Archive - Oct 2014 - Story

Just yesterday evening, the exuberance was palpable (in stocks)... today, with WTI collapsing (under $85) to 18-month lows, Energy stocks are being monkey-hammered across the board (S&P Energy sector -4% from yesterday highs)...

To everyone expecting material upside surprise in terms of company earnings, guidance, balance sheet improvement, and/or capital spending, Goldman has one word: don't: "We expect a disappointing quarter for revenues. Weaker macro data and dollar strengthening increase the likelihood of sales misses. We also anticipate increased negative earnings guidance as companies quantify the FX headwind."

Who could have seen that coming?

Despite all the 'promises', all the 'whatever it takes', all the jawboning... actions and words appear unable to shift the world away from its disinflationary spiral that Central Bankers are so afraid of... US forward inflation expectations have cratered in recent weeks (to levels that in the past have triggered money-printing largesse) but it is European forward inflation expectations that have collapsed to record lows leaving Draghi caught between a deflationary rock and a Bundesbank-bating, Treaty-busting sovereign QE hard place that he knows deep-down-inside (given the cleasr evidence from the US and The Fed) simply does not work how it is supposed to (in the textbooks). As Deutsche Bank warned, "QE in Europe will be ineffective, but it will happen anyway - it is the only tool the ECB has to protect its mandate."

Curious how Bill Gross feels in his new digs at Janus Capital (aka old digs in Newport Beach)? Curious how much money he is managing now or how he will manage it? Curious why he has a band aid under his right eye? All should be revealed in the Janus Capital live webcast going on now.

Because humor like this obviously costs money. As always, from the one and only Dennis Gartman: "Down 35 points one day; up 35 points the next! The Bulls were taken out and shot Tuesday; the Bears were shot yesterday and all we know for certain is that the upward sloping trend still holds and that weakness is to be bought with the Fed still behind the market."

"...the world goes through frequent cycles of redefinition and these periods mean increased tensions and higher volatility. China and Russia are now forming a strong anti-US and anti-dollar alliance. This alliance is expanding in magnitude and impact as China increases its presence not only in Africa but also in Club Med via infrastructure investments." The new world order means less US dominance, a gradual weakening of reserve currency advantages and trade areas away from from Europe and the US. Add to this the much-needed fight against radical Islamism and we have a potential for geopolitical risk finally becoming part of risk assessment and return.

In his latest note Albert brings up in his latest note titled '?Basket trade?' suggests "Sell everything and run for your lives” (which has nothing to do with Edwards being a correct permabear in a world in which the house of cards is kept standing day after day only thanks to over $10 trillion and rising in central bank liquidity, and everythning to do with this). The point is whether increasing volatility across all major asset classes (notably FX and increasingly so in equities) will finally spill over into bonds, but in an inverted way - one where unlike stocks where vol surges when prices crash, would see bond volatility soar as a result of matched surge in bond prices, something which as we showed earlier today is becoming an increasing concern as bond yields around most places in the world have tumbled to record lows.

On Tuesday, the Dow fell 272 points. No big deal, of course - we rebounded the most in 3 years yesterday. But what if it continued? Just six years ago it fell 51%. It could easily do so again – back down to, say, 8,000. There would be nothing unusual about it. 50% corrections are normal. You know what would happen, don’t you? Ever since the "Black Monday" stock market crash in 1987 it has been standard procedure for the Fed to react quickly. But what if Yellen & Co. got out the party favors... set up the booze on the counter... laid out some dishes with pretzels and olives... and nobody came? What if the stock market stayed down for 30 years, as it has in Japan?

Despite the still confident exclamations from officials that the Ebola pandemic is 'contained', more and more nations are admitting to Ebola-symptomatic cases or bringing infected patients back from Africa for treatment. Australia has its first potential case of the deadly disease, as Bloomberg reports a nurse who returned from volunteering in Africa has developed Ebola-like symptoms. Despite claims that Nigeria's outbreak is over, a Turkish worker there has been hospitalized in Istanbul after signs of high fever and diarrhea. Health officials from Germany confirm a 3rd Ebola patient has arrived in the country - having contracted the disease in Liberia. And finally, just as in the sad case of Thomas Duncan in Dallas, The Guardian reports the infected Spanish nurse went untreated and unquarantined for a week despite reporting symptoms at least three times to hospital officials. It seems the world is ill-prepared for this...

Another day, another demand by "activist" (which as we have explained patiently before simply means someone who demands companies use moar debt to fund buybacks and/or dividends) Carl Icahn for Apple to buyback it shares. Uncle Carl's bottom line: AAPL stock would be worth a ridiculous $203 (or a $1.2 trillion market cap), if only the board were to "repurchase a lot more" stock "and sooner." Icahn's insight in a nutshell: "the more shares repurchased now, the more each remaining shareholder will benefit from that earnings growth." That's great, but we don't get why waste his precious repeating what he has said so many times before: instead Icahn should just pitch the Fed to monetize AAPL stock in QE 5. Value added Q.E. and well D.

Initial claims fell a modest 1000 this week to 287k, beating expectations (for the 4th week in a row) of 294k hovering near the lows of the cycle. The less noisy 4-week moving-average has dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2006 and continuing claims drops to its lowest since April 2006. This is as good as it gets... (especially in light of the tumble in hiring seen in JOLTS) - simply put, there can be no firings, because there is no hiring.

Yesterday's 'biggest surge in 3 years' ramp in stocks (following the release of September's FOMC meeting minutes) was, perhaps surprisingly, not unprecedented. When the Septemeber FOMC statement was released we saw the same kneejerk 'buy it all' reaction with a dramatic divergence between stocks and bond yields... so what happens next?

Here we go again. Exactly two months after the deadly shooting of Michael Brown by a local police officer in Ferguson, MO, it is time for part two. Overnight, in nearly the same spot as the Brown shooting, a white off-duty policeman shot and killed a black teenager in St Louis, officers said, triggering a night of protests just miles from the site of another police shooting of another black youth in the suburb of Ferguson. Reuters has the details: police said the 18-year-old was armed and fired three shots while he was being chased by the officer, and they had recovered a gun at the scene.  The youth was killed almost two months to the day since sometimes violent protests erupted in Ferguson after a white police officer shot dead unarmed black 18-year-old Michael Brown.  Said otherwise, cops say Myer was armed but witnesses say he was only holding a sandwich when he was tased, fell over & then was shot at 17 times of which "only" three hit.

• Five U.S. airports to screen for fever (Reuters)
• Danger, central banks trading with each other: Bipolar U.S. Stocks See Biggest Mood Swing in Three Years  (BBG)
• Draghi Policies Blunted in Berlin as German Protests Grow (BBG)
• White policeman kills black teen in St Louis, triggering fresh protests (Reuters)
• Au Revoir to France’s Welfare Model as Socialists Cut Spending (BBG)
• Here comes Roberto Cavalski (Reuters)
• There are 49 U.S. venture-capital-backed companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more—the highest number on record (WSJ)
• Pressure mounts on Hong Kong leader over payout amid crisis (Reuters)