Archive - Nov 2014 - Story

Isn't it ironic that the demographic in America that has seen the largest job growth during the 'recovery' turned out in droves to vote (against the incumbents) while the generation that remain mired in student debt, living at home with their mom-and-dad in record amounts, and having lost hope of the American Dream were apparently uninterested in 'change'. Perhaps, just perhaps, the elder generation still believes there is a difference between the two parties... or perhaps they are the ones who are most pissed as the promises of sipping margaritas on a golden beach in retirement is crushed into the reality of working to your grave at Home Depot...

Nothing to see here, move along...

Isn't it odd that 'they threw the bums out' last night and yet, economic confidence is high, stocks are high, and now, according to ADP, private payrolls are great too? Something doesn't add up. ADP printed 230k against expectations of 220k, modestly up from a revised 225k in September. Small and Medium-sized businesses added jobs while the largest firms (over 1000 people) slashed jobs (which is great for the stock, right?).

• From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
• How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
• Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
• Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
• GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
• GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
• McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
• Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
• Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
• Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)

While hardly a surprise, the spin for the latest round of overnight BOJ USDJPY-buying exuberance, which sent the pair higher by another 100 pips to a fresh 7 year high of 114.500 and just over 500 pips from the Albert Edwards "line in the sand" 120 and pushed US equity futures higher with it, has been the Republican sweep in the midterm elections which not only solidified GOP control of the House but also gave Republicans outright control of the Senate.

For the 5th day in a row, "someone" has decided that 0030ET would be an appropriate time (assuming the 'seller' is an investor who prefers best execution rather than the standard non-economically-rational share-repurchaser in America) to be dumping large amounts of precious metals positions via the futures market. Tonight, with over 13,000 contracts being flushed through Gold - amounting to over $1.5 billion notional, gold prices tumbled $20 to $1151 (its lowest level since April 2010). Silver is well through $16 and back at Feb 2010 lows. The USDollar is also surging.

Here is why interest rates will be perpetually low for the rest of our lives, why the inflation calculation has been changed to a dynamic formula (meaning they now change the inputs each quarter) and why those of us yet to retire are screwed.

"Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other" - Oscar Ameringer

House: 435 Seats, 43 Undecided, Results: Republicans 235 - 157 Democrats (Dem -8, Rep +10)

Senate: 100 Seats, 4 Undecided, Results: Republicans 52 - 45 Democrats/Independents (Dem -7, Rep +7) REID CONGRATULATES MCCONNELL ON REPUBLICAN SENATE WIN

And here are 5 things to watch for the day after the election...

"Capitalism is a system according to which capital is owned by private citizens, who in turn determine its price and flow by interacting with one another. Capitalism implies that private citizens get to keep most of the fruits of their labor or the profitability of their capital. Capitalism is neither a “state of nature” nor a primitive scrum. It can work (i.e., create value for owners and for society while being acceptable to the citizenry, including those without capital) only with appropriate rules of fairness and honesty, and workable standards of disclosure. To these factors must be added the ability for people, in a meritocratic way, to have a chance to participate in capitalism. The proper combination leads society to buy into the concept that the individual freedom to own property leads to the most efficient allocation of resources, which in turn results in the highest economic growth and prosperity. Capitalism is never perfect, but the closer society adheres to its general principles, the better it is for the population at large."

The US government loves to “promote democracy” overseas, often at the barrel of a gun. Strangely enough, however, it often “deplores” actual elections being held in such places. Take Ukraine, for example. An election held last week by a group that forcibly seized power from a legitimately-elected government was hailed by the US administration as a great democratic achievement. So here is the real message from the US government: elections overseas are only legitimate if we have pre-approved the parties allowed to stand and if we have pre-approved the outcome. The election must result in exactly the kind of “pro-West” government that we desire or we will begin destabilization and regime change, if completely ignoring the results does not do the trick.

Nine short months ago, the clever people running the show in Europe suggested a number of measures including "unpaid work for the young and unemployed up to 24 years old, so that companies would have a strong motive to hire young employees". 'Unpaid' work sounded a lot like slavery to us then but it seems the arrogance is contagious as Canada - that bastion of freedom - suggests that the employment situation is so bad that young people should consider working for free. As The Globe & Mail reports, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said 'Adult children stuck in their parents’ basements because they can’t find adequate employment should take unpaid work to bolster résumés as they wait for the recovery to take hold'.

"The power of psychology is overwhelming, and investor sentiment indicates that the Fed can be trusted, that asset prices are being driven higher by QE and ZIRP, and that we should not worry too much about the unintended consequences, because the Fed will be able to follow a path to normalization and a soft landing. America, in any event, is the safe haven and always will be."

"An understanding of history, context, the incentives of policymakers and the fundamentals of the economy is very useful, even essential, for survival, in order to develop a sense of humility and an appreciation for how broad the range of outcomes can be."

There is an old Wall Street chestnut that goes, “It’s not a stock market; it’s a market of stocks.”  Fair enough, but we’ll take a different approach today to complete this aphorism: “It is a market of stories.”  Yes, it is stories that vie for our attention, define our realities, and spur us to action.  Recent academic work on the subject reveals that the right narrative – ideally one with a strong human element – physically changes how we process information and make us more likely to empathize with and ultimately believe the stories we hear.  Too fluffy a concept for you?  The research we cite was partially funded by the U.S. Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and when they have an interest in something, rest assured it has a very serious purpose.  As for applications in the world of investing, recognizing powerful stories earlier than the pack is pretty much the job description for a nalysts and portfolio managers alike.  Just be aware that it is all too easy to fall for one as well.