Archive - Dec 3, 2014 - Story

Venezuela CDS is surging once again this morning, even as oil prices stabilize on the day, to its highest since January 2009 as traders increase hedges or speculation that the nation will be forced to default on its bonds. Current prices imply around an 85% chance of default (likely not helped by President Maduro's insistence that all is well and that he will try to destrout the black market for dollars that implies a massive devaluation is afoot for the Bolivar)

The nation's top CEOs trimmed their forecasts for sales and capital spending, according to the Business Roundtable's fourth quarter survey, predicting the economy will grow a modest 2.4% next year (well below the forecasts of many economists who expect the nation's GDP to rise 3% or more in 2015), with only 36% expecting to increase capital spending. Given the roundtable's urging government to extend corporate tax breaks that are set to expire and pass broader corporate tax changes that would encourage companies to invest in the U.S., we look forward to President Obama explaining to the CEOs why they've never had it better...

• SWEDISH PM LOEFVEN SAYS SWEDEN IN SERIOUS SITUATION
• SWEDISH PM LOEFVEN SAYS WON'T ACCEPT NEW POLITICAL SITUATION
• SWEDISH PRIME MINISTER LOEFVEN CALLS FOR NEW ELECTION IN 2015
• SWEDISH PM SAYS NEW ELECTION TO BE HELD ON MARCH 22
• SWEDISH GOVT: WILL NEVER ALLOW SWEDEN DEMS TO DICTATE RULES
• SWEDISH PM LOEFVEN WON'T SEEK ANY FURTHER TALKS WITH OPPOSITION

Confused? You are not alone...

ISM's Nieves: "services in strong uplift in recent months"

Markit's Williamson: "moderating growth in the service sector is a sign of domestic demand weakening... services collectively growing at a much reduced rate"

Trade accordingly...

On the heels of 5 months of weakness in Services PMI, and 2 months of weakness in ISM Services, it only makes sense that ISM's Services print would massively beat expectations at 59.3 (against 57.5). All ISM subindices rose - apart from employment (which dropped to 4 months lows)! Just 15 minutes after one survey indicates a drastic slowdown in domestic demand for services, another one says it has almost never been better...

For the 5th month in a row since the record-breaking June highs that proved the recovery narrative was working, US Services PMI dropped. At 56.2 (missing expectations of 56.5), this is the lowest in 7 months. As Markit notes, this is a problem, since "whereas the manufacturing slowdown was largely linked to weaker global demand and a renewed fall in export orders, moderating growth in the service sector is a sign of domestic demand weakening." This points to a significant slowdown in GDP growth to a mere 2.5% from a hopeful 3.9% in Q3.

Since the top in oil in June, crude has dropped around 37%... and so has the Russian Ruble. Monday saw the Russian Central Bank (rumored) to intervene to protect the 54 Ruble to the USDollar level. Yesterday saw weakness resume as oil prices slipped and today it appears 55 is the new line in the sand as the USDRUB was smashed 2 handles lower earlier today (only to begin selling off once again since). Russian 10Y bond yields are leaking higher however, +20bps to break the 11% line in the sand.

"Almost 40% of appraisers surveyed from Sept. 15 through Nov. 7 reported experiencing pressure to inflate values,...If you thought what was happening before was an embarrassment, wait until the second time around." Is there any price in this economy that isn’t completely rigged?

But all the clever talking heads (the same ones that to-a-man saw rising rates this year) keep telling us that wage inflation is coming any minute, it has to right, and will create escape velocity and nirvana on American soil. Sorry, nope. Unit labor costs dropped 1.0% in Q3 against a 0.3% preliminary print and expectations of a mere 0.2% drop (the 4th missing quarter of th elast 5 and lowest growth since Q4 2013. What is more problematic is real hourly compensation was revised drastically lower - quite a plunge.

Following 2 months of improving growth and beats after a mid-year slump, ADP Employment in November dropped to 208k (from a revised 233k in Oct) missing expectations of 222k by the most since August. November has historically seen a significant bump higher in employment but 2014 saw a drop (the first since 2008) with the lowest November print since 2010.

First it was Shoppertrak, then it was the National Retail Federation, then it was IBM, and now, with its own set of internal data, here is Bank of America slamming the door shut on US retail spending as a source of Q4 growth, and proving once and for all that the extended Thanksgiving-weekend, and the start to US holiday spending season, was the biggest dud since Lehman.

Several days ago we heard rumors, unsubstantiated, of an accident at Ukraine's Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Europe's largest and the 5th biggest in the world. Considering Ukraine's history with nuclear accidents, and resultant panics, we decided it would be prudent to wait for an official confirmation before proceeding with a report. We got the confirmation about an hour ago, when Ukraine's new/old Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, or "Yats" as his puppetmaster Victoria Nuland likes to call him, said "on Wednesday an accident had occurred at the Zaporizhye nuclear power plant (NPP) in south-east Ukraine and called on the energy minister to hold a news conference."

• Fall of the Bond King: How Gross Lost Empire as Pimco Cracked (BBG)
• Hong Kong 'Occupy' leaders surrender as pro-democracy protests appear to wither (Reuters)
• Ashton Carter, Ex-Pentagon No. 2, Emerges as Obama Favorite for Defense Secretary (WSJ)
• Oil, the Ruble and Putin Are All Headed for 63. A Russian Joke -- for the Moment (BBG)
• New U.S. oil and gas well November permits tumble nearly 40 percent (Reuters)
• Swedish government on brink of collapse (AJ)
• China says Britain has no moral responsibility for Hong Kong (Reuters)
• Indian Labs Deleted Test Results for U.S. Drugs, Documents Show (BBG)

Those wondering why European stocks are higher but off earlier highs, the answer is simple: the latest Service ISM was bad but it wasn't a complete disaster. And while RanSquawk notes that "the particularly disappointing slew of Eurozone Service PMI’s from France and Spain capped any potential upside seen across the European indices" stocks are clearly green on hopes Europe's ongoing economic devastation accelerates enough for the ECB to finally start buying Stoxx 600 and various other penny stocks. This is what happened, in Goldman's words: the November Euro area final composite PMI came in at 51.1, 0.3pt below the flash (and Consensus) estimate. Relative to October, the composite PMI fell by 0.9pt. The weaker final composite PMI was driven by flash/final downward revisions to the German manufacturing PMI and the French services PMI. Today’s data also showed some improvement in the Italian services PMI, and a deterioration in its Spanish counterpart.