Archive - Jul 2013 - Story

The proud Q1 debt-to-GDP outliers, where the local economies are expected to continue plunging and thus send the stock markets (if mostly that in the US) surging, are the following:

• Euroarea: 92.2%, up from 88.2% a year ago
• Greece: 160.5%, up from 136.5% a year ago
• Italy: 130.3%; up from 123.8% a year ago
• Portugal: 127.2%, up from 112.3% a year ago
• Ireland: 125.1%, up from 106.8% a year ago
• Spain: 88.2%, up from 73.0% a year ago
• Netherlands: 72.0%, up from 66.7% a year ago

It must have been the weather: at least that is what we expect McDonalds will blame the latest (in a long series) of Q2 revenue misses, but also earnings as moments ago the fast food giant reported $1.38 EPS in Q2 earnings, while revenue of $7.08 billion missed expectations of $7.09 billion. The internals were just as ugly: Q2 comp sales rose 1% on expectations of a +1.5% print; Europe was down -0.1% with the bulk of the hit coming strangely enough from Germany and France. The rest was in line, with global comp sales up 1% vs Exp. 1%, however this being the weakest of all categories it is hardly offsetting what is becoming increasing a weak lower-end consumer story, as well as one of FX headwinds with forex eating into Q2 EPS by $0.02. Sadly, after reading the press release it appears the neither cold or hot spring/summer weather was at scapegoated fault (as it was for Coke and Google): "McDonald's results for the quarter reflect our efforts to strengthen our business momentum for the long-term," said McDonald's President and Chief Executive Officer Don Thompson. "We remain strategically focused on the global growth priorities that help us better serve our customers. While the informal eating out market remains challenging and economic uncertainty is pressuring consumer spending, we're continuing to differentiate the McDonald's experience by uniting consumer insights, innovation and execution." Innovation in the $1 meal? Good luck. More importantly, someone actually told the truth about end-demand, and the fact that consumer spending is deteriorating. Unpossible.

With earnings season in full swing as some 20% of the S&P is expected to report, the quieter macro picture moves to the backburner especially with the Fed now silent for a long time. Looking at key central banks events, at the Turkey central bank meeting this week, Goldman expects that the bank is more likely to deliver a moderately hawkish “surprise” and hike the lending rate by 100bp to 7.5% (7.0% for primary dealers), and leave the key policy (1-week repo) and the borrowing rates unchanged at 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively.  Among the other central bank meetings this week, benchmark rates are expected to remain unchanged in New Zealand, Philippines and Colombia, in line with consensus, while a 25bp cut is expected to be announced at the Hungary MPC meeting.

• Earthquake Sends Kiwis Screaming From Wellington Buildings (BBG)
• China quake death toll more than doubles to 54, hundreds hurt (Reuters)
• In 2011, Michigan Gov. Snyder said bankruptcy wasn't an option for Detroit. Two years later, he changed his mind (WSJ)
• GlaxoSmithKline says Chinese laws might have been violated (FT)
• SEC Tries Last Ditch Move to Put SAC’s Cohen Out of Business (BBG)
• Detroit’s Bankruptcy Reveals Dysfunction Common in Cities (BBG)
• Obama to start new offensive on economy (FT)
• As WTI and Brent reunite, Gulf of Mexico faces squeeze, not glut (Reuters)
• Extended Stay Files for Public Offering (WSJ)
• Apple Developer Website Hacked: Developer Names, Addresses May Have Been Taken (MacRumors)
• Treasuries Not Safe Enough as Foreign Purchase Pace Slows (BBG)

Don't look now but futures are up as usual, driven higher by both good and bad news. The biggest event of the weekend, if largely priced in, was the victory by Abe's coalition in the upper-house leading to the following seat breakdown. Of course, judging by the Yen and market reaction, which barely managed to eek out a gain: its first in four trading days, the event was largely of the "sell the news" type despite such bold proclamations: "Abe’s victory in the upper house is bullish for Japanese equities and the Japanese economy as a whole, as the removal of political headwinds bolsters the government’s ability to press forward with all ‘three arrows’ of its growth strategy," John Vail, Tokyo-based chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management Co., which manages $162 billion, wrote in an e-mail. Elsewhere in Europe, Portugal bond yields have plunged by roughly 60 bps on news that the Portuguese President Silva has backed the centre-right coalition government, consequently ruling out snap polls. Well, what else is he going to do? This also comes on the heels of a Goldman report that said a second bailout for the country will be necessary and will likely be discussed in the fall. That too is bullish. What also was bullish in Europe apparently is that government debt hit a new record high of 92.2% of GDP. Remember: debt is wealth so just buy more futures. Looking forward to the US, the market will focus on the latest existing home sales data, the Chicago Fed activity index, as well as earnings report releases from McDonalds, Texas Instruments and Halliburton and a bunch of other companies that will beat EPS and miss revenues.

From the huge demand for physical gold from Asia to repatriation demands, and from the draining of COMEX gold inventories to the excess supply of paper gold, there is an increasing 'gap' between the perceived 'price' of gold and the cost to get one's hands on the precious metal. Santiago Capital's Brent Johnson provides a brief but complete summary of the various conundra (which we have described in detail) occurring currently in the manipulated metals market. Perhaps the most telling phrase comes towards the end when Johnson notes, "I don't know how to say 'Hunt Brothers' in Mandarin, but it might not be a bad idea to learn."

UPDATE: At least 22 killed, 300 injured in the Chabu quake; Nikkei 225 -400 from intraday highs.

