Archive - Nov 14, 2014 - Story

Isn't it amazing what 2000 Dow points will do to a Federal Reserve member's perspective of 'the economy' and 'inflation expectations'. Bullard is back again today:

*BULLARD: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS REBOUNDED SINCE MID-OCTOBER
*BULLARD: FED TO RAISE RATES IN 2015, TIMING DETERMINED BY DATA

So basically calling off QE4 until the next 9.9% correction... Dow-Data-Dependent indeed

Greece - it would appear by this morning's GDP print - is now the engine of growth for Europe. Despite near-record unemployment, record suicides and poverty, and an increasing number of Greeks doing unpaid work (or in slavery), GDP rose at the fastest rate across the EU... However, it appears, judging by the protests across Athens today, the people did not get the message that the crisis is over... as police resort to tear gas and stun guns.

Retail Sales headlines, sliced and diced whichever you like, modestly beat expectations. Ex Autos & Gas, retail sales rose 0.6% against an expectation of a 0.4% rise as falling gas prices provided some support for sales. However, more troubling for the US economy is the 1.6% tumble in 'electronics and appliances stores' sales. This is the biggest MoM drop since Dec 2013. The big question is "are iPhones part of the 'electronics and appliances stores' category?"

Ah Europe, never change.

• "The hate us for our..." Americans’ Cellphones Targeted in Secret U.S. Spy Program (WSJ)
• Ukraine and Russia take center stage as leaders gather for G20 (Reuters)
• Moscow and Kiev trade accusations; U.S. warns Russia against escalation (Reuters)
• Heartland Central Banker Calls Asset Bubbles Top Concern (BBG)
• U.S. Said to Give Banks December Deadline in FX Probe (BBG)
• Series of Failures Enabled White House Breach, Report Finds (WSJ)
• Yen plumbs seven-year trough on likely Japan sales tax delay (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Chase Bankers Said to Lead Moscow Departure (BBG)

PIMCO PAID GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS FOR 2013, DOCUMENT SHOWS
PIMCO PAID FORMER CEO EL-ERIAN ABOUT $230 MLN BONUS IN 2013

The key event overnight was the release of European Q3 GDP data, which saw Germany averting a recession by the narrowest of margins when following a -0.2% drop in Q2 economic growth, Germany grew by the smallest amount possible in Q3, or 0.1%, in line with expectations, thus averting two consecutive quarters of decline, the technical definition of a recession. The French economy likewise posted a modest increase in Q3, although one wonders how aggressively the data had to be fudged for a country whose PMIs all indicate a -1% or greater contraction. Italy however was less creative with its use of "hookers and blow", and continued its recession with a 3rd negative print, contracting at -0.1% as expected, while Portugal also missed third quarter growth estimates.