Archive - Nov 2014 - Story

Following last month's collapse, hopes were high for the Keynesian data mean-reversion to bounce Empire Fed Manufacturing data solidly higher... it didn't. A small bounce to 10.16 (against expectations of 12.2) is the 2nd miss in a row and below January's mid-polar-cortex levels. Under the covers, it was even uglier as average workweek and prices received plunged to their lowest levels in 2014 (as prices paid only inched lower - sparking fears over margins). The number of employees also fell (despite a rise in new orders?) but the headline print was saved from worse by a surge in 'hope' yet again as the business outlook jumped by 6 points to 47.61 - its highest since Jan 2012!!

• Scuttled deals worth $580 billion put hedge funds on back foot (Reuters)
• Mounting Pressure on OPEC Spurs More Wagers on Oil Rally (BBG)
• It's not just US real estate: Chinese Students at U.S. Universities Jump 75% in Three Years (BBG)
• Frankfurt Open for Yuan Clearing as Liquidity Rises (BBG)
• Obama defends healthcare law after adviser criticism (Reuters)
• Michael Hasenstab Bets Big in Controversial Places (WSJ)
• Facebook seeks foothold in your office (FT)
• Russia Seen as Greatest Threat in Poll as Oil Erodes Putin Power (BBG)
• Falling Oil Prices Test OPEC Unity (WSJ)

While it was already leaked in the past week that oil service giant Halliburton would seek to purchase Baker Hughes, or, if the smaller oilservice company did not accept the proposed terms, make a hostile run at its board of directors, it was unclear how the Houston company would respond. As the Houston Chronicle summarized, BHI had "to make a tough choice: surrender control on a rival's terms or face months of sunken oil prices and cost pressures alone....Halliburton's demands come as crude prices have fallen dramatically and as the U.S. oil industry looks to an uncertain future. Much is unclear: how much oil producers will rein in equipment and service spending, whether oil prices will sink or swim, and how much Baker Hughes would be worth in six months after what would likely be a bruising battle for control of its board." Moments ago we got the answer and Baker Hughes shareholders decided they have had enough of the volatile oil price and are happy to cash out at this point, in a $34.6 billion deal that values BHI shares at $78.62/share.

Perhaps the biggest shock following last night's completely expected and very predictable (previewed here over a month ago) Japanese slide into triple- (actually make that quadruple) dip recession, is that it took the BTFTripleDip recession algos as long as they did to recover most of the overnight futures losses. Because after surging to 107 on a confused short squeeze kneejerk reaction, the USDJPY subsequently tumbled 150 pips to 105.50 as rationality briefly emerged, and the market wondered for a few brief hours if rewaring the destruction of one's economy is actually a prudent thing. Then, however, when European traders started walking into work, the now default USDJPY levitation on no volume came right back, and with that the correlation algo buying of E-mini futures, no doubt helped by the Bank of Japan itself taking advantage of the CME's ES liquidity rebate program. Because without confidence as expressed by the lowest and only common denominator left - global equities - there is nothing else.

http://youtu.be/H8BBuUKlSZA?list=UU8YbsyWUFBLD2POOGCNW_IA

AMARI: ABENOMICS HASN'T FAILED (so this was the expected outcome?)
SUGA: INVENTORIES, WEATHER, CONSUMER MINDSET CAUSED GDP FALL (nothing to do with record-high misery-index induced by crushing the currency of an energy-import-dependent nation?)

Japanese GDP fell for the 2nd quarter in a row making it official - as we warned a month ago - that Japan has entered a triple-dip recession. Againstr hope-strewn expectations that the rebound from a sales-tax-driven slump would create a magical 2.2% (annualized) expansion, Japanese GDP slumped 1.6% in Q3 - missing by the most since March 2011. So no tax increase... and thus fiscal responsibility goes out the window. Abe dissolves government and bails on another failure? The initial kneejerk reaction sent USDJPY surging back over 117.00 (and NKY followed) but that has quickly reversed and NKY futures are 600 off their highs (and S&P futures are back to last Monday's lows).

