Archive - 2013 - Story

While the world and their cat believes that Mario Draghi saved the world last year - and continues to do so with his open-ended promise to do "whatever it takes" whatever that means (and the market's "positive contagion"). However, the reality, away from a sovereign-bond implied view of the world - with short-dated Spanish bonds now at 26-month low yields (whereby these bonds are sucked up wholesale by an ever more concentrated and self-satisfying group of European banks) is far different. As these two charts show, not only does Draghi's decision not to lower rates (when inflation and unemployment - both more 'real-world economy'-impacting items) indicate Taylor-Rule-esque that rates need cutting; but while banks get all they want (and more) from his over-flowing cup or collateralization and repo, credit extension in Europe continues to slide ever more negatively. Yes, Draghi saved the banks (for now) but, just as the scariest chart shows, Europe is very far from saved; and for those looking at TARGET-2 imbalances, the risk remains, it has merely shifted to the core.

Regular readers are familiar with our monthly series showing the inexorable surge in Chinese gold imports. It is time for the November update, and it's a doozy: at 90.8 tons, this was the second highest gross import number of 2012, double the 47 tons imported in October (which many saw, incorrectly, as an indication of China's waning interest in the yellow metal), and brings the Year to Date total to a massive 720 tons of gold through November. If last year is any indication, the December total will be roughly the same amount, and will bring the total 2012 import amount to over 800 tons, double the 392.6 tons imported in 2011.

In today's WTF moment, we note that the inexorable rise from the March 2009 lows to the most recent September 2012 highs has created exactly the same 807 point rise that the last bubble-blown levitation managed (from October 2002 to October 2007) . Curiouser and curiouser... and from a suspiciously devilish 666 low print, we can only hope our behavioral biases can cope with these glimpses.

As Der Spiegel reports, capital flight from Southern Europe has stopped and even slightly reversed in recent months. This is a belated reaction – so it is surmised – to the 'OMT' announcement effect. However, the move is still quite small at this stage, although we suspect that several officially unconcerned central bankers in the 'core' are letting out a sigh of relief that their TARGET claims haven't just risen even further. However, as Hans-Werner Sinn reminds us, the calming of the situation is entirely due to the risks having been shifted: "The debt crisis is eating its way ever further into the budgets of Europe's core countries," he says. "But policymakers are celebrating the obfuscation of this fact as a success."

On December 20, when we posted on the miraculous surge in the Philly Fed, offsetting the far weaker NY Fed data, we were left scratching our heads as the upwardly inflecting data made little sense in the context of broader data. To wit: "Three days ago the New York Fed released the December print Empire State index which showed a broad contraction across all key verticals. Today, in fine "keeping them baffled with bullshit" form, the Philly Fed swing precisely the other way, and despite expectations for a second consecutive negative print of -3 to be precise, up from -10.7 last month, the General Business Activity indicator printed at 8.1, the highest print since April, with New Orders at 10.7, the highest since February, and Employment at 3.6, the highest since April. Naturally, the algos pretending to trade on news, took this news and ran futures higher..." We also added, rather providently, "Needless to say, all economic data in the US at this point is completely meaningless, with regional distortions, seasonal adjustments, political pressures and overall central planning making a mockery of the US economic data apparatus." Today, 20 days after the data release, we get the explanation for this very surprising jump, which naturally put the algos in a buying tizzy and sent the market higher by 1% (before it flash crashed late in the night) on the date of its release, as well as the latest validation of our skepticism, courtesy of the Philly Fed annual data revision. So how does December looks like pre and post-revision? Well, it is self-explanatory: look at the chart and decide for yourselves - blue is original, red is revised.

As Herbalife's CEO denigrates Bill Ackman's "insulting to real Americans" presentation, it appears the short-squeeze-a-palooza progresses. While this is far short of Volkswagen-esque explosives, the 'Ackman-Gap' has been filled (trading up to its 50DMA) and from here on out, based on the build in short-interest we have seen, young William is going further under-water (and along with him Mr. Tilson). Of course, following Mr. Loeb's stake yesterday, we suspect all it takes now is for another major hedge fund name coming out with a 13-G exposing a position big enough to require the already hard-to-borrow (and extremely high cost of borrow) shorts to have their borrow bought in from under them to really set this 'game' on fire.

We already posted Howard Marks' most recent letter in its entirety previously, but it bears reposting a section from Art Cashin's daily letter which focuses on one segment of Marks' thoughts, which is especially relevant in light of today's most recent comment from one Warren Buffett - a person who very directly benefited from the government/Fed's bailout of the banking sector in 2008 - who said that "Bank Risk No Longer Threatens U.S. Economy." The same banks, incidentally, who are TBerTFer than ever. An objective assessment or merely yet another example of the "handcuff volunteerism" (not to mention crony hubris) Marks touches on? Readers can decide on their own.

