Archive - Jul 2013 - Story

"Even one cigarette is enough to trigger a smoking wage differential," is among the findings of a new (Federal Reserve sponsored) research study that shows smokers on average earn 19% less than non-smokers ($13.101 vs $16.261). Perhaps most interestingly, the researchers note that once you have been a smoker, you may as well smoke a pack a day as the differential is little affected by frequency. Once again, taxpayer money well-spent by the researchers at the Fed... Given these findings (and PhD logic) we suspect the Fed will introduce Quantitative Wheezing - aimed at 'rebalancing' the smoking imbalances... and boosting smokers' income by 24%...

Those always on the lookout for alternative indicators of economic activity may be in luck.

In the years 2006 and 2007, the underlying stability of the global economy and the U.S. credit base in particular was experiencing intense scrutiny by alternative economic analysts. A crash was coming, it was coming soon, and most of our society was either too stupid to recognize the problem or too frightened to accept the reality they knew was just over the horizon. Why did 2008 creep up on so many people? Weren’t there plenty of economists out there “preaching to the choir” at that time? Weren’t there plenty of signals? Weren’t there plenty of practical conclusions being made about the future? And yet, the world was left stunned. The truth is, human beings have a nasty habit of ignoring the cold hard facts of the present in the hopes of using apathy as a magical elixir for future prosperity. They want to believe that disaster is a mindset, that it is a boogeyman under their bed that can be defeated through blind optimism. Collapse, from a historical perspective, seems to occur when the searchlights of the individual mind are dimmest, when the threat is the greatest, and when we are most comfortable in our ignorance.

Ramp the futures for a green cash close in the Dow Jones... then pull the rug on the futures.

Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

Even with duelling Fed members today (Bullard vs Plosser) the message from 'the man' led markets on a one-way street all week. Even though Boeing impacted the Dow (and Trannies):

• S&P managed its best week in 6 months (+2.6%);
• Gold's best week in almost 8 months (+5.1% or $62);
• Treasuries' best week in 13 months (10Y -14.5bps);
  
• High Yield bonds best week in 20 months (+3%); and the
• USD's equal worst week in 21 months (-1.8%).

VIX remains modestly bid and IG credit spreads are underperforming. Market breadth today was weak as S&P volume was very low and the intraday range the lowest in 5 months. The 330ET Ramp was 10 minutes late but just as effective in its goal of running stops to a green Dow as Bullard's words seemed magical.

Much has ben written lately about the fact that the Federal Reserve is beginning to realize that they are caught in a "liquidity trap."  However, what exactly is a "liquidity trap?" And perhaps more importantly how did we end up in it - and how do we get out?

The final item of note from today's JPM release is perhaps also the most important one, and once again serves as evidence of all that is broken with the US financial system. To wit: deposits held by JPM rose modestly to a new all time high of $1,202,950 million, or $1.2 trillion. This compares to $970 billion in Q3 2008 at the time Lehman failed. What about the flip side of this key bank liability: loans. As of June 30, 2013, total JPM loans declined from $729 billion to $726 billion, the lowest since September 2012. But more disturbing, this number is $35 billion less than the $761 billion at September 2008. It means that JPM's excess deposits have now risen to a new all time high of $477 billion, up from $474 billion last quarter.

"If you think it is going to rise, you may as well double your return," is the risk-schmisk perspective one Japanese strategist notes, that appears to permeate every aspect of investing nowadays. If ever the herding recency-bias-based mentality was evident it is Japanese ETFs (which as everywhere in the world have become the primary liquidity driver - along with futures - of the underlying stocks on every exchange in the world). The double-levered Nikkei 225 ETF in Japan has seen trading activity rise an incredible 1158% year-to-date (while the broad Topix index has only seen a more 'normal' 17% rise in the same period). While institutional volume still dominates, individual investors (enamored of the crack-up boom in equities this year) have piled in like never before with 28% of Japan's trading volume now retail. This won't end well.

Thanks to some algo-based low-volume jiggery-pokery Boeing's stock managed to bounce off its 50DMA and get back up to VWAP (surprise). In the meantime, the overall volume has exploded to its highest since December 1998 - when Boeing was under a probe from Europe for price-collusion with Airbus (likely will be highest ever). The Dow recovered on this bounce too - until it was confirmed that a second Boeing 787 issue was confirmed by Thomson Airways in the UK.

That Marx's prescription for a socialist/Communist alternative to capitalism failed does not necessarily negate his critique of capitalism. Marx spent hundreds of pages analyzing capital and capitalism and relatively few sketching out a pie-in-the-sky alternative that was not grounded in historical examples or working models. So it is no surprise that his prescriptive work is an occasionally risible historical curiosity while his critique stands as a systemic analysis. Marx got a number of things right, one of which appears to be playing out on a global scale.

As Erskine Bowles notes "Everyone claims that they’re not going to let our nation default. And Lord knows we all ought to pray that they don’t. But, could it happen? You bet." But it seems the world has forgotten that between the "grand bargain' negotiations and the looming final-final debt ceiling deadline, the US fiscal situation remains troubled at best. While Washington is "only capable of focusing on one big issue at a time," dominated currently by espionage, immigration, and scandals, Bowles notes, from mid-September to mid-November the fiscal issues will be forced into the headlines and he believes there is only a 20-25% chance a deal is struck. As Stone & McCarthy notes, the Treasury will exhaust its extraordinary measures to create borrowing authority on October 31, and run out of cash on November 1.

One wonders: is bringing a full-sized fire extinguisher on your next Dreamliner trip allowed by the TSA, or is there a 100 mL size limit?

On the even of Bastille Weekend and the 100th anniversary of the Tour de France, you know it must be bad when the French-company-owned ratings agency Fitch is forced to remove its AAA rating from France. Key drivers include Debt-to-GDP projections rising and substantially weaker economic output and forecasts. Full statement below...

*SNCF CHAIRMAN SAYS TRAIN IN CRASH HAD ABOUT 370 PASSENGERS
*SNCF CHAIRMAN PEPY SAYS TRAIN CARS 3, 4, FIRST DERAILED

UPDATE: Boeing stock now down over 6% from pre-news, testing 50DMA

First it was imploding peripheral bond markets, now Europe is closing off the weak with even worse news, following reports of a burning Ethiopian Airlines 787 Dreamliner in Heathrow as well as news of a commuter train crash in Paris with numerous trapped and 8 dead according to Parisien. Boeing stock getting monkeyhammered on this latest ongoing fiasco, which for Boeing's sake better not involve the Lithium batteries...