The term “anarcho-capitalism” has, we might say, rather an arresting quality. But while the term itself may jolt the newcomer, the ideas it embodies are compelling and attractive: (1) each human being, to use John Locke’s formulation, “has a property in his own person”; (2) there ought to be a single moral code binding all people, whether they are employed by the State or not; and (3) society can run itself without central direction.

According to the International Centre for Prison Studies, nearly a third of all female prisoners worldwide are incarcerated in the United States of America. There are 201,200 women in US prisons, representing 8.8% of the total American prison population. As Forbes' Niall McCarthy reports, China comes a very distant second to the US with 84,600 female prisoners in total or 5.1% of the overall Chinese prison population. Russia is in third position – 59,000 of its prisoners are women and this comes to 7.8% of the total. Either American women are the worst-behaved in the world, or the politically-expedient "prisons-first" culture has gone too far.

"... the gold community paid great attention to the decision of the German Bundesbank to “bring German gold home”. At the beginning of 2013, the Bundesbank announced it would repatriate 300 tonnes of gold stored in the US by 2020. It is well behind schedule, citing logistical difficulties. Yet diplomatic difficulties are more likely to be the chief cause of the delay, especially seeing as the Bundesbank has proven its capacity to organise large-scale gold transports. In the early 2000s, the Bundesbank incrementally repatriated 930 tonnes of German gold held by the Bank of England."

We’ve now created a situation unfortunately in the market where between high frequency trading and algorithms and interference by the planners they can make things happen that looks like everything is OK. And it’s the "OK" part where I think we can really relate to gold not being allowed to go up. Because that's the canary in the coal mine. If gold was above $2,000 we’d all be wondering: What the hell is going on here? And so they haven’t allowed it to happen. However, there is a tremendous imbalance currently seen between global supply and demand for precious metals, and a true price recovery has got to come from the physical market first - or China will continue to buy 60 tons a week until a prodigious upward price correction is forced.

While Americans are preached that "free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity," it appears that not everyone is buying it. Whether it is the failure of prosperity to trickle down (and the inequality that has been created) or just the herd-like need to be told what to do (and never take risks), Pew Research finds a stunning 25% of Americans do not believe people are better off in a free market system - implicitly preferring centrally-planned lives. Ironically, belief in the free market tends to be highest in developing countries while in Japan and Spain, a majority prefer to be managed than free.

Washington’s ability to rig markets has allowed Washington to keep its economic house of cards standing. The extent of financial corruption involving collusion between the mega-banks and the financial authorities is unfathomable. The Western financial system is a house of cards resting on corruption. Can it stand forever or are there so many rotted joints that some simultaneous collection of failures overwhelms the manipulation and brings on a massive crash? Time will tell.

What is the main culprit for the contraction in China's all important credit formation? In two words: shadow banking. As Bank of America summarizes "shadow banking is being tamed" because "the changing structure of TSF suggests that Beijing’s efforts in controlling some types of shadow banking have made some achievements. Two major drivers for the steep decline of TSF from Sept to Oct were the falling of non-discounted bills (down RMB241bn) and falling trust loans (down RMB22bn). By contrast, new corporate bonds were at RMB242bn, a sharp rise from RMB151bn in Sept." In other words, China's shadow banking not only ground to a halt, it actually continued moving in reverse!

While the central banks of the world have yet to directly unleash the helicopter drop of free money to the end-consumer, preferring instead to seek financial asset inflation (and all its unintended consequences), it appears there is another way to get 'free money' direct to the average Joe... "ATM Jackpotting." According to Wired, using a special button sequence and some insider knowledge, it is possible to reconfigure ATMs to believe they are dispensing one dollar bills, instead of the twenties actually loaded into the cash trays. Though industry sources claim this to be rare, they note that "independent operators and financial institutions are very tight lipped about this sort of thing."