Archive - Sep 2013 - Story

• JPMorgan eyes $4bn ‘pay for peace’ deal (FT)
• Prosecutors Pursue Big SAC Settlement (WSJ) - in the US if you are rich enough, no crime is bad enough
• Cruz's Defiant Stand Is Also a Lonely One (WSJ); Texas senator speaks for more than 14 hours (FT)
• Iran Applies Brakes to U.S. Mideast Plans (WSJ)
• Americans in Poll Doubt Economy Rebound in Defiance of Forecasts (BBG)
• Big Banks Cut Basel III Shortfall by $112 Billion at End of 2012 (BBG) - the equivalent of 10 bridges to the Kalahari desert
• Obama’s Jabs at Russia on Syria Shows Diplomacy Tensions (BBG)
• ICAP Staff Face Criminal Charges Tied to Libor  (WSJ)
• Alibaba Is Said to Shift Target for I.P.O. to U.S. From Hong Kong (NYT)
• Home gold rush is over (Reuters)
• Conoco in landmark Alaska drone flight (FT)

Early weakness in Asia driven by US-follow thru selling and ongoing concerns about the us fiscal showdowns as well as the debt ceiling, if not by actual news, resulted in a red close in both the Nikkei and SHCOMP, as well as other regional indices such as the Sensex. This then shifted to Europe, where however stocks reversed the initial move lower and are seen broadly flat, with Bunds remaining bid on the back of month-end, as well as coupon and redemption related flows. However the move higher in stocks was led by telecommunications and health care sectors, which indicates that further upside will require another positive catalyst. There was little in terms of fresh EU related macroeconomic commentary, but according to a report published by the European Banking Authority, the EU’s biggest 42 banks cut their aggregate capital shortfall with respect to the “fully loaded” 2019 Basel III requirements to €70.4bln as of December 2012. This is amusing since not one European bank has actually raised capital, but merely redefined what constitutes capital courtesy of a liberal expansion of RWA, Tier 1 and various other meaningless definition which works until such time as the perilous European balance kept together by the non-existent OMT, is tipped over.

When we pointed out AIG CEO Benmosche's somewhat disconnected-from-reality comments comparing banker-treatment to lynchings of black people in the deep south, we suspected there would be fallout. Sure enough, none other than Rep. Elijah Cummings (among the leading investigators into the 2008 excesses that led to AIG's bailout) has called for Benmosche to "resign his position as CEO immediately." Cummings stated: “As the leading critic of AIG’s lavish spending before and after its taxpayer funded bailout - and as the son of sharecroppers who actually experienced lynchings in their communities - I find it unbelievably appalling that Mr. Benmosche equates the violent repression of the African American people with congressional efforts to prevent the waste of taxpayer dollars..." We await the "...out of context..." retractions tomorrow...

Goldman Sachs is once again predicting that gold will fall, setting a new near-term target of $1,050. Never mind the schizophrenic gene that would be required to follow the constantly fluctuating predictions of all these big banks. Sure, the too-big-to-fails can move markets - but they say things that are good for them, not us. As an example, while Goldman Sachs was telling clients and the public to sell gold in the second quarter, they bought 3.7 million shares of GLD and became the ETF's 7th largest holder. When we visited China, guess who no one was talking about? Goldman Sachs. Since January 1, gold ETF holdings have fallen by roughly a quarter (26%, according to GFMS). But Chinese housewives aren't refraining from buying and certainly aren’t selling...

Back in April, in a desperate scramble to raise liquidity courtesy of a hail mary Goldman syndicated term loan, we penned "Confused By What Is Going On At JCP? Here's The Pro Forma Cap Table And The Cliff Notes", where in addition to the obvious - that this is merely buying a few months for the melting icecube company which with every passing day is closer to a Chapter 11 (or 7) bankruptcy filing - we also laid out that what Goldman was doing was merely positioning itself to be at the top of the company's capital structure with a super secured and overcollateralized credit facility, through what is effectively a pre-petition DIP...  As it turns out we only had to wait for five months before the same Goldman that raised the company's emergency liquidity term loan turned around and launched a vicious attack on the same company that paid it millions in dollars in underwriting fees. Specifically, what Goldman just did is write a report (perhaps one of the best bearish cross-asset investment theses we have seen to come out of the firm in a long time) in which it laid out, in a lucid and compelling manner, why JCP is doomed. The report is titled appropriately enough: "Initiate on JCP with Underperform: Looking for cash in the name"... and not finding it.

While some have argued that the Fed is flying blind, given their endless efforts to convince the market that their actions (or inactions) are now all data-dependent - what happens when that data simply does not exist? As SMRA notes, the official word from the BLS is that they are working under the assumption that there will not be a government shutdown and the employment data will be released as scheduled; but what happens if the un-negotiation reaches beyond October 1st? How will our central-planners know what to do?

