Archive - Oct 13, 2014 - Story

With no bond-market-police to corral the machines, it is not entirely surprising that - on the heels of AUDJPY - US equity futures have levitated this morning to provide a comfortably green open (as the world held its breath for a black monday - particularly inappropriate on Columbus Day). However, there's a long way to go in the day and liquidity is - in a word (or two) - non-existent (lowest in at least 18 months). That means intraday volatility will be extreme to say the least...

Perhaps the clearest indication that not even the Saudi's can keep pushing the price of oil much further here is that from a purely technical standpoint, oil is so hated, that the daily RSI has reached oversold only for the 3rd time in six years!

If central banks have learned anything since 2008, it's that waiting around for the panic to deepen is not a winning strategy. Put yourself in their shoes. Isn't this what you would do, given the dearth of alternatives and the very real risks of implosion? Anyone in their position with the tools at hand would not have any other real option other than to buy stocks in whatever quantity is needed to reverse the selling and blow the shorts out of the water. If $1 trillion doesn't do the job, make it $3 trillion, or $5 trillion. At this point, it doesn't really matter, does it?

Today US activity will be very light given the Columbus Day holiday. As DB summarizes, we have a relatively quiet day for data watchers today but the calendar will pick up tomorrow and beyond with a big focus on inflation numbers amongst other things. Indeed tomorrow will see the release of Germany’s ZEW survey alongside CPI prints from the UK, France and Spain. Wednesday’s data highlights will include the US retail sales for September, the Fed’s Beige Book, CPI readings from China and Germany, US PPI, and the NY Fed Empire State survey. Draghi will speak twice on Wednesday which could also be a source for headlines. On Thursday, we will get Industrial Production stats and the Philly Fed Survey from the US on top of the usual weekly jobless claims. European CPI will also be released on Wednesday. We have the first reading of October’s UofM Consumer Sentiment on Friday along with US building permits/housing starts. Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed Conference on Friday (entitled “Inequality of Economic Opportunity”) will also be closely followed.

While Russia's economy is hurting, desperate to overthrow the tentacles of the Petrodollar, and is urgently pivoting toward Beijing, the cherry on top came moments ago when, as if to assure all involved parties that there will be enough capital support on both sides, the PBOC released a surprising announcement that the central banks of China and Russia signed a 3-year, 150 billion yuan bilateral local-currency swap deal today, according to a statement posted on PBOC website. Deal can be expanded if both parties agree, statement says. Deal aims to make bilateral trade and direct investment more    convenient and promote economic development in 2 nations.

• Privately, Saudis tell oil market: get used to lower prices (Reuters)
• OPEC Members’ Rift Deepens Amid Falling Oil Prices (WSJ)
• Russia Spending $6 Billion Not Enough to Stop Ruble Rout on Oil (BBG)
• Deutsche clampdown on bad behaviour prompts exodus of traders (FT)
• Can't beat the spin: China trade data eases slowdown fears, more stimulus may still be needed (Reuters)
• China’s Exports Buoy Growth as IPhone Inflates Imports (BBG)
• Italy on Sale to Chinese Investors as Recession Bites (BBG)
• Hong Kong Protesters, Antiprotest Activists Clash (WSJ)
• Turkey Offers Military Bases to U.S.-Led Coalition (BBG) ... and the price is a small piece of post-Assad Syria
• Passenger With Flu-Like Symptoms Causes Ebola Scare At LAX (CBS)
• Boston patient deemed unlikely to have Ebola virus (Boston Globe)

With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained). The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the  AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).