Archive - Aug 2013 - Story

From the historical perspective, concentrating virtually all systemic risk into the state is a Grand Experiment. Cheap, abundant oil, expanding working-age populations and rapidly increasing productivity conjured the illusion that the state was large enough and powerful enough to absorb infinite risk with no real consequence. The problem is the state's ability to tax/print/borrow money to cover payouts and losses is not infinite. Having transferred virtually all systemic risks to the state, we presume the state is so large and powerful that a virtually limitless amount of risk can be piled onto the state with no consequences. Offloading risk onto the state does not make the risk vanish; it simply concentrates the risk of collapse into the state itself.

Well, that was fast.

From Indian leases to negative GOFOs, from Chinese physical demand to Western bank paper gold deleveraging, and from practical mining cost floors to the ongoing playing out of the grandest experiment of monetary policy in history; there are a plethora of drivers for the price of the precious metal. But, for now, the only thing that counts is the 100-day moving average as gold prints its first positive closing breakout of 2013.

We have yet to see secondary confirmation of the following breaking news from the second largest French newspaper, Le Figaro, but if accurate, it means the Nobel Peace Prize winning president has just engaged in yet another unsanctioned by Congress war.

The Dow has its best day since August 1st but its the NASDARK that takes the biscuit with a 1.4% gain - its best day in 6 weeks. S&P 500 futures ramped all the way to recent highs, snagging stops all the way to its 50DMA once again. Trannies were the big short-squeeze high-beta muppet-killers today though +2%!! While the topic du jour will be the total farce that US equity markets have become, there was action away from stocks that bears noting. The refunding news sent the Treasury market diverging with the belly getting smacked higher in yield as the long-end rallied (the forward curve's biggest drop in 4 months). That won't help NIM but, of course, financials didn't care as the so-called 'market' lifted stocks with abandon. Commodities in general rose with WTI best breaking back above $105 (and Gold above $1375 - closing above its 100DMA). The USD ended modestly higher as JPY pushed weaker all day. AAPL had quite day, losing $500 and then regaining on the back of Icahn's save (perfactly tagging VWAPs all the way). BTFH!!!!

Wondering why the ES is soaring? Because the NYSE just broke too.

• NASDAQ HAS DECLARED SELF HELP AGAINST NYSE ARCA (ARCA)
• NASDAQ DECLARES SELF HELP AGAINST NYSE ARCA AS/OF 15:26:42 E.T
• NYSE ARCA HAVING DIFFICULTY PROCESSING OUTBOUND TAPE C QUOTES

And BATS too:

• BATS HAS DECLARED SELF-HELP AGAINST ANOTHER MARKET CENTER
• BATS SAYS ROUTING TO NYSE ARCA HAS BEEN SUSPENDED AS OF 15:39

An absolute circus meant only to preserve confidence in a rigged, manipulated system based on incorrect electronic trades.

The Nasdaq was so desperate to rush and "fix" itself, somehow in the process it forgot all about the NBBO and that the bid has to be below the ask.

Markets are 'turmoiling'...but stocks are mostly opening green green green... even as bonds hit new high yields... The market mist be fixed though - AAPL is back above $500...

Back on July 17, the New York Fed, which as always operates based on the decisions and inputs of its Primary Dealer superiors, asked the Dealer community for their thoughts on the Taper, specifically when and how much. The survey has come back and the PD community has spoken. The answer: Taper is announced, and begins, September with the first reduction in monthly purchases of $15 billion ($10Bn cut in TSY purchases, $5BN cut in MBS), eventually tapering to nothing in June 2014 when the Dealers believe QE formally ends.

Spoke to Tim. Planning dinner in September. Tim believes in buyback and is doing one. What will be discussed is magnitude.

— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) August 22, 2013

NASDAQ intends to re-open trading in all Tape C securities with a 15-minute quote only period. All stale quotes have been cleared from the UTP SIP at this time and halts have been disseminated with a reason code of T6. NASDAQ will first re-open trading in symbols ZVZZT and AAIT with a 15-minute quoting period beginning at 14:30, with trading beginning at approximately 14:45. All other securities will then be released at 14:55 with a 15-minute quote only period with trading resuming at approximately 15:10. NASDAQ will not be cancelling open orders on the book prior to a re-open. Customers who wish to cancel their orders may do so and any customer who wishes to not participate in the re-opening should cancel their orders prior to the resumption of trading.

The entire Bloomberg news feed has been overtaken with "Regulatory Halt - Extraordinary Market" messages for the last few minutes... it would seem agood time to drop that 'lowered outlook' PR or invade Syria?

The world of Industrial Design is often useful to assess everything from the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy to equity market structure (particularly timely given today's total SNAFU) to the timeless debate over the real value of gold.  As ConvergEx's Nick Colas reminds, good design is innovative, useful, aesthetically pleasing, honest and durable, whether those attributes relate to a new electronic gadget or any 'Product' in the world of high finance or economics.  Examples of "Good design" include stocks, bonds, and options – all simple, durable constructs.  "Bad design" would be the Fed’s "Taper" and current equity market structure.

While we somewhat ironically tweeted of the possibility that AAPL breaking back below the mythical $500 level was indeed responsible for the NASDAQ breaking...

Ok, who sold AAPL and broke the NASDAQ?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 22, 2013

Well a glance at the following charts shows from Nanex that may well have been the case as the chaos in the market during that time was extreme to say the least...

With US equity market trading basically halted, the world has turned to Chicago and is 'hedging' stocks. Bonds are also being sold with 5Y having just hit 1.70%.