Archive - Aug 13, 2013 - Story

In the past the Jackson Hole conference very much revolved around the Fed chairman with the opening remarks often the top (and most market-moving) news from the junket. Despite an interesting docket of speakers and presenters from a central banking perspective (as BofAML details below), with no major Fed officials scheduled to speak (and only Kuroda turning up from the rest of the major world central banks), the markets are likely to pay a lot less attention to Jackson Hole than in the past.

While today's retail sales headline data was the second miss in a row (the "longest stretch" of misses going back to january 2012), printing at 0.2% on expectations of 0.3% (with last month's 0.4% miss revised to 0.6%), the internal data was modestly better, printing at 0.5% ex autos (exp. 0.4%), and in line ex autos and gas which came right on top of the expected 0.4% increase. So overall, a wash report, and one which doesnt tip the scales in either direction. Since this was the most important August report left ahead of September, any hopes the Fed's taper would be delayed based on this data point can now be dashed. And yet, there was some other data inside the retail sales report which showed that the real weakness for the economy, that focusing on the marginal provider of "net worth" housing may be tapering, with sales at both Furniture and Home Furnishing Store Sales and Building Material and Garden Equipment suppliers declining by -1.4% and by -0.4%, further confirming that the second housing bubble has not only peaked by but going forward will be deflating ever faster.

The last time a big financial firm rushed into buying rental exposure (just as others were quietly leaving the sector in droves and when the ingenious Wall Street was coming up with such derivatives as Rent-Backed Securities to dump their exposure to dumb yield-starved Germans and Asians), it had a very unhappy ending for the buyer. That transaction of course was Lehman Brothers' rushed acquisition of landlord Archstone, which as many have noted over the years, was a big contributor to the Lehman bankruptcy once the rental payments dried up. But then again, as others have pointed out, Lehman was so deep in its real estate exposure by then it really had no choice but to keep doubling down all the way to the bitter end. Which may explain why while most other brand name hedge funds and P/E firms are now cashing out of the US housing market whose second bubble may already have peaked (only last night Goldman said that "On house prices, we have started to see the first signs of deceleration and expect a slowdown"), Blackstone, which is now the US' largest landlord, is digging in its heels and is not letting go. In fact, it is adding to its exposure - as the WSJ reported overnight, Blackstone has invested another $1 billion to purchase GE's stake in 80 apartment complexes amounting to 30,000 apartment units, located in Dallas, Atlanta and other parts of Texas and the Southeast.

• U.S. Regulator Subpoenas Banks Over Long Warehouse Queues (BBG)
• Apple Said to Prepare Holiday Refresh of IPhones to IPads (BBG)
• Fed's Yellen Says Stance on Banks Hardened (WSJ)
• Mexico opens up its energy sector (FT)
• Spin: Greek GDP marks gradual deceleration of recession (FT) ... spin aside, it dropped 4.6%, and in reality, probably over 10%
• Made-in-Canada Solution For BlackBerry Avoids Nortel Fate (BBG)
• America's Farm-Labor Pool Is Graying (WSJ)
• Video of 'lame' cattle stirs new concern over growth drugs (Reuters)
• Paulson Bid for Steinway Trumps Kohlberg Offer (WSJ)
• Egyptian government yet to decide on pro-Mursi vigils (Reuters)

It's only fitting that in a bizarro new normal, the news that passes for positive is either conflicting, reflexive or, well, simply bizarre. Last night was no exception as the "good" news came in the form of speculation that in order to promote its consumption tax hike, the Abe government would consider a corporate tax cut. How that helps the country with the 1 quadrillion yen in debt is not exactly clear, or how it makes consumer tax hikes any more palatable in a nation in which more people than anywhere in the world are retired and elderly, and thus removed from the corporate lifecycle, is just as nebulous. But the market liked it. Just as it liked the good ole' European cop out, of posting a surge in consumer confidence, or relying on reflexive indicators to represent an improvement in the economy, when in reality the only thing "improving" is the stock market. This happened when the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey soared from 36.3 to 42.0 on expectations of a 39.9 print. So one must buy futures, or that's what the GETCO algo programming says.

First it was the JCPetanic, then the JCPanic, then it became the JCPandemonium, and moments ago, the situation at the doomed retailer was downgraded once again, this time simply to JCPathetic, as the cash-burning, slow motion circus crash lurches from farce to farce, the latest news being that in a long overdue move, Bill Ackman has thrown in the towel on JCPenney and has resigned from the board. Does this mean Ackman will next be offloading his nearly 40 million JCP shares next, and just who will buy them if that is the case, we shall find out shortly. Also, maybe the company can provide an update on what is really important: its nearly (or maybe it is now more than) $2 million per day cash burn rate.