Archive - Nov 2014 - Story

Having bounced modestly yesterday, EURCHF is testing new lows post its peg (at 1.2020 vs 1.20 peg) as the reality of the referendum on the "Save Our Swiss Gold" initiative starts to get priced in. The Swiss National Bank has decided to unleash some propaganda, as WSJ reports, Thomas Jordan, president of the Swiss National Bank, warned adoption of the so-called 'Save Our Swiss Gold' initiative would be a "fatal error of judgment." With the vote looming on Nov 30th, Jordan explains that maintaining stable prices would be harder to achieve if the call for gold repatriation and increased reserves is approved. The M.A.D. rhetoric has begun as not just stability but jobs are at stake, according to Jordan.

"The behaviour patterns in precious metals were somewhat similar to the behaviour patterns in foreign exchange," FINMA director Mark Branson said in a conference call with journalists. He said that as UBS has precious metals and foreign exchange desks under combined leadership, it was not surprising to find similar behaviour. "But we have also seen a clear attempt to manipulate fixes in the precious metal market."

As the West (US and its pressured allies) attempt to 'isolate' Russia more and more, the inevitable cornering further and further incentivizes Putin to develop alternatives to the status quo. In the past, western sanctioners have sabre-rattled cutting off Russian from SWIFT - the international inter-bank payment system - as a next step in squeezing the oligarchs into submission (though 'independent' SWIFT distanced itself from those calls). Now however, as RT reports, Russia intends to have its own international inter-bank system up and running by May 2015. The Central of Russia says it needs to speed up preparations for its version of SWIFT in case of possible ”challenges” from the West. If successful, this would pose a further challenge to the USD's reign as sanction blowback reverberates once again.

"FINMA has also instructed UBS to limit bonuses for traders of foreign exchange and precious metals to 200 percent of their base salary for two years."

The horror, the horror.

• Banks to Pay $3.3 Billion in FX-Manipulation Probe (BBG)
• Symbolic being the key word: U.S., China sign symbolic emissions plan, play down rivalry (Reuters)
• Europe (so really Russian sanctions) is the new "snow in the winter" - Carney Sees Europe Stagnation Impact as Growth Outlook Cut (BBG)
• Eurozone Industrial Output Points to Weak Third Quarter Growth (WSJ)
• Not everyone around Abe is insane: Kuroda Ally Flags Warning on Delaying Sales-Tax Increase (BBG)
• Hong Kong to scrap daily yuan conversion limit to boost stock investment (Reuters)
• Barclays Falls After FX Settlement Delay Reduces Discount (BBG)
• Some unhappy Yahoo investors asking AOL for rescue (Reuters)

As expected, the stench in market rigging, be it Libor, FX, gold or anything else, goes to the very top...

With the USDJPY repeatedly hitting 116.00 as a result of the same pair of headlines hitting either Reuters, the Nikkei or Sankei every 6 or so hours for the past 3 days, namely that Japan will delay its sales tax hike by almost two years, and that Abe is preparing early elections, perhaps the algos realized they were pricing in the same event about 4 times in one day, and unable to break the 7-year-high resistance level, slid dropping nearly 100 pips to just over 115 at least check, which may well be today's "tractor" level, which in turn has also dragged down both European stocks and US futures. But the thing that made the vacuum tubes really spark is that at a press conference yesterday in Beijing, Abe was quoted as saying that he "has never made any reference to the dissolution of parliament", this came after the chief cabinet secretary Suga saying that the decision on whether or not to go to the polls would be Abe’s only.

The WTF charts just got WTF-ier...

The U.S. booty business is getting a big bump, as AP reports companies are cashing in on growing demand from women seeking the more curvaceous figures of their favorite stars. While Millennials may spend most of their day sitting on their Minaj-esque "big fat butts" playing Kardashian, the business of boosting butts is bursting. From padded panties and gym classes that promise plumper posteriors to the "Brazilian butt lift," in which fat is sucked from a patient's stomach, love handles or back and put into their buttocks and hips, French sociologist Jean-Claude Kaufmann says "there's a trend to show off the buttocks in place of breasts due to the rise of Beyonce," Jennifer Lopez, and more recently Meghan Trainor. The bottom line - butt lifts and implants are the fastest growing plastic surgery, helping GDP at a cost of $10-13k each.

while almost all oligarchs are extremely wealthy (or have access to extreme wealth), not all people with extreme wealth are oligarchs. The term oligarch is reserved for those with extreme wealth who also want to control the political process, policy levers and most other aspects of the lives of the citizenry in a top-down tyrannical and undemocratic manner. They think they know best about pretty much everything, and believe unelected technocrats who share their worldview should be empowered so that they can unilaterally make all of society’s important decisions. The unwashed masses (plebs) in their minds are unnecessary distractions who must to be told what to do. Useless eaters who need to be brainwashed into worshipping the oligarch mindset, or turned into apathetic automatons incapable or unwilling to engage in critical thought. Either outcome is equally acceptable and equally encouraged. These oligarchs and the centralized institutions they control pose the greatest threat to humanity at this time.

Obama: "So how did you like that whole "costs" part? Was it too much? I think they bought it."
Vladimir: "You have been fantastic. Truly flexible, and so persuasive: I almost believed it myself. Great job comrade."

Our political-financial system has gone from the dysfunctional to the failed to the surreal. Speculation, once left to individuals and investors, is now federally sponsored, subsidized and institutionalized. When this sham finally buckles and the next shoe falls and rates do eventually rise, the stock market will tank, liquidity will die, and the broader economy will plunge into a worse Depression than before. We are not there yet because of these coordinated moves and the political force behind them. But we are on a precarious path to that inevitability.

Did the election last week really mean that much? I took to my Twitter account on Tuesday to point out that the change in control of the Senate from Democrat to Republican actually means very little, despite efforts by politicians and the mainstream media to convince us otherwise. Yes, power shifted, I wrote. But the philosophy on Capitol Hill changed very little. The warfare/welfare state is still alive and well in Washington.

Overall, CPI’s are used to index payments on over $10 trillion in liabilities. Any underestimation of  CPI benefits the federal government at the expense of the taxpayer and amounts to a backdoor default on its financial obligations. Please understand this could be deliberate or the result of dubious econometric methods. Using a bad model is like using a random number generator as a compass.  To get an idea of the sums of money involved, for every 1% of CPI underestimation the federal government saves $8.4 billion on social security payments alone.  The lack of transparency regarding quality adjustments (and their perceived complexity) provides a perfect smoke-screen for covert debt management through CPI under-reporting.

There are things in this world which simply look plain stupid, and then there are those that at closer examination prove to be way beyond stupid...