Archive - Jul 2013 - Story

One word sticks out most, and it is not "(f)unemployment."

Bernanke's prepared remarks, which said nothing the market did not already know, have already been disseminated, and now it is time for the House Financial Services Committee to open their mouths and confirm to everyone they have no idea they are now irrelevant (everyone already knew they have zero understanding of monetary policy and that in fact, Bernanke is begging Congress to raise spending so he has more QE purchasing power as all Ben does to the Hill is monetize their deficit) and the sole person who calls the shots is an unelected Princeton historian, with his finger on the print button. So, without further ado, here is Ben Bernanke at the "Delivering Beta" conference, live from room 2128 in the Rayburn House Office Building.

Today the financial world will focus on one singular person. He is not elected but appointed. He kind of, sort of, reports to Congress but there is a football field of slippage in that observation. With the wave of a hand or the choice of a word he can send markets to the moon or leave them bleeding in the streets. It is a fascinating position that Mr. Bernanke occupies as he can take money or create money as easily as he can order his morning coffee. The fun begins when the question and answer session begins. Then it is rather like a video game. Traders all across the world sitting with their fingers on the keyboard just waiting to press the button if the wisp of some word blows left or right, up or down. It is the adult version of "Call of Duty, Modern Warfare."

In all the noise surrounding Bernanke's rehash of statements made countless times before, today's only relevant data point - June housing starts and permits - was largely ignored. And one can see why: printing at 836K, the starts number was the lowest since August 2012, the second largest sequential drop (down from 928K in May) since 2011 and the biggest miss to expectations of 957K since January 2007! And worse, permits which printed down from 985K to only 911K on expectations of a 1 million headline number, just posted their largest miss... in history.

In a somewhat unsurprising speech, Bernanke lays out the same old data-dependent, we-might-Taper-but-only-if-things-are-great (and they're not), just-enough-for-everyone to hope for the punchbowl to never be taken away on the basis of dreaming of more dismal data to come:

• *BERNANKE SAYS PACE OF BOND PURCHASES NOT `ON A PRESET COURSE'
• *BERNANKE SAYS FED MAY TAPER QE IN 2013, HALT IT AROUND MID-2014
• *BERNANKE SAYS FOMC BELIEVES RISKS TO ECONOMY EASED SINCE FALL
• *BERNANKE SEES HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE

While the market is skittish on this (maybe on his ongoing recognition that the bubble is right back where it was), we suspect the post-speech Q&A will be the key as he will have had over two hours to see the market's reaction and therefore walk it back if he needs to.

Pre:S&P 500 1671.75, 10Y 2.5207, EURJPY 130.99, USD 82.58, WTI 105.8, Gold 1287.33

Maybe its a moment of Raghuram Rajan-like clarity facing his supposed bosses - or maybe its a need to discipline the ever-present fiscal profligacy but, it seems something happens that on average gives stocks (and other risk-on related asset classes) a seasonal affected disorder following the Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony.

• Bernanke Seeks to Divorce QE Tapering From Interest Rates (BBG)
• China launches crackdown on pharmaceutical sector (Reuters)
• Barclays, Traders Fined $487.9 Million by U.S. Regulator (BBG) - or a few days profit
• Barclays to fight $453 million power fine in U.S. court (Reuters)
• When an IPO fails, raise money privately: Ally Said to Weigh Raising $1 Billion to Pass Fed Stress Tests (BBG)
• Bank of England signals retreat from quantitative easing (FT) ... Let's refresh on this headline in 6 months, shall we.
• Russia's Putin puts U.S. ties above Snowden (Reuters)
• Smartphone Upgrades Slow as 'Wow' Factor Fades (WSJ)
• Snowden could leave Moscow airport in next few days (FT)
• New Egypt government may promote welfare, not economic reform (Reuters)

Moments ago Bank of America was the last TBTF bank to report earnings, which came in at $4 billion or $0.32 per diluted share compared to expectations of a $0.26 print. Revenue was $22.9 billion net of interest expense which was just a fraction above the $22.7 billion expected. The immediate reason for the beat: the usual accounting fudge to net interest losses which came in at $1.2 thanks to yet another $900 Million (well above the $804MM in Q1 and the same as Q4 2012) loan loss reserve reduction to the total net charge off number of $2.1 billion. And with $21.2 billion in credit loss "buffer" allowance still left on the books from those torrid days of 2008, expect the accounting fudges to continue for a long time.

