Archive - Sep 4, 2013 - Story

Now that the house "recovery" myth is blowing up before everyone's eyes, the confidence spin crew, headed by the Fed itself, is stuggling to come up with any shred of evidence that despite everything seen so far, despite spiking mortgage rates, despite the scramble to cash out of all "homes for rent" ventures, despite the rush to cash out of major rental, and housing, investments by the smartest money of all, there is still room for hope. Today's hook came courtesy of the Beige Book, which otherwise was lethargically boring (same old "modest to moderate growth"), was promptly used to serve as an theme of "construction worker shortages" across areas of the country, and thus to indicate that there is simply too much demand, and not enough supply, resulting in not enough transactions. Well, if that is true, that means that the level of construction workers already employed should be near or approaching previous capacity levels, right? Let's take a look shall we...

Presented with little comment aside to note that following last month's Porsche news, the Lambo release, and now this... the 'recovery' is truly here...

While China was absorbing all the best that the "West" had to export to it over the past three decades (credit cards, MTV, inflation, apps, youtube), it was also importing the worst. Such as a sedentary, lazy lifestyle which at a massive social scale, usually has one inevitable conclusion - diabetes. And even as the world is focused on all the other pending crashes China has to offer: housing, credit, demographic, it has been largely ignorant of what is rapidly becoming a "catastrophic" epidemic. According to Bloomberg, which cites just released findings in the Journal of the American Medical Association, "the most comprehensive nationwide survey for diabetes ever conducted in China shows 11.6 percent of adults, or 114 million, has the disease. This means that another 22 million diabetics, or the population of Australia, have been added to a 2007 estimate and means almost one in three diabetes sufferers globally is in China. By comparison in America "only" 11.3% of the population have been diagnosed with diabetes.

Wondering where we are with "war-on", "war-off" discussions? Confused at whether war is good or bad? Here is a week in the life of the S&P 500 and the Syria-related headlines that appeared to be driving it...

Aerospace technology experienced a Golden Age of rapid technological development that leveled off once fundamental technologies had matured. Investment in further advances reached a point of diminishing return: the cost of squeezing out modest gains exceeded the profit potential of the advances. We can expect the same trajectory of change in consumer electronics: it will be ubiquity that creates change, rather than technological leaps in capabilities.

While John Kerry remains adamant that it is "undeniable" that the Assad regime was behind the chemical weapon attacks in Syria, the results of Russia's probe suggest the truth is anything but undeniable...

• *RUSSIA SAYS SHELL USED IN ATTACK WASN'T STANDARD SYRIA ORDNANCE
• *RUSSIA SAYS SHELL USED IN CHEMICAL ATTACK WAS MAKESHIFT DEVICE
• *RUSSIA SAYS GAS USED IN SYRIA WASN'T INDUSTRIALLY PRODUCED

And perhaps most critically, as Reuters reports, the foreign minstry statement asserts that Russian expert findings show the weapon used in the Syrian chemical attack was similar to the ones made by a rebel group.

After strong performance for the last 3 months as investors around the world turn their eye towards Europe as the hot-money inflow area for clean dirty shirt macro tourists, the core of Europe's hope, Germany, has seen its equity market stumble a little recently. Since Monday alone, the DAX is down 2%, underperforming such stalwart economies as Spain and Greece. The reason, aside from international money flows and "war-" and "Taper"-premia, appears to be worries that Merkel may be losing popularity. After 17 million watched the German debates on Sunday night, opinion polls show Merkel's opposition, Peer Steinbruck, surged in popularity...

Yesterday, it was the Senate committee on foreign relations, today it is the House committee on foreign affairs' turn. Hagel, Kerry, and a seemingly begrudging General Dempsey trudge across the street to re-pitch the 'surgical, 90-day minimum, no-well-maybe-some-boots-on-the-ground' "use of force in Syria," and "weighing the Obama Administration's Response."

European sovereign bond spreads are notably wider on the day as anxiety over Berlusconi buggering-up Italian politics' status quo once again sent investors scurrying from risk-assets early on in the European day. Italian stocks were down 2% (and the rest of themarket down around 1%) before McCain's confirmation of a 'no-vote on narrow scope' seemed to trigger bigger-deficit-spending exuberance in stocks in the US and Europe. The USD was sold (Taper-off) and Treasuries bid which sent EUR higher and AUD surging (AUD's best 3-day run in 21 months!!). European stocks turned back higher in a ridiclously correlated manner to US equities leavingh only Italy red by the end of the day.

We have yet to see a western newswire confirmation of this breaking news from the Russian news site RIA, but if true, it likely means that contrary to some speculation that Putin is leaning toward an diplomatic agreement over Syrian strikes, the reality is just the opposite. From RIA, Google translated:

• U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY IS NOT TO ARRIVE IN PETERSBURG SUMMIT G20 - diplomatic sources

Take it with a grain of salt until there is secondary verification.

President Obama's speech last during the 50th anniversary of MLK may seem sadly ironic now. As he noted, "Dr. King explained that the goals of African-Americans were identical to working people of all races: decent wages, fair working conditions, livable housing..." but the facts are that, as Bloomberg reports, while, for most Americans, the real estate crash is finally behind them and personal wealth is back where it was in the boom. For blacks in the U.S., 18 years of economic progress has vanished, with a rebound in housing slipping further out of reach and the unemployment rate almost twice that of whites. The homeownership rate for blacks fell from 50% during the housing bubble to 43% in the second quarter, the lowest since 1995. The rate for whites stopped falling two years ago, settling at about 73%, only 3 percentage points below the 2004 peak. As Rev. Alvin Love, who knew Obama in the 80s notes, "it's going to take a generation to get back to the point where homeownership can build wealth in this community."

Late last night news broke that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee had proposed a resolution for US involvement in Syria which among other things, would limit Obama's Syrian military strike - whose "clinical" purpose and intentions are still very much unclear - to 90 days. As reported earlier, Republican war hawk John McCain said he would not support the resolution, arguably because he hopes to see a wider, more spread out campaign, one which would certainly infuriate Russia and China. Or a simpler reason: the usual bipartisan breakdown in Congress strikes again. Moments ago, yet another republican who previously said he was for Obama's campaign following Boehner's support, the committee's top republican Bob Corker got cold feet, and as Politico reports, may delay if not scuttle the Senatorial vote altogether.

The following chart from Bank of America shows that while as a result of record low interest rates housing affordability until very recently was at record highs (if mostly for those with access to subsidized REO-to-Rent loans or the 60% "all cash" flippers/buyers), this index has plunged in recent months, is back to 2008 levels, and has effectively trimmed its spread to the long-term historical average by half.

It seems the exuberance of a recovering housing market has spread not just to Ford, Toyota, and GM this morning but to the luxury-end of the 'renaissance'-ing auto industry... Because nothing says 'recovery' like a $4.4 million, 750 horsepower, 6.6 liter V12 'Batmobile'-style Lambo...