Archive - Dec 18, 2014 - Story

Shifting consumption from gasoline sales to retail sales does not create economic growth. It is just a "shift" in where the same dollars are spent. However, there has been much "hoopla" over the recent retail sales report for November that saw retail sales jump for the month by 0.7%. While on the surface this appears to be a strong retail sales report, a quick look below the surface quickly destroys that claim.

We are far too speechless to even comment on the latest Goldman "leading indicator" swirlogram, which we can only assume was made public after another unprecedented "North Korean hack" at US "recovery" propaganda central, so here is Goldman's own take:

As we explained previously, quietly hidden within the humanitarian-sounding "The Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014", under the premise of enabling further sanctions on Russia, is the provision of "lethal aid" to Ukraine. Today, President Obama signed it into law...

*OBAMA SIGNED RUSSIAN SANCTIONS BILL TODAY, but SAYS HE DOESN'T PLAN TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS UNDER NEW LAW

Because he knows full well that is not the important part. The "lethal-aid" aspect is a direct provocation to Russia.. and he knows exactly how Putin will respond.

There has been much debate whether the crude price implosion has been due to excess supply or not enough demand. Here, courtesy of the oil minister at the world's largest crude supplier, is the answer:

• NAIMI SAYS DEMAND FOR OIL SLOWED MORE THAN EXPECTED: SPA
  
• NAIMI SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWDOWN LARGELY BEHIND MKT PROBLEM

Which, of course, to anyone with even the most rudiemntary logic and charting skills, should not come as any surprise.

Through the overly-complex verbiage riddled with a copious number of contingencies, a simple message was actually able to surface.  The net result is modestly hawkish and one consistent with our "Sooner but Slower" rate cycle perspective. Markets are being driven more by fear of missing the upside, and fear of under-performing peers and benchmarks, than by any other factor.  This Pavlovian response has worked well in recent years and encouraged by the Fed.  However, this pattern is in the 9th inning.  Moreover, such herd-like behavior will run into great difficult due to dreadful market liquidity that is the result of regulatory over-reach; indications that were evident in markets over the past few weeks.

Crude is over 7% off its intraday highs.. But "Ignore it" - Yellen said it's great news (and transitory)... The last time Crude was here, the S&P 500 was 65 points lower... [WTI closed at its lows $54.05 in Jan '15 futures]

"As humans struggled to understand what nuance, if any, existed between the two catch phrases, the automated computer programs that do so much of the trading these days immediately reacted and so stocks and Treasuries shot higher in tandem. Did the machines start a buying binge after a simple, successful search for “considerable time?” It’s possible, according to Paul Tetlock, an associate professor at Columbia Business School, who has researched how stocks react to news stories."

"Most Shorted" stocks are up 4.75% from yesterday's lows - the biggest squeeze since October 2011. This squeeze has entirely decoupled US equities from VIX... from credit... and from crude oil. But when did any of that matter...

Absent YouTube clips of young North Korean hackers actually attacking Sony, the Obama administration appears to have made up its unequivocal mind that they are responsible... (even as they say the Sony hack origin is still under investigation) and now...

*SONY HACK BEING TREATED AS NATIONAL SECURITY MATTER: EARNEST
*EARNEST SAYS SONY HACKING MERITS 'APPROPRIATE RESPONSE'

The White House spokesman added that daily meetings are being held on the attack. We wonder just how soon it will be before the Nobel Peace Prize winner decides it's time to take 'action'.

As employers shift to more proactive efforts to help their workforces "put the Twinkie down," we thought a look at the most (and least) obese jobs in America would provide additional data on potential career paths for today's disenfranchised youth. What The Wall Street Journal found in their data is perhaps surprising with 'sedentary' scientists and economists are the least obese, and 'active' firefighters and cops are the most obese...

"I just get annoyed with the ridiculous foolishness of people.  We’ve got to start using our own brains.  The Fed stopped using any benchmarks because while the benchmarks were improving, the economy wasn’t and isn’t.  And so they were being railroaded by the transparency that benchmarks provide.  And now it is just a black box of various indicators that will be analyzed in real time to form justifiable actions, far too complex for you and I but trust them that there is a definite method and it’s very quantifiable at that, they just can’t tell us what it is because it would just confuse everyone. Does anyone really not get it?? What is happening is the grandest con job in the history of the world."

For the second time in 2 days, a Chinese car maker's stock has been utterly devastated overnight - on absolutely no news. Shares in BYD - the Chinese electric car maker part-owned by Warren Buffett - crashed 47% in a bout of total panic selling (before recovering modestly), just a day after Geely - another car maker - crashed 22% on an earnings warning. The reason - perhaps unsurprising - given by some is worries over Mainland China IPOs "caused a liquidity squeeze," as the recent rally in mainland shares is led by leverage financing leading to major margin-calls on modest drops. Is it any wonder the PBOC is trying to tamp down the speculation.

The drop in oil prices is certain to cause some incremental unemployment in the U.S. energy industry; the question is simply how much and what that means for the American economy as a whole.

500 Dow points (and 80 S&P points) later... and suddenly the exuberant short squeeze ends (as AUDJPY runs out of steam). WTI Crude has crashed back to $55.50 after testing $59. The Energy ETF XLE has given up all its gains (who could have seen that coming?). And HY credit markets have slumped from the US open with stocks now catching down...