic depression, financial insecurity and the frustrations of the powerless.

... everything else (give or take) is.

Last week it was JPM just somewhat contradicting Jamie Dimon's "kid gloves" CNBC infomercial, when it slashed its Q1 GDP forecast from 2% to 1% (and about to be revised to sub-stall speed). Today, following the latest retail sales unadjusted disaster, it is Goldman's turn to slash its Q2 GDP tracking estimate from 1.3% to 1.0%. Stall speed has arrived despite everyone's forecasts for the this time it's different glorious US economic renaissance (so far "deferred" each year since 2010).

"Her neck had an obvious electronic injury," was the local Public Security Bureau's findings following the death of Ma Ailun, a 23-year old Chinese woman whose family alleges she was electrocuted by her iPhone. In its statement, Apple said: "We are deeply saddened to learn of this tragic incident and offer our condolences to the Ma family. We will fully investigate and cooperate with authorities in this matter." The case remains under investigation, with Chinese officials yet to provide details on whether her smartphone, the charger, or something else killed the woman; but, as the WSJ reports, The China Consumers’ Association in May warned about the dangers of a "flood" of uncertified power chargers on the market (in Chinese). In the release the association warned the chargers could turn a smartphone into a “pocket grenade” and cause explosions, electric shock, or fires in a variety of electronic devices. Reuters notes that Ma's sister tweeted on Sina's microblog saying that Ma collapsed and died after using her charging iPhone 5 and urged users to be careful and the message has gone viral - "(I) hope that Apple Inc. can give us an explanation. I also hope that all of you will refrain from using your mobile devices while charging."

By now everyone knows that when all else fails with propaganda data manipulation, the US government goes right to Plan B: the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program (full 257 instruction manual here). It most certainly did that in June. The chart below shows the June difference between Seasonally Adjusted and Non-Seasonally Adjusted headline data: a positive number means that contrary to the empirical seasonal adjustment data of the past 15 years, NSA was lower than SA, implying an abnormal boost to seasonal adjustments to make June appear far, far better than the actual NSA data implies. Well, try to find which June of the past 15 is an outlier...

If the worst retail sales number in 12 months doesn't send the S&P to 1,700 nothing will. Because that is precisely the data point we got moments ago when the Census bureau reported June retail sales growth of 0.4%, missing expectations of a 0.8% print and down from a downward revised 0.5%. However, the only growth in the headline number was thanks to auto and gas sales. Ex autos retail sales were unchanged on expectations of a 0.5% increase, while ex autos and gas the print was down -0.1%, crushing hopes of a +0.4% increase. Any minute now, however, the Fed's S&P500 trickle down wil, with a 4 year delay, hit the end consumer: the entire Princeton economics department pinky swears.

Everyone wants to know what day everything will change. Despite all the chaos in Portugal, Greece, Spain, and France; none of this will matter until after this drop-dead date. Nothing is going to be allowed to upset the bratwurst cart and we mean nothing. If more money is needed it will be spent. If favors need to be called the phone will be in use. But in the day following, however...

Once again, as always happens with a very substantial delay, two themes that have been covered extensively on these pages in the past much to the ridicule of the mainstream media, namely that while the US may have "No Manufacturing Jobs But More Waiters And Bartenders Than Ever" and that Obamacare has finally struck as "Part-Time Jobs Surge To All Time High; Full-Time Jobs Plunge By 240,000" are now begrudgingly covered and in fact, endorsed, by the very same MSM. Enter the Wall Street Journal which blends the two themes well known to our readers, and writes that "More Restaurants Replace Full-Timers, Concerned About Insurance." To wit: "Ken Adams has been turning to more part-time workers at his 10 Subway sandwich shops in Michigan to avoid possibly incurring higher health-care costs under the new federal insurance law. He added approximately 25 part-time workers in May and June as he reduced some employees' hours and replaced other workers who left. The move showed how efforts by some restaurant owners and other businesses to remake their workforces because of the Affordable Care Act may be turning the country's labor market into a more part-time workforce." In other words, the already worst paying jobs in the US are getting even more of the shaft, downgraded from full time to part time status. Precisely the New "part-time worker society" that we predicted would happen back in 2010...

• An actual Bloomberg headline: Granny’s Gold Bars Are Key to Vietnam Push to Boost Dong (BBG)
• Gay delivers further body blow to troubled sport (Reuters)
• China Wealth Eludes Foreigners as Stocks Earn 1% in 20 Years (BBG)
• Bernanke Boom Signaled by Yield Surge as Market Recalculates (BBG)
• Portugal's Parties Set Deadline for Pact (WSJ)
• Corporate Spending Set to Surge in U.S. (BBG)... or not at all based on the actual corporate data
• Legal Fears Slowed Aid to Syrian Rebels (WSJ)
• A mega-camp adds to the Boy Scouts’ troubles (Reuters)
• GSK accused of being ‘ringleader’ in China probe (FT)
• 19 Hospitalized in US-Ukraine Army Exercise - Ministry (RIA)
• Egypt Islamists march as senior U.S. official visits (Reuters)
• German spies made use of U.S. surveillance data (Reuters)

Risk assets are not quite (yet) back to the ‘melt-up' of May but equity markets are trading in a confident mood after Bernanke caused sentiment to flip from glass ‘half empty' to ‘half full'. China Q2 GDP data did not derail price action as equity futures anticipate a positive start of the week. The semi-annual testimony of the Fed Chairman is typically a seminal event on the market calendar but do we dare say that the one coming up this week is a non-event following last week's message on policy accommodation? The VIX index dropped 7 points over the last three weeks of which 2 points alone came last Thursday and Friday as stocks roared to new highs and shrugged off the candid observation on the Chinese economy by finance minister Lou Jiwei. If a 6.5% growth rate is tolerable in the future, there is little doubt that commodities and the AUD have further to fall. Chinese GDP slowed from 7.7% to 7.5% according to data released overnight and prospects for the second half don't look much brighter after evidence of slowing credit growth. Data on Friday showed declines of narrow money from 11.3% yoy to 9.1% in May, with broad money growth slowing to 14% yoy. Non-bank credit and new foreign currency bank lending also weakened.