It seems Asia-Pac is a hot-bed of activity this evening as both markets and mainland are being buffeted. Despite the 'positive' news of Abe's victory, JPY is strengthening (back below 100) and the Nikkei has given up all its post-Japan-close gains from Friday (down 340 from the US-day-session-close). But more importantly, New Zealand (Wellington) and China (Chabu) have suffered significant earthquakes this evening. There are reports of some damage to buildings and infrastructure in New Zealand after the 6.5 quake (and >4.5 aftershocks). Local news in China claims that a village has been leveled by a strong, shallow 6.6 quake but China Daily notes details remain unclear. We worry that just as in late 2010 (culminating in Japan in March 2011), the tectonic plate movement in Asia-Pac is starting to pick up.

The following story from Bloomberg's Jonathan Weil should be familiar to anyone who i) wanted to get rich quick; ii) wasn't too willing to read the small print, and iii) put their faith in a TBTF bank. Or simply watches South Park. Jon recounts the story of "Philip L. Ramatlhware, an immigrant from Botswana who went to a Citigroup branch in downtown Philadelphia one day five years ago to open a regular bank account. He was 48 years old at the time and disabled, after being hurt in an accident as a passenger on a Greyhound bus. In April 2008, he received $225,000 in a settlement for his injuries, part of which went to pay legal fees. He was holding the settlement check when he walked into the branch. Immediately he was referred to a broker for a “financial consultation,” according to an arbitration claim he filed against Citigroup. The broker assured him the money would be invested in “guaranteed” funds and that he could have access to them whenever the need arose, the complaint said. Ramatlhware gave him $150,000 to invest. The broker put $5,000 into a bank certificate of deposit, bought a $133,000 variable annuity and invested the rest in a series of mutual funds. Less than six months later, Ramatlhware had lost $40,000, according to the complaint."

Almost 11% of short gold positions covered in the last week according to CFTC Commitment of Traders' data. That is the largest weekly drop in net shorts for four months and the combined futures-and-options net long position jumped 13,287 contracts or an impressive 48% (the most since Nov 08). Following the ubiquitous "sell-while-Bernanke-is-speaking" dump last Wednesday gold has risen almost 4% touching $1320 this evening as Asia opens. So with Asian physical demand remaining high and COMEX vault's running dry (and JPMorgan's on fire), we wonder - now that Taper is off (according to equity market pundits) if this is the start of the long-awaited short-covering rally back to reality for the precious metal.

China is similar to Japan in the 1980s in terms of financial imbalances and challenges for the real economy, but, as JPMorgan notes, China differs in terms of its stage of economic development. Turning possibility into reality is not an easy task, especially as China’s structural slowdown is accompanied by mounting financial imbalances. In the near term, overcapacity and decline in the rate of return on investment are the major challenges to be addressed by policymakers, and rising debt in the corporate sector and local governments needs to be contained and gradually reduced. In our view, this would require reform not only on the economic front (e.g., fiscal reform, land reform, financial reform, and SOE reform), but also social reform (e.g., hukou reform) and governmental reform (e.g., changing the role of the government and de-monopolizing). The list of tasks is daunting, but policy inaction could be even more dangerous - a delay in economic restructuring in China could lead to a repeat of Japan’s experience.

It is so sad to watch one of America's greatest cities die a horrible death.  Once upon a time, the city of Detroit was a teeming metropolis of 1.8 million people and it had the highest per capita income in the United States.  Now it is a rotting, decaying hellhole of about 700,000 people that the rest of the world makes jokes about. Detroit is only just the beginning.  When the next major financial crisis strikes, we are going to see a wave of municipal bankruptcies unlike anything we have ever seen before. All over the nation, our economic infrastructure is being gutted, debt levels are exploding and poverty is spreading.  We are consuming far more wealth than we are producing, and our share of global GDP has been declining dramatically. We have been living way above our means for so long that we think it is "normal", but an extremely painful "adjustment" is coming and most Americans are not going to know how to handle it. So don't laugh at Detroit.  The economic pain that Detroit is experiencing will be coming to your area of the country soon enough.

The following brief video created by TheRules.org, using data sourced from this website, is the latest vivid demonstration of the most adverse (and dangerous) side effect of nearly five years, and counting, of global monetary intervention by central banks: a world in which the poor get poorer, the rich get richer, and the middle class disappears. The video's punchline "The richest 300 people on earth have as much wealth as the poorest 3 billion" is not exactly correct: in truth the situation is even worse: the richest 200 people have about $2.7 trillion, which is more than the poorest 3.5 billion people, who have only $2.2 trillion combined.

Amid the furore of Sunday morning political programming, Detroit Mayor Bing and Michigan Governor Snyder have been quite vocal. Bing made it clear that "a lot of negotiations will go into fixing our city," and when asked whether he will seek a Federal bailout, he responded, "not yet." The decisions following this huge bankruptcy are likely to be precedent-setting as Bing noted that more than 100 urban US cities "are having the same  problems we're having." As the WSJ reports, Bing warned, "We may be one of the first. We are the largest. But we absolutely will not be the last. And so we have got to set a benchmark in terms how to fix our cities." Snyder was a little more hopeful that salvation will come from above as he stated that while "I don't view that as the right answer... if the federal government wants to [bail us out], that’s their option."

One of the catalysts driving the Friday rally in stocks was news from the PBOC that China was pushing forward with liberalization of its "interest rate controls" by removing the lending rate floor. Back then we asked, rhetorically, that "besides optics, because China does not have a market clearing interest rate so this announcement is largely moot, will this announcement have an actual impact on Chinese lending or transmission mechanisms? Hardly." As SocGen lays out today, "Hardly" was indeed the accurate answer: "Although the step is of great significance, the near term impact is likely to be very limited."