Archive - Aug 2013 - Story

How Bad Can Things Get? Nobody knows the answer, so we have to consider our responses to a spectrum of possibilities. President Calvin Coolidge famously remarked, "If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you." While there is certainly much wisdom in this reassurance, that still leaves us the task of preparing for the one that doesn't run harmlessly into the ditch.

Freshly-minuted MBAs "are willing to sleep on a couch for a year or two, but they can't do it with the burden of student loans," is how on senior lecturer describes the entrepreneurial-spirit-sucking debt loads that college-leavers face in the new normal. Faced with mounting monthly payments, the WSJ reports that would-be-Bezos have little choice but to look for the steady paychecks that accompany a regular job. Recent surveys find that "the single largest inhibitor to entrepreneurship is the student loan" burden and it seems states are beginning to realize this growth-inhibiting reality. In order to tamp down ambition-busters such as "I would be a serial entrepreneur if it weren't for my student loans," California (and Rhode Island) are enacting legislation to reduce college costs and looking at the feasibility of temporary forbearance. While some see their student-loans as a motivator, it seems many more are forced down a different path due to the "real responsibilities."

It appears John Kerry has once more disembarked from the "Isabel" and was kind enough to share his latest incisive thoughts on the borderline civil war in non-coup'y, democratic Egypt.

The Wall Street Journal recently ran a front-page article reporting that the monetary-policy “doves,” who had forecast low inflation in the United States, have gotten the better of the “hawks,” who argued that the Fed’s monthly purchases of long-term securities, or so-called quantitative easing (QE), would unleash faster price growth. The report was correct but misleading, for it failed to mention why there is so little inflation in the US today. Those who believe that inflation will remain low should look more thoroughly and think more clearly. There are plenty of good textbooks that explain what too many policymakers and financial-market participants would rather forget.

Nothing like kicking a beached scapewhale when it's down.

It seems the headline-reading algos are in charge once again... as Fed's Bullard held an informal discussion this lunchtime, Bloomberg headlines sent the S&P 500 (the index that represents 500 major US corporations economic viability) up and down rapidly...

*BULLARD SAYS FED DOING 'WHAT IT CAN DO' TO AID U.S. RECOVERY (not so hopeful)
*BULLARD SEES 'A LOT OF RISK GOING FORWARD' OF HIGHER INFLATION (uh oh, Sell!)
*BULLARD: FED NEEDS TO MAINTAIN CRED. ON 2% INFLATION GOAL (oh wait, Buy!)
*BULLARD SAYS U.S. SHOULD MAKE BIGGEST BANKS SMALLER (umm, Sell!)

And so the game goes on...

Taper worries got you down? Then forget Europe, don't mess with China, and run from Emerging markets and instead do what all other professional traders do and chase the momentum in this best performing in 2013 stock market.

“For my own part I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.’s — I didn’t see any of that coming until it happened.” - Janet Yellen, 2010

Unlike the previously 'staged' Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations, we suspect this 'real' clip of the escalating and deadly situation in Egypt will open a few eyes to how close the nation is to civil war.

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It may be time for John Kerry to emerge from his boat and whisper a soothing word or two:

EGYPT VICE PRESIDENT ELBARADEI ANNOUNCES RESIGNATION: AFP
MURSI BACKERS SHOOT, KILL 4 POLICEMEN IN CAIRO STATION: REUTERS

But fear not: Israel has the Egypt's government's back: recall Israelis, Egyptians Cooperate on Terror. Then again, maybe escalating the region was the point all along.

As we noted last night, the current cluster of Hindenburg Omens is the most concentrated on record and today just made it worse. Critically, the Hindenburg Omen's underlying construction is indicative of a market in deep confusion with momentum, advancers, decliners, new highs, and new lows all in divergence. For the 6th day in the last 8, the market has flashed another warning that all is not well in this 'most levered ever' equity market.

Breaking from the "standard" of the past 8 months, in which JPM was drowning in Issues, for both House and Customer accounts, the firm's House accounts just saw the largest Stop (i.e. taking delivery) since December of 2012, amounting to over 210K oz.  Has JPM, flooded with demands for physical, finally thrown in the towel, and seeing that the deluge in delivery requests is "untapering", had no choice but to turn to the one place it has left to replenish its stocks: the market?

A low cost of capital is the underpinning of much of the exuberance that shareholders are showing for stocks as management are able to lever-up (in the face of deteriorating fundamentals) to reward shareholders (via buybacks or state-sponsored dividends). With rates surging in the last few days, a critical question is how much will it take to accelerate outflows from bond funds and lead to significantly wider credit spreads for corporations? As BofAML notes, the consensus is now that a 3.5% 10Y rate is enough to trigger a disorderly rotation by which institutional investors are unwilling (based on risk expectations) to bid for the yieldier credit market debt as retail flows out. This is crucial since if the credit markets sell-off, firms will be unable to fund the expectations priced into equity markets and lead to a shift back to the sidelines from risk-assets in general.

For the 12th week of the last 14, mortgage applications in the US fell this week. Despite the ongoing (though quietening) exclamation that the housing 'recovery' will continue, it is hard for even the most ardent 'believer' to still think that a rise in interest rates will have no effect on housing when mortgage actvity has collapsed by ove 50% in the last 3 months. At the lowest level since April 2011, back well below the lowest levels of the 2000s boom with home purchase and refis plunging, we suspect a few 'investors' will be rethining their theses (or finding another pillar to base their 'buys' on).