Archive - Nov 19, 2014 - Story

The word "volatile" comes to mind when reflecting on today's cross-asset class action. US equities dumped into and beyond the US open, decoupling entirely from JPY carry, only to reverse perfectly at the European close and recover all the way back to USDJPY right as the FOMC minutes hit. A kneejerk sent stocks higher but that quickly decoupled also and stocks fell. Small Caps underperformed and are back in the negative year-to-date. Treasury yields were volatile, ramping higher into the US open, rallying post, then whipsawing on FOMC minutes to close 3-4bps higher on the day.The USD was flat on the day despite the surge in USDJPY back above 118. Commodities were a mess with a big dump on Swiss Gold polls, rip higher on Russian buying rumors and dropped again on FOMC (oil and copper followed suit). HY Credit was "bidless" and continues to decouple from stocks (along with VIX).

Having noted rather pointedly that "there's a subsidy in the marketplace that's worked out definitely to those that are holding equities," Santelli warns, when The Fed removes it, "it creates a problem for equities." However, when he is asked about the disconnect between the bond market (rates) and what The Fed is telling us, Santelli rightly explodes, lambasting the 'Hatzius' of the world, "if The Fed hasn't made up its mind" about when and how rates will rise, "how can markets 'price it in'?"  ... and the rant ignites from there...

In a nation in which 1 out of every 3 homes is unaffordable, you’d think the primary goal of public policy wouldn’t be to ensure real estate becomes even more out of reach for the average citizen. It’s bad enough that American financial oligarchs have leveraged free money polices of the Federal Reserve to purchase tens of billions of dollars in real estate only to rent it back to people who were kicked out of their homes during the 2008 crisis, but the government is now going out of its way to allow Chinese (and other foreign criminals) to launder money via U.S. property.

Having kneejerked higher, stocks read the most important section of the FOMC Minutes - that they will not be rescued next time - and decided it was time to take some off. This is clearly not acceptable and so USDJPY was leveraged ever higher and just broke 118.00. The problem is... US and Japanese stocks are entirely decoupled from this surge in the momentum igniter...

Instead of reading between the lines of the 28 page FOMC minutes, we have The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath to explain to us what we should believe. His message is not dovish. Despite tumult in financial markets, weak economic conditions abroad, and risks that low inflation could drift lower, Hilsenrath notes that the Fed forged ahead with a decision to end the central bank’s bond-buying program because the domestic economy and labor market appeared to be on course for further improvement. Furthermore, officials added a new twist: a debate about whether they should add new information in their official policy statement on how quickly rates will rise once increases commence.

"... members considered the advantages and disadvantages of adding language to the statement to acknowledge recent developments in financial markets. On the one hand, including a reference would show that the Committee was monitoring financial developments while also providing an opportunity to note that financial conditions remained highly supportive of growth. On the other hand, including a reference risked the possibility of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the misimpression that monetary policy was likely to respond to increases in volatility."

The Fed minutes can be boiled down to 3 two-word factors: "inflation rate", "economic policy", and "market conditions" - all of which overshadow words like "growth" and "jobs" and "employment"

Having done nothing but rally since the FOMC statement on 10/29 that ended QE, the minutes provide little additional info aside from to note that some participants wanted to drop "considerable time":

• *MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW LIMITED IMPACT FROM GLOBAL SLOWDOWN
• *FED OFFICIALS SAW NEED TO WATCH FOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DROP
• *FOMC OPTED NOT TO MENTION FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL AFTER DEBATE

If they don't mention, it never happened

As previously reported, the anticipated Polar Vortex 2.0 has struck, pushing temperatures in all 50 states to below freezing, while heavy snow prompted a state of emergency in western New York and contributed to the deaths of four people. According to Reuters, it was the coldest November morning across the country since 1976, according to Weather Bell Analytics, a meteorologist consulting firm. It remains to be seen how many GDP percentage points were wiped out as a result, unless of course, this time it will be different from last winter. But it was the situation in upstate New York, especially around Bufallo and parts of Erie County, where things got most dire and where 60 inches (1.5 m) of snow accumulated, with more falling, said Steven Welch of the National Weather Service near Buffalo. It gets worse: forecasters are calling for more snow on Thursday, as much as three feet more, for a total of up to 100 inches over four days - a year's worth for the region!

The BTFDippier of the fast money is already rotating into a long-Europe mode: their entire thesis is that sooner or later the whales will have no choice but to follow the momentum chasers right back into Europe, because where else are they going to go: in the "safety" of the S&P's 19x GAAP P/E?  In theory this would be a great strategy, if only in a world in which nobody actually does any fundamental homework and the only thing that matters is frontrunning the next great sucker. In practice, it is fatally wrong. As the following observation from hedge fund Lyxor shows, while CTA and momentum strats have indeed bailed on Europe in recent months, the so-called smart money, the "global macro" funds never left.

Ahead of President Obama's address to the nation tomorrow to dictate his executive orders on immigration, potentially allowing millions of undocumented immigrants to stay legally in the US, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds nearly half of Americans disapprove of his plan. Only a dismal 38% support the President taking this executive action... which makes us wonder if there has ever been so much revulsion at the policies of a standing President. It's good to be king.

It appears the FX and Precious Metals markets have as much faith in the pre-Swiss Gold Referendum polls as the Scots did before their referendum. The clearly leaked results sparked considerable weakness in gold and silver (and EURCHF surge), but once the data was released, markets began to creep back - perhaps questioning the plausibility of such a big swing in such a short amount of time. This surge was also helped by some unusually frank comments on Russian gold buying from the Russian Central Bank.  Gold, Silver, and EURCHF have all recovered the moves with the latter pressing towads cycle lows...

 Trader's Magazine reports that "as part of KCG's continued push into the institutional trading side of the business"... which is a euphemism for please trade with us: we won't blow up again, we promise... "the well-regarded and historically focused market-maker [ZH: if you keep repeating that it magically comes true, just ask world-renowned trader Dennis Gartman] has built its first brand new algorithmic trading tool - Catch."  What does the algo known as Catch do? Well, supposedly it offsets the impact of all other algos who have crushed market liquidity.

This past month, a real-life guild of thieves was formed. With 51 governments pledging their support to each other for the protection of their ignoble craft of theft. And another 30 pledging to join by 2018.

While what normally happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas; President Obama's decision to dictate his Immigration Executive Order from sin city will likely have repurcussions across the entire nation. As NY Times reports, Obama is preparing to use his executive authority to provide work permits for up to five million people who are in the US illegally, and to shield them from deportation. But these new arrivals will not receive one key benefit: government subsidies for health care available under Obamacare. The immigrants would also be unlikely to receive benefits like food stamps, Medicaid coverage or other need-based federal programs offered to citizens and to some legal residents. "The costs of extending these programs to millions of low-wage illegal immigrants would be enormous," said Senator Jeff Sessions "this is yet another danger posed to Americans by the president’s unconstitutional action."