Yesterday we highlighted the plight of Tom Palome and his cohorts as they face a need to work well into once-thought-retirement age. However, there are hundreds of formerly prosperous communities all over America that are being steadily transformed into rotting, decaying hellholes. The good paying middle class jobs that once supported those communities are long gone, and they have been replaced with low paying service jobs if they have been replaced at all. When you visit those communities, it is almost as if all of the hope has been sucked right out of the air. The following are 20 quotes from ordinary Americans about the economic despair that is rapidly growing around them.

Goldman, in line with consensus and PaddyPower, now expects the President to nominate Janet Yellen to be the next Federal Reserve Chair and despite comments yesterday from thw White House, they expect the announcement to come soon. However, this week's political calendar may be too crowded to make an announcement. Assuming a government shutdown is avoided, an announcement could come as soon as early next week; but they note the President's schedule may force an announcement to the following week. The risk of a failed confirmation vote appears very low to them but with the debt ceiling debate and concerns over delays due to fears over asset-purchases, Yellen may not be confirmed before the December FOMC meeting. The following Q&A answers most of the critical questions.

When it comes to the "fairness doctrine", there was always some confusion in the matter of work ethic: how was it fair that some should work under the socialism-endorsed confines of a 29.5 hour workweek, while being forced to suffer the indignity and moral denigration of watching others labor under the faux guise of capitalism, putting in 60, 80, even 100 or more hours per week in the pursuit of self-actualization, contentment and general happiness? Furthermore, as has been well documented, despite rumors the contrary, the biggest incubator of neosocialism the "fairness doctrine" is not the US, nor Leningrad (sic), but France.... Sephora's flagship Champs Élysées cosmetics store, one which attracts six million people a year or nearly as many as the Eiffel Tower, has been ordered by a French appeals court to close at 9 pm at the latest because it "breached work-time regulations by hosting customers until midnight on weekdays and 1 am on weekends."

A few years back Chairman Bernanke was asked by a financial reporter how confident he was that the Fed could easily start the process of withdrawing from the accommodation of “unorthodox” monetary policy. Some might argue (ourselves included) that the answer 'should' be something like “very confident” or “We feel we have the right tools and the right people to manage that process”. Instead the answer given was “100%”. At last week's press conference, Chairman Bernanke, in CitiFX Technicals' view, looked like the “cat that got the cheese", despite the more downbeat message he was giving? Why? Because he got his way. In their “conspiracy theory” interpretation it is likely that Janet Yellen’s nomination will indeed be announced in the near future and that tapering is now firmly back off the table despite the guidance given in recent months to the contrary. Bonds seem to agree (so far).

CNBC just aired a fascinating segment that pitted anchors Mandy Drury and Brian Sullivan (squarely in the markets-are-going-up-and-the-world-must-be-rosy camp) against a more skeptical Herb Greenberg and an awfully fact-based reality agent - Peter Boockvar. Well worth taking the time to witness the cognitive dissonance of believing the market strength is unrelated to the Fed and yet a Fed unable to Taper even a few billion for fear of repercussions... as Boockvar notes, "there is 0% chance this ends well."

For those willing to share in the next few hours of defund-Obamacare discussion from Senator Ted Cruz (tag-teaming a little with Rand Paul) as he talks his way through the night (having started at 2:41pm ET) - ending only when he is "no longer able to stand," or the 15-hour Senate floor limit; the following link provides the blow-by-blow (water works and all).

Despite President Obama's heavy focus on Iran in his speech this morning, a potential encounter at the UN (like ships passing in the night?) between the US President and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani failed to take place. Iranian officials indicated that "it was too complicated," and "there will be no meeting." As Reuters reports, the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told reporters that Obama had been open to a meeting with Rouhani while both were in New York for U.N. activities but the Iranians were not ready to have an encounter at the presidential level. The good news - following Rouhani's speech decrying external intervention and use of drones - John Kerry will meet with his Iranian counterpart - that should end well.

We listened to President Obama with bated breath... one wonders how many times President Rouhani will mention the US...

*IRAN POSES NO THREAT TO THE WORLD OR REGION, ROHANI SAYS
*MOVE TO REDRAW POLITICAL BORDERS DANGEROUS, PROVOCATIVE: ROHANI
*IRAN IS A HARBINGER OF JUST PEACE AND SECURITY, ROHANI SAYS
*ROHANI CRITICIZES VIOLATIONS OF PALESTINIANS' RIGHTS

*USE OF DRONES TO FIGHT TERRORISM SHOULD BE CONDEMNED: ROHANI

"I knew of the Fed decision and growth forecasts around 5-6 minutes before 2 pm last Wednesday, even though I was not there. I work at a news organization represented at the Fed statement “lockup” and the Bernanke press conference last week. This was in no way secure the way the Labor and Commerce Department lockups are. Those in the Fed statement lockup were able to communicate by text message and email after they received the statements and before 2 pm. Those in the room awaiting the press conference also were able to communicate electronically after the received the statement, several minutes before 2 pm. Everything was honor-based, but anyone in their respective newsrooms could have gotten the information early from them and passed it on. Given the large number of reporters involved, there are many ways the decision could have gotten into the market several minutes before the announcement. I am truly surprised it was only seen in gold trade.  The fact is, though, the Fed made it possible for many people to leak it."