Bernanke today testifies on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee (formerly the Humphrey-Hawkins). The testimony will be released at 8:30 am NY with Q&A after his testimony. Tomorrow he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee but the prepared remarks are the same for both days. Indeed it’s likely that the Q&A will be where all the fun starts. As DB says, he will likely try to pull off the trick of continuing to prepare the groundwork for tapering but try to give bond markets something to help them fight off the pressure of higher yields. With no post-meeting press conference planned for the July 30th/31st FOMC, and Bernanke not scheduled to speak publicly until he appears at the Global Education Forum event on August 7th, this week’s testimony may well be the only remarks we hear directly from the chairman for some weeks.

As we have exhaustively noted, given the various macro factors bringing influence to bear on the yellow metal, the bizarre price action of the last six months has run counter to most logical assumptions and has been a source of great frustration to many - including Grant Williams. Cyprus should have been a hugely positive tailwind for gold. But it wasn't. The ongoing money printing should have provided support for gold. But it hasn't. The talk of tapering should have had a minor but noticeable effect on gold, given its healthy recent correction. But it didn't. Sustained data suggesting a voracious appetite for the physical metal not only in Asia but in Western countries, too, should have led to a bounce on the COMEX. But it hasn't. The whole thing is as baffling as Kim Kardashian's fame. When the need to own gold jumps again - and it will; this is a long way from over - all the pieces of this jigsaw puzzle of the weird and wonderful forest of gold manipulation that we have dropped onto the table will slot neatly into place. What if, when that happens, there just isn't enough gold to go around?

Sunday's 'golidlocks' data dump from China was enough for many to herald the turn is in and it's all plain-sailing from here, but the reality is a little different (as always). As Bloomberg's Michael McDonough notes, there is little upside for the yuan given China's slowing economy and a strengthening US Dollar. The gloomier outlook may also weigh on domestic equity markets. The Shanghai Composite Index has underperformed global peers in the past year. The pace of expansion may fall below the government’s goal of 7.5 percent and that may prompt a rate cut and/or an accelerated pace of infrastructure project approvals. Policy makers need to prove they remain in control, meaning GDP growth must finish the year at or above the target (even if it means inflation and social unrest), but for now, the following four charts suggest all is not well with the 'soft-landing'...

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver his final semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress tomorrow (July 17), followed by questions from lawmakers. Goldman expects him to strike a similar tone to his comments at last week's NBER conference - "moar of the same." The prepared testimony (released unprecedentedly early at 0830ET) is likely to be uneventful, but here are the five key questions which he would probably cover mostly during the more interesting Q&A part of the testimony.

"Perhaps the success that central bankers had in preventing the collapse of the financial system after the crisis secured them the public's trust to go further into the deeper waters of quantitative easing. Could success at rescuing the banks have also mislead some central bankers into thinking they had the Midas touch? So a combination of public confidence, tinged with central-banker hubris could explain the foray into quantitative easing. Yet this too seems only a partial explanation. For few amongst the lay public were happy that the bankers were rescued, and many on Main Street did not understand why the financial system had to be saved when their own employers were laying off workers or closing down." - Raghuram Rajan

At 27.4%, Greece's unemployment problem is the worst in the world according to Bloomberg's data, followed closely by Spain and South Africa (though of course youth unemployment is massivley worse). The US is a middle-of-the-road 34th worst if we use the standard BLS-inspired unemployment rate, though jumps to 6th (worse than Cyprus) were we to use the more appropriate U-6 under-employment rate. The good news is, there is hope... At less than 1% unemployment, Thailand offers a warm climate, pretty scenery, and a market for jobs that seems to know no bounds (though we suspect the 'quality' of those jobs will be less - but as we know in the US, that doesn't matter).