Archive - Jan 24, 2014 - Story

China’s GDP will almost certainly soon surpass America’s in absolute terms. The end of the unipolar era will create new dangers that the world mustn’t overlook. China’s relative rise and the United States’ relative decline carries significant risks, for the rest of the world probably more so than for Americans. Odds are, the world will be worse off if China and especially others reach parity with the U.S. in the coming years. This isn’t to say America is necessarily as benign a hegemon as some in the U.S. claim it to be. Regardless of your opinion on U.S. global leadership over the last two decades, however, there is good reason to fear its relative decline compared with China and other emerging nations. To begin with, hegemonic transition periods have historically been the most destabilizing eras in history.

Following research last week suggesting that HSBC has a major capital shortfall, the fact that several farmer's co-ops were unable to pay back depositors in China, and, of course, the liquidity crisis in China itself, news from The BBC that HSBC is imposing restrictions on large cash withdrawals raising a number of red flags. The BBC reports that some HSBC customers have been prevented from withdrawing large amounts of cash because they could not provide evidence of why they wanted it. HSBC admitted it has not informed customers of the change in policy, which was implemented in November for their own good: "We ask our customers about the purpose of large cash withdrawals when they are unusual... the reason being we have an obligation to protect our customers, and to minimise the opportunity for financial crime." As one customer responded: "you shouldn't have to explain to your bank why you want that money. It's not theirs, it's yours."

In the last year Bitcoin has gone 'viral'. As ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, a lot has happened in 2013: Price appreciation, yes, from $20 to +$800 – the result of this online “Currency” going from science project to mainstream topic.  Volatility too – disruptive technologies seldom travel a level path. The story, Colas notes, is about to change, and there are three critical gates which bitcoin must navigate in the New Year.  First is regulation, and we will get a good dose of that next Tuesday and Wednesday when the New York State Department of Financial Services holds hearings on bitcoin and potentially issuing a ‘Bitlicense’ to help regulate business which transact in the currency.  Second is adoption – how will existing businesses incorporate bitcoin into their sales, marketing and payment channels.  Lastly will be volatility, which will have to come down in 2014 to encourage broader use.

Have you been paying attention to what has been happening in Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Ukraine, Turkey and China?  If you are like most Americans, you have not been.  Most Americans don't seem to really care too much about what is happening in the rest of the world, but they should.  In major cities all over the globe right now, there is looting, violence, shortages of basic supplies, and runs on the banks.  We are not at a "global crisis" stage yet, but things are getting worse with each passing day.  Many have felt that 2014 could turn out to be a major "turning point" for the global economy, and so far that is exactly what it is turning out to be.  The following are 20 early warning signs that we are rapidly approaching a global economic meltdown...

Dick Clark didn't poll America to determine their taste in music. He told them their taste in music ... not directly, but by creating common knowledge — ideas that a crowd believes that the crowd believes. With the American Bandstand group dance staging and scripted questions, Clark allowed the TV audience to see a crowd of attractive young people act as if the music were popular. This is all it takes. Clark didn't have to force his preferred choice of popular culture on his audience like some centrally-planned Ministry of Culture. The TV audience chose it all on their own, thinking all along it was their choice! This is the power of the Emperor's New Clothes. This is the power of the sitcom laugh track and the live studio audience. This is the power of public coronations and executions. This is the power of Tahrir Square and Tiananmen Square. This is the power of the crowd seeing the crowd, and it is the most potent force in the social world.  It's certainly the most potent force in the social world of markets, and every Central Banker today is playing the Common Knowledge Game just as hard as Dick Clark ever did.

Well, they did predict this would happen, even if it was in direct contradiction with the numerator part of Goldman's top trade of 2014 which is being long the S&P500.

While the world's talking heads are desperately opening their global financial crisis fire-extinguishing mouths that this time is different, Rick Santelli takes 4 minutes to highlight the problems associated with liquidity that is always leveraged to the max and the problems that now await us. "For a while," Santelli calmly explains, the fairy-dust commercial planners (Central banks) "at least for a while, made everything seem like it could work." However, with "no excess margin in the system," emerging-market-cannonball-driven ripples in the global pool of liquidity are a major problem. Slamming those who argue 'taper is small' or 'Argentina doesn't matter'; the ever-increasing central-bank-inspired interconnectedness means "the market is realizing in a hurry," as we have warned numerous times, "these [central bank] programs can't go on forever,"

Once upon a time, the only CME margin hike releases the investing population cared about were those for gold (because no matter how high the E-Mini went, the CME never seemed too bothered). Now, the CME has more "important" things to worry about - such as preventing the "heating bill shock" that will come in February when the majority of the population opens their electricity and heating statements for January (sorry, there goes the discretionary retail spending cash). And of course, the ongoing deterioration of the emerging markets, in this case led by Turkey and the absolute collapse in the Turkish Lira. Which is why about an hour ago, the CME decided to hike both TRY (to the USD and EUR) and Nat Gas margins, by 14 and 20% respectively. Will this normalize some of the vol seen around these products on Monday remains to be seen. Oh well, if not - the CME can just hike some more the same day, until it gets the desired outcome.

Having spent weeks talking amongst themselves about the chronic and dangerous rise of youth unemployment in Europe (as we warned here), the Center of planning and Economic Research in Greece has proposed a controversial measure. As GreekReporter reports, the measure includes unpaid work for the young and unemployed up to 24 years old, so that companies would have a strong motive to hire young employees. "Unpaid" work sounds a lot like slavery to us... but it gets better; the report also suggested "exporting young unemployed persons." No comment...

Curious why over the past few months JPM has quietly been accumulating a substantial amount of eligible physical gold (even as its registered gold inventory is the lowest it has ever been at just 87K ounces since December 13, 2013 when 147K ounces of gold was withdrawn - keep that date in mind for a few minutes)? This may have something to do with it: moments ago the daily Comex gold vault report confirmed what many expected, namely that the JPM accumulation was merely in advance anticipation of major withdrawals. How major? Well, on January 23, JPM saw 321,500 ounces of gold depart in one day. This was tied for the single biggest daily withdrawal in history!The last time JPM had an identically sized withdrawal? December 13.... 2012.

With Argentina's black-market peso (blue dolar rate) trading over 12, it would appear that the market is rapidly realizing the Central Bank's ammunition in its currency defense is likely to run out sooner rather than later. Perhaps it is time to get out that Soros' British Pound playbook?

Markets are deteriorating around the world but what could cause a real correction in the markets?

KIEV CLASHES RESUME BETWEEN PROTESTERS, POLICE: CHANNEL 5 TV
KIEV PROTESTERS ATTACKED AFTER POLICE INJURED ACTIVIST: TV 5
UKRAINE PROTESTERS THROW MOLOTOV COCKTAILS, ROCKS AT POLICE
UKRAINE POLICE RESPOND WITH RUBBER BULLETS, STUN GRENADES
UKRAINE POLICE BLAME PROTESTERS FOR BREAKING TRUCE: STATEMENT

The deer was back yesterday; but today "it's on..."

One of the greatest lies of the modern financial system (and that’s really saying something) is about inflation. The puppet masters who control the system have managed to convince people that deflation = bad, and inflation = necessary evil. Perhaps the even bigger lie is that of the actual inflation statistics. They tell us that there’s no inflation… or minimal inflation. But these figures are massively understated. And you don’t have to look hard for proof.