Archive - Jan 29, 2014 - Story

From Citi: From the viewpoint of domestic US economic conditions the Statement is completely anodyne. From the point of view of EM, the Fed has just said "hasta la vista, baby"

We have an old acquaintance named Sam who has a hell of a deal for you.

Sam is actually a pretty famous guy with a big reputation. Unfortunately he has been a bit down and out on his luck lately... but he’s trying to make a comeback. And Sam is prepared to float you a really great investment opportunity.

Here’s the deal he’s offering: you give Sam your hard-earned retirement savings. Sam will invest your funds, and pay you a rate of return.

Natural Gas futures prics are exploding higher... By now everyone is quite aware of the US climatic conditions so whatever squeeze just took place has nothing to do with fundamentals, and everything to do with someone being Amaranth'd. The only question is who, and who is their counterparty (especially if it is a public company).

Emerging Market FX is tumbling post FOMC; IG and HY credit market spreads are knocking wider; Treasury bond yields are plunging (after a knee-jerk higher); and the USD is rising. However, JPY is outpacing the USD move and with its break below 102 critical support, US equities are plumbing new pre-December-Taper lows... S&P futures are now down over 35 points from the morning "EM is fixed; where are all the sellers" highs...

It took Hilsenrath 2 minutes after the FOMC announcement to release the following 729 word analysis of what Bernanke just did. The punchline: "Overall, the Fed changed very little in its statement from the previous month. Neither a disappointing December jobs report nor recent turmoil in emerging markets was enough to diminish their positive outlook for the U.S. economy. The Fed reiterated their view that "risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more balanced," language they added to the statement for the first time in December.... The Fed repeated its message that they will likely keep rates at that low level "well past" the unemployment rate reaching 6.5%."

This should be good - President Obama sets out to explain how his new "MyRA" plan is for your own good...

Consensus that the Fed would extend its $10bn taper from December with a further $10 bn taper today (reducing the monthly flow to a 'mere' $65 billion per month - $30bn MBS, $35bn TSY) was spot on. We suspect the view, despite the clear interconnectedness of markets (and flows), of the FOMC is that "it's not our problem, mate" when it comes to EM turmoil.

• *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING TO $65 BLN MONTHLY PACE FROM $75 BLN
• *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET `MIXED,' `SHOWED FURTHER IMPROVEMENT'
• *FED REITERATES LOW RATES UNTIL JOBLESS RATE `WELL PAST' 6.5%

Of course, "communication" was heavy with forward guidance on lower for longer stressed. We'll see if the market buys the dichotomy of hawkish real tapering and dovish promises...remember "tapering is not tightening."

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1775, Gold $1267, 10Y 2.71%, 2Y 35.5bps, USDJPY 102, EM FX 85.67, WTI $97.35, IG 72bps, HY $106.35

The FOMC will probably reduce the pace of its asset purchase program by another $10 billion at its meeting today as it continues to move towards using forward guidance as the primary policy tool. However, as we noted in the case of the Bank of England's Mark Carney, New Fed vice-chair Stan Fischer's skepticism, and even Ben Bernanke, forward guidance is losing its luster (as it works in theory but not in practice). Bloomberg's Joseph Brusuelas warns that given the probable direction of the unemployment rate amid a structurally damaged labor market and disinflation, the Fed faces a dilemma in that the status quo is untenable and may soon be challenged by traders and investors eager to move back toward interest rate and policy normalization. Just as Carney lost his credibility, the Fed risks a lot by reversing its taper today.

While the world may be reeling in the aftermath of a horrible week for markets, which following today's largely expected $10 billion additional taper announcement, is only set to get worse (because, oops, the global economy turned out to not be in escape velocity mode as everyone simply confused the artificial level of the S&P 500 with economic output, as usual), one entity is delighted by the recent surge in volatility and market uncertainty: CNBC.

"On the one hand and in a stable state, tapering should lead to a gradual ‘normalization’ of yield levels – which mean that the 10 year should (assuming no crisis) ‘gradually’ trades toward nominal GDP minus some liquidity premium. However, ... should concerns build that global growth and inflationary expectations begin to drop too much (either due to Fed Taper or Geo-events), then Treasury values will recalibrate and yields could drop precipitously to 2.5%. If things got really bad, yields could fall quite a bit further."

First there was TWTRQ - the ticker for Tweeter Home Entertainement (which exploded 650% higher when the TWTR IPO was announced); then came NEST - the ticker for Nestor Inc. (which exploded 4900% higher when Google announced its acquisition of the thermostat maker Nest); and , drum roll please... today (just as we warned last night) the market's sheer idiocy is exposed once again in the form a 900% gain in the ticker symbol MYRA - the ticker for Myriad Emtertainments (following the President's unveiling of his MyRA savings plan last night)... we have no comment...

• March 1997: In a seemingly “innocuous” move the Fed “tinkers” by raising rates 25 basis points.
• April 1997: Japan raises its consumption tax as USDJPY has rallied from a post Kobe Earthquake low of 79.7 to 127.50 . USDJPY collapse to 111 by June
• June 1997-Jan 1998: Severe reaction in Asian currencies as “hot money flees”
• August-October 1998: Russia defaults, Long term capital folds and the Fed eases aggressively as the Equity market drops 22% (S&P)

UPDATE: Grimm issues statement "I was wrong"

Michael Grimm, New York Congressional Representative has just apologized to reporter Mike Scotto for the following mind-blowing outburst following the SOTU last night (when the reporter pressed him on his capmaign finance issues)... Let me be clear to you: You ever do that to me again, I’ll throw you off this f##king balcony... No, no, you’re not man enough, you’re not man enough. I’ll break you in half. Like a boy.”

With all eyes on Russia over the next month as the Sochi Winter Olympics ramps up, we are sure having the market's attention on a collapsing currency is not what Putin had in mind before he dropped $50 billion to make it snow. While the Ruble remains just above record lows against the USD, Bloomberg reports that it has dropped to a record low against the central bank's dollar-euro basket. Russia's finance minister proclaimed today (Erdogan style?) that Bank Rossii should not raise rates (which has been unchanged at 5.5% for the last 15 months). Russian CDS is widening (193bps at 4 month highs) but not cratering like other EM currencies but MICEX (stocks) have had their longest losing streak since April.

Moments ago, the US Treasury sold its first $15 billion in 2 Year Floating Rate Notes, providing investors with yet another product that "protects" against inflation, following the 1997 introduction of TIPS, which courtesy of their linkage to the official BLS hedonically and seasonally-adjusted definition of "inflation" have mostly protected investors from any real gains. Here are the results.