Archive - Sep 2013 - Story

Three weeks ago we explained the importance of the looming cliff - in the government's reserves of helium. With a never-ending pun-trail related to "hot-air" or markets "blowing up", we stick to the facts. With the threat of a glonal helium shortage potentially weighing on fibre-optic cables and flat-screen TVs, the always-reaady-to-negotiate members at the Senate have agreed to support an amendment that prevents the October 7th termination of the helium storage program. So thanks to political "hot air" (we couldn't resist), the helium cliff is resolved... why so easy you wonder? Perhaps this is why "...Helium is also used in national defense applications such as rocket engine testing and purging, surveillance devices, air-to-air missiles and scientific balloons."

Yesterday, when in the aftermath of the Fed's "shocking" announcement bond yields plunged, the bond kings, both old and new couldn't get to a media outlet fast enough to express their euphoria over the end of the selloff. Gross tweeted immediately that he was "not bragging but what did we tell you" while Gundlach added that he "sees a change in Psychology with the 10 Year below 2.7%." It is unclear just what psychological change he was referring to, because looking at the market it was one of resumed selling: as of moments ago, the 10 Year has retraced over a third of its plunge and is back to 2.75% and rising once again; and the 30Y has retraced over 50% of its gains at 3.80%. We are going to need another un-Taper soon.

Earlier we noted the European economic 'recovery' is rolling over rapidly, and now - confirmed by Adidas - it seems the impact of weakening JPY and weakenig USD are starting to weigh on European companies:

• *ADIDAS CUTS 2013 NET INCOME FORECAST TO EU820M-850M RANGE (from EU890-920m)
• *ADIDAS CITES FURTHER WEAKENING OF SEVERAL CURRENCIES VS EURO

With EURJPY at four-year highs and EURUSD back at 2013 highs, it seems the reality of currency wars are coming home to Draghi - when's the next ECB meeting?

How could the Fed have known?

JAPAN EARTHQUAKE LEVEL 5+ ON JAPANESE SCALE OF 7 IN FUKUSHIMA
EARTHQUAKE REPORTED TO HAVE HIT AT 02:25:09 JAPAN TIME: JMA
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE 5.8, AGENCY SAYS

Of course, we are sure Abe will just rebuild it all, ringfence it with another ice-wall, and welcome athletes from all around the world to his 'stable' nation.

The "market is in a state of shock" after the Fed's decision to postpone taper, noted Credit Agricole's David Keeble adding that "Fed credibility and its communication strategy are in tatters." This, as others have noted, will make it many times more difficult to manipulate yields lower in the future as the "Fed is moving to a new way of looking at asset purchases." As we explained in detail 15 months ago, Keeble notes the Fed appears to have clearly signaled that the degree of accomodation is not linked to size of the Fed balance sheet, but that the flow of Fed buying is "very important."

So, it's the flow, not the stock; and that means, as we noted here, that unless The Fed is actively engaged in monetization at every given moment, the impact from easing diminishes progressively; ultimately approaching zero and subsequently becoming negative.

When the absolutely useless reign of the "captured" SEC head Mary Schapiro came to an end, only to be replaced with former Wall Street darling, former Debevoise lawyer Mary Jo White whose prior Wall Street clients were virtually all financial firms, many said her appointment was an epic blunder, since she would have no choice but to recuse herself out of the majority of SEC enforcement actions. And if not many, then certainly Zero Hedge. Recall from April: "Think the revolving door for Morgan Stanley's diaspora of clutch interests goes only from the private sector outward, with the recent appointment of MS' darling Mary Jo White (who will promptly recuse herself in virtually all major cases involved her former clients at Debevoise for years to come) to head the SEC? Think again. Sure enough moments ago, as part of the SEC's perhaps most important action in history, in which the agency managed to get a confirmation of securities law violation from none other than the largest US bank, JP Morgan, where was Mary Jo White? Why quietly drinking her coffee in some quiet corner of course, for one simple reason: she had to recuse herself as JPM was, you guessed it, a former client.

