Archive - Aug 23, 2013 - Story

There is more than just loan delinquencies, unemployment rates, and PMIs that are on the rise in Europe. As we have long-feared, the relative austerity combined with high unemployment has historically always been a boiling pot for increased social unrest and it would appear this is very much the case among the most troubled peripheral nations in Europe. As Bloomberg's Niraj Shah points out, burglaries in Greece (up a stunning 63%) and Spain (53.5%) have soared since the crisis began in 2007. This compares with a European-Union-wide average increase of 7% (which is notable in and of itself) as Cyprus and Portugal also see ~20% increases in theft. With unemployment rates showing no signs of slowing, we suspect this trend will only get worse as the divide between the haves and have-nothings increases.

Now that the US has made up its mind once more and "knows" that Wednesday's chemical attack in Syria was conducted by the government and targeting the "rebels", even as the "developed" west calls for a UN investigation to determine just that, and as the US (including the CIA), Israel and Jordan have already sent an advance military force into Syria to conduct more false flag provocations and blame it on the regime, the only next step is to soften and prepare popular opinion for what comes next. And what comes next is on the front page of the WSJ this morning: "The U.S. began refining its military options for possible strikes in Syria, officials said... Officers at the Pentagon on Thursday were updating target lists for possible airstrikes on a range of Syrian government and military installations." Then again we have seen all this before. Surely, one of these times the administration will actually go ahead and push the button instead of just talking about it.

• Lew warns Congress to strike debt ceiling deal (FT)
• Central-Bank Moves Blur the View (WSJ)
• Brazil, Indonesia launch measures to shore up their currencies (FT)
• More mainstream media reminded about Fukushima - Radioactive ground water under Fukushima nears sea (AP)
• Fukushima inspectors 'careless', Japan agency says, as nuclear crisis grows (Reuters)
• New York Banker Arrested on Rape Charges in East Hampton (NYT)
• This time they mean business, for real: CFTC Moves to Rein In High-Speed Traders (WSJ)
• Britain operates secret monitoring station in Middle East (Reuters)
• Moody’s considers downgrading top US banks (FT)
• China's Bo calls wife mad after she testifies against him (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Sub-New Normal Growth Seen Vexing Next Fed Chief (BBG)
• SEC calls for cooling-off period for more staff (Reuters)

It was a quiet overnight session, in which the Nikkei was catching up to USDJPY weakness from the past two days, while China dipped once more despite the NDRC's chief economist stating China may cut RRR or conduct more reverse repos in H2 to maintain stable credit as loan growth slows down (or in other words things go back to normal). In Europe ECB's Nowotny decided to undo some of Draghi's recent work when he said that "good economic news" removes the need for a rate cut which in turn pushed the EURUSD higher (and European exports lower), even as former Cyprus central bank Orphanides said the Euro crisis may flare up after the German elections. In the UK Q2 GDP came in slightly stronger than expected at 0.7% vs 0.6% Exp. letting the GBP outperform since a need for the BOE to ease, at least in the short run, is becoming less pertinent. In amusing news, Moody’s late yesterday put six largest U.S. banks on review as it considers the effect of evolving bank resolution policies under Dodd-Frank and international regulations. As such GS, JPM, MS and WFC may be cut.