Archive - Oct 15, 2014 - Story

It may come as a shocker to some, but hopefully not to anyone here, that September retail sales were arguably the worst of the year excluding the "abortion" that was the Polar Vortex. The simple reason: after the US consumer loaded up on debt in the spring and the summer, the payback hangover has finally hit with the payment due in the mail resulting in a collapse in revolving credit as reported previously, and as the September retail sales just confirmed.

As we explained in detail yesterday, between governments hopes to exit the bailout program early (in order to save their election) - which the market does not like the idea of - and fears over the reality of OMT, Greek markets are tumbling. Greek stocks are down over 9% - the biggest plunge in 6 years and bond yields are surging... it appears the market is demanding Draghi get back to work as the "whatever it takes" gains have been halved (Greek stocks -35% from March 2014 highs).

From 5 years highs to 6-month lows in one month  - Empire Fed manufacturing missed expectations by the most since June 2010 as New orders collapsed. The employment sub-index rose but workweek tumbled. Yet again, as we have described in greast detail, US economic data surges into the end of Q3 (government fiscal year-end) on spend-spend-spend year-end budget flushes, then collapses and disappoints.

Blood in the leveraged momo streets. Nikkei was crushed overenight as USDJPY could not hold 107. European stock indices are tumbling led by weakness in Spain, Portugal, and Italy. The peripheral bond markets are also getting crushed (spreads wider by 15-20bps). This has bled over into US equities with Nasdaq leading the way lower. Treasury yields are collapsing (10Y tests below 2.15%). The USD is modestly lower but oil is continuing to collapse testing the $80 handle for WTI.

Curious what the local spin is in the aftermath of today's second Ebola case? Here is the press conference update by Dallas health officials on just that.

Remember when banks said to ignore "one-time, non-recurring" legal fees because they are going away? Well, JPM yesterday showed they aren't. But it was Bank of America today which was slammed with the latest whopping $5.3 billion pretax litigation charge, which pushed its EPS once again into the red. But wait, there's great news: the loss of $0.01 is really a $0.42 non-GAAP adjusted profit if one "adds back" the $0.43 in litigation charges.

• M&A Bubble is bursting: AbbVie Says It Reconsiders Merger Pact With Shire (WSJ)
• Winner of bad headline timing award: Spinoffs Could Set Stage for Next Merger Wave (BBG) - and now wait for the spinoffs getting pulled
• Record mortgage settlement pushes Bank of America into third-quarter loss (Reuters)
• Korea joins the Japan currency war: Bank of Korea Cuts Base Rate (WSJ)
• Double Irish’s Slow Death Leaves Google Executives Calm (BBG)
• Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging (WSJ)
• Slow Rise in Prices Shows China’s Economy Is Still Struggling (WSJ)

For the fourth consecutive night, futures attempted to storm higher, and were halted in their tracks when the USDJPY failed to rebound from the recalibrated 107 tractor beam, following a statement by the BOJ's former chief economist and executive director (until March 2013) who said that now is the time for the Bank of Japan to begin tapering. Needless to say, there could be no worse news to bailout and liquidity-addicted equities as the last thing a global rigged market can sustain now that QE is about to end in two weeks, is the BOJ also reducing its liquidity injections in the fungible world. This promptly took away spring in the ES' overnight bounce. Not helping matters is the continuing selloff in oil, which as we reported first yesterday, has hit the most oversold levels ever, is not helping and we can only imagine the margin calls the likes of Andy Hall and other commodity funds (ahem Bridgewater -3% in September due to "commodities") are suffering. But the nail in the coffin of the latest attempt by algos to bounce back was the news which hit two hours ago that a second Ebola case has been confirmed in Texas, and just as fears that the worst is over, had started to dissipate.

And then there were three. As the Texas Department of State Health reported an hour ago, just three days after the shocking announcement that the late Thomas Eric Duncan had managed to infect one nurse in the first person-to-person transmission of Ebola on US ground, a second Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital worker has been infected with the deadly virus.