Archive - Dec 2014 - Story

“There’s two things that I find incredible about this. First, that anyone would advertise in a resume that they know about a flaw in the system — signaling that they’re ready and willing to exploit that flaw. And, second, that somebody would hire the person sending that signal.”

When at least 3 readers receive, at exactly the same time the following Bank of America email, then two things become abundantly clear...

"We all are in a Ponzi world right now. Hoping to be bailed out by the next person. The problem is that demographics alone have to tell us, that there are fewer people entering the scheme then leaving. More people get out than in. Which means, by definition, that the scheme is at an end. The Minsky moment is the crash. Like all crashes it is easier to explain it afterwards than to time it before. But I think it is obvious that the endgame is near."

"Today central banks give money to institutions, which are not solvent, against doubtful collateral for zero interest. This is not capitalism."

The Fed can do only do two concrete things to influence these income and credit sources of spending - both of which are unsustainable, dangerous and an assault on free market capitalism’s capacity to generate growth and wealth. It can induce households to consume a higher fraction of current income by radically suppressing interest rates on liquid savings. And it can inject reserves into the financial system to induce higher levels of credit creation. But the passage of time soon catches up with both of these parlor tricks.

"...by the time euphoria sets in, most observers have a vested interested in avoiding stating the obvious - that delusion has replaced reality. Journalists and media companies that are supposed to objective are themselves benefiting from the bubble... ditto economic policy-makers..."

Once upon a time it was the Sicilian, or Russian, or Japanese, or Chinese mob that were some of the biggest sources of funding for corrupt government officials (incidentally, most of them). After all, the government is smart enough to realize that it is more lucrative to "cooperate" with the world's biggest criminal syndicates than to wipe them out and cut off a major source of funding (of course, when it comes to populist optics and reelection, there is always an easy low-level perp walk every week or so to keep the peasants in place... and Diebold).

After last night's marvelous Bloomberg profile of Bill Gross' last days at PIMCO, we were confident that no written material today could surpass Mary Child's fascinating narrative of the fallen bond king. And then we read Cannell Capital's activist letter to one James J. Cramer, of CNBC and TheStreet director infamy, which is hands down the blockbuster reading material du jour.

With uncertainty lingering and patience wearing thin after five-plus years of still lackluster wage growth, consumers are increasing saving for the future, hedging against a continuation of “more of the same.” Thus, for many, extra savings at the pump as a result of lower gas prices are simply being stored away to help supplement spending needs in the future, ramping up savings, not spending.

"The stock market just keeps zooming up. A low equity allocation must be hurting you now... For all purposes, this is a hideously expensive market. I don’t care if it’s a bubble or not. It’s too expensive, and I don’t need to own it. That is the problem. This is the first central bank sponsored near-bubble. There is just nowhere to hide... but... to think that central banks will always be there to bail out equity investors is incredibly dangerous."

Presented with nothing but admiration for the arrogance of manipulators...

An utter VIXnado (below 12.25 in the last 30 mins) sparked a late-day buying panic in stocks ahead of tomorrow's all-hopeful ECB meeting (because nothing makes more sense than lifting all protection ahead of a potentially massive market event) although the last few minutes closed weak. On the day high beta Trannies (despite higher oil) and Small Caps surged once again (as the market ignored PMI and ADP and loved ISM) as Monday's 'excessive' selling of "most shorted" names has been face-ripped back the last 2 days. Treasury yields at the long-end fell back today after 2 days higher (with 30Y back below 3.0%) but <7Y were 0-2bps higher. The dollar roseonce again as EUR dropped to 1.2301 (-17 handles from Draghi's first hint). Depsite USD strength, gold (over $1210) and oil (over $67) pushed higher but silver and copper slipped. In summary, buy back all your hedges, buy stocks, buy bonds, buy dollars, buy gold, buy oil, bye bye sanity.

With the average hedge fund down 1% year-to-date, it is perhaps no surprise that investors are pushing back against the fee structure... Pension funds and other investors called for changes Tuesday in the way hedge funds charge fees. The proposed changes were outlined in a statement by the Alignment of Interests Association (AOI), a hedge fund investor group to which many pension funds belong. The group said that hedge funds should only charge performance fees when returns beat benchmarks, and that fee structures should better link fees to long-term performance.