Have you ever felt powerless?  That no matter what you do it just won't make ANY difference.  You cast your vote for people to represent your best wishes but are repeatedly let down.   What can you possibly do? This is a great video from Larken Rose that clarifies the problem that we face today in our economy. It is a situation that is just too weird for 99.99% of the people to adequately explain. No commentary is needed.

The credit markets this week already look very different to how they ended last year. As BofAML's Barnaby Martin notes, beta-compression, flatter curves and credit outperformance versus equity have all been abundant themes of late. Relative value is still there, when one looks closely, but is unfortunately not what it used to be. He adds that "things in credit have started to feel a lot like 2007 again," and while he believes the trend is set to continue (though slower) and the liquidity-flooded fundamentals in the high-yield bond market have been holding up well, it is trends in the leveraged loan market, that continue to deteriorate, that are perhaps the only canary in the coal-mine worth watching as global central bank liquidity merely slooshes to the highest spread product in developed markets (until that is exhausted). The rolling 12m bond default rate among European high-yield issuers fell to 1.8% in December, whereas loan default rates rose to 8.5%. With leverage rising, the hope for ever more greater fools continues, even as everyone is forced into the risky assets.

The market has completely forgotten about the cliff (i.e., sequester and other, if any, spending cuts), about the debt ceiling, about the drag on the economy from the payroll tax increase, about central bank currency warfare, and is now fully engrossed by the hedge fund war between Ackman (and possibly Chanos, certainly Tilson) vs Loeb (and possibly Icahn) over the valuation of Herbalife: $0 or $60. Which is why today's HLF "analyst day" investor presentation - whose sole purpose is to refute Ackman's 300+ page monster accusing HLF of being a pyramid scheme - may be the most discussed event by carbon-based traders.

At the height of the financial crisis in 2008, Deutsche Bank made some extraordinarily large bets. As the WSJ reports, documents uncovered from the Libor rate manipulation investigation show huge outsized bets that would swing EUR68 million on a 1bps shift in the Libor rate that they have since been charged with manipulating. Sure enough, with regards the risk (which was large enough to be brought to management's attention), officials "dismissed those concerns because the bank could influence the rates they were betting on."

Initial claims came, saw and missed for the 4th week in a row, printing at 371K, on expectations of a decline from 372K to 365K. As happens at the end of every year when employers turn on the pink sheet machine, the not seasonally adjusted number soared from 490K to 552K in the week ending January 5, a difference to the seasonally adjusted print of 181K. This is to be expected. What was unexpected is that the last week print saw its first downward adjustment in what seems years (it actually is years), with the December 29 week claims number declining from 372K to 367K, probably as a result of all the year end guessing that goes on to assist the other guessing that goes into the seasonal adjustment guessing. In short: everyone is guessing. States that saw a surge in layoffs in the week ended December 29 were MI (+15K) and PA (+12K) due to "Layoffs in the manufacturing industry", and  "Layoffs in the transportation, construction, food and beverage manufacturing, and metals industries." Finally those claiming extended benefits plunged by 76K in the last week of 2012, putting further pressure on the strength of the US consumer. Overall a report that confirms that 6 years after the start of the Depression, propped by some $15 trillion in central bank reserve liquidity injections the bulk of which has been used to prop stock markets, there is still no actual improvement in the economy.

Last time around, Draghi hinted at a fresh round of rate cuts. Nothing happened. In today's press conference, he will likely hint at it again, and nothing will happen once more: for now the ongoing threat of a Spanish bailout (now in its 6th month) has pushed Spanish 2 year yields to the lowest level since 2010, which means the ECB is safely out of the picture for a while, or at least until the Spanish social security funds runs out of all cash to buy Spanish bonds. Only then, will the ECB be forced out of hibernation.

Judging by ongoing momentum moves in various European stock and bond market indicators, one could be left with the impression that something in the continent is actually improving. And while hope of improvement is certainly be high, the reality is vastly different as confirmed by the just released Greek unemployment data, which saw the broad unemployment rate soar to a fresh record high of 26.8% in October (24.1% males, 30.4% females - that's nearly one in three), up from a pre-revision 26.0% in September, and up from 19.7% a year ago, the youth (15-24 age group) unemployment rising again to a new all time high of 56.6% (up from 56.4%), and the ratio of those employed (3.68MM) to unemployed (1.34MM) plunging to a record low 2.75x. At this rate it may well hit 1.00x quite soon. But even sooner, perhaps in a few months, the total number of inactive workers (3.34MM) will surpass all those who are working. In short, the Greek collapse is just getting worse and worse.

No change from the ECB as expected, and despite a hint by Draghi last time that the governing council may cut rates, it did not. The boredom continues until 8:30 am Eastern when Draghi takes the podium and resumes his rendition of Greenspan.