Having crossed the $1,000 Maginot Line, Priceline.com became the first company in the S&P 500's 56-year history to trade at that level. As WSJ reports, the company reached a high of $1,001, before settling at $995.09, up 2.6%. It's up 60% so far this year. 25 of the 30 analysts that cover the stock still have this firm as "Buy" with a target of $1,112 trading at a P/E of 32. Priceline's shares have flirted with $1,000 before. During the dot-com bubble, it topped out split-adjusted closing high of $974.25 in April 1999. The stock had a meltdown in the years that followed, closing below $7 a share in October 2002. Of course, it's different this time...

BREAKING: Russian President Vladimir Putin says he may seek 4th presidential term in 2018.

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 19, 2013

Yesterday it was Goldman capitulating on their near-term gold, er, capitulation reco (expectedly so after gold ripped over $75 in the span of 24 hours). Now, it is Bank of America's turn to close their silver short. To wit: "The Wednesday Bullish Candlestick formations (Bullish Engulfing Candles) in gold and silver say that our bearish view on precious metals now incorrect. Indeed, this is supported by the US $ breakdown and the increasingly constructive environment for risk assets generally. As such, we are cutting our Silver Short and moving to the sidelines. Silver should see a test of long term resistance at 24.24/26.23, in the sessions and weeks ahead while gold should re-test its 1433, August highs. In both cases, watch trendlines at 23.20 & 1375. A close above confirms the bullish candles and upside trajectories." When was the trade put on? September 4.

Sounds like the 'negotiation' is going great...

• *BOEHNER SAYS HEALTH CARE LAW 'MUST GO,' IS COSTING JOBS
• *BOEHNER SAYS DEFICIT REDUCTION IN PAST TIED TO DEBT LIMIT DEALS

And while noting that Obama was willing to 'deal' with Russia's Putin, Boehner added that "not engaging" threatens the US economy.

"I sometimes feel I am in a parallel universe. Maybe I am... It?s like they're on a train which they know to be heading for a crash, but it is accelerating so rapidly they?'re scared to jump off." - Albert Edwards

The outlook for the economy, based on Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index dropped to a 13-month low this morning. This must be great news for the bulls in the equity market of course and perhaps nowhere is that better indicated than the record high spread between the 'comfort' of the wealthy and the 'comfort' of the poor. Those with an income over $99,000 per year are the most comfortable they have been in 6 years while the lower incomes (below $40,000) have seen their comfort plunge to one-year lows. It seems, as Druck noted earlier, that the wealth redistribution is having a visceral effect on sentiment.

It is unknown whether the Philly Fed was using the BLS' pre-upgrade computers to calculate their diffusion index of broad manufacturing conditions, but the bottom line is that while the Fed is telling the market the economy is deteriorating and is adjusting its GDP forecast accordingly, the manufacturers in the Philadelphia region did not get the memo, and as a result the general business activity number soared from 9.3 to 22.3, more than double the expected 10.3. This was driven by a jump in both New Orders and Shipments, both printing at 21.2, a jump in Inventories to -1.8 from -11.3, as well as the Number of Employees and the Average Employee workweek, which soared from low single digits and negative, to over 10 each. The only negative in the report is that while Prices Paid jumped to 25.3, prices received barely budged. Then again, with the Fed micromanaging everything now, who needs profits when one can just go public and sell stock indefinitely.

Reflecting on exactly what was said yesterday, Duquesne's Stanley Druckenmiller is initially perplexed as Bernanke explained 'financial conditions' - not interest rates - have prompted the decision to forestall any taper. His confusion is that financial conditions are actually slightly better than they were in June and "a stock market at an all-time high would suggest we don't have a problem with financial conditions." While he dismisses surveys, the big-money was betting that they were going to taper as is clear from the moves in gold, bonds, and stocks; and it appears the Fed "lost their nerve." In fact, Druck continues, the Fed "blew it... they had a freebie," they could have started the process to "get us off the dope." This action, or inaction, he warns "is going to make it so much harder for the next Chairman to start the process." In fact, he concludes, that from beginning to end - once markets adjust from these subsidized prices - that the wealth effect of QE will have been negative not positive.