Archive - Jan 2014 - Story

Below is a chart which flags the highest external risk among the 10 most prominent EMs broken down by liquidity (reserves over near-term maturities) on the X-axis and capital flows (current account as % of GDP) on the Y-axis. It should come as no surprise, that Turkey is worst, followed by South Africa, India and Indonesia. China, Korea and Russia have current account surpluses and strong coverage of short-term debt by reserves. Brazil also has high reserve coverage of short-term debt. Mexico and Poland have small current account deficits and healthy reserve coverage, in addition to their IMF Flexible Credit Lines. As for Argentina, forgetabout it.

Indicators of US balance-sheet repair hardly signal the onset of the more vigorous cyclical revival that many believe is at hand. Optimists see it differently. Encouraged by sharp reductions in households’ debt-service costs and a surprisingly steep fall in unemployment, they argue that the long nightmare has finally ended. That may be wishful thinking. Notwithstanding the Fed’s claims that its unconventional policies have been the elixir of economic renewal in the US, the healing process still has years to go. This should not be surprising.  Far too many US households made enormous bets on the property bubble, believing that their paper gains were permanent substitutes for stagnant labor income... and appear to be doing the same again.

"In general, this morning’s confidence data bode well for current quarter consumption and likely reflect the ongoing massive improvement in household balance sheets that we have been highlighting for some time now as a key catalyst for growth in the coming quarters." - Joe LaVorgna

As the investing world waits with baited breath for the outcome of the Turkish Central Bank's emergency meeting (released at 2200GMT) to see if they hike rates 300, 400, or 500bps and finally manage to persuade Erdogan that raising rates are essential; the Turkish stock market investors are voting (and selling). The Istanbul 100 index has plunged to its lowest level since July 2012 (and the Lira strength from spike lows has stabilized - just two days shy of record lows).

The half life impact of Icahn's tweets is now just under 5 minutes.

Because, like, nobody orders computers or electronics when, you know, it's cold out, in December the orders of computers and electronic products dropped to a level not seen since 1993. And yes, they did have computers back in 1993.

While the talking heads are gloating over green arrows in stock-market-land this morning, the turmoiling is far from over. This morning's dismal Durable Goods data sent asset classes scrambling as gold dropped, oil popped, Bonds ripped and dipped, and stocks dipped and ripped... for now... AAPL remains -6.9% but VIX continues to see hedges unwound (-1.2 vols at 16.2%) We presume this is some hope that Taper will be tapered.

Confidence is soaring (or sliding) depending on what survey you choose to believe. The UMich confidence's collapse (the biggest miss in 8 years) has been matched by more 'baffle 'em with bullshit' as the Conference Board beats expectations by the most in 5 months and pushes back towards 2013 highs (near the highest in over 5 years). Both the Present situation and Expectations rose notably - despite 1.4 million people losing their benefits, a lackluster holiday season for retailers, and stagnant incomes - but the Present Situation index rose to the highest since April 2008.

It would appear the fears of a global bank run are spreading. From HSBC's limiting large cash withdrawals (for your own good) to Lloyds ATMs going down, Bloomberg reports that 'My Bank' - one of Russia's top 200 lenders by assets - has introduced a complete ban on cash withdrawals until next week. While the Ruble has been losing ground rapidly recently, we suspect few have been expecting bank runs in Russia. Russia sovereign CDS had recently weakned to 4-month wides at 192bps.

Mykola Azurov, the prime minister of Ukraine, (and his cabinet) has resigned. The move comes as the government faced losing a no confidence vote and being stripped off their power. It seems the opposition (pro-Europe) are gaining momentum once again as the Ukraine also repealed the controversial anti-protest laws that created more tension last week. The Russians are not amused and have warned that they may reconsider the $15 billion bailout offer if the current government is removed. The Ukrainian Hryvnia is continuing its collapse on this news and has dropped back towards record lows (though bonds are rallying).

And the hits just keep on coming: after the atrocious Durable Goods number, it was the turn of the Case Shiller housing data, which reported what many already knew - in November the 20 City Composite index (the Non-seasonally adjusted version which as the report's authors acknowledge is the accurate one) posted its first monthly decline, dropping modestly from 165.9 to 165.8, or down 0.06%, since November of 2012. And while on an annual basis, the increase was still a solid 13.71%, up from October's 13.61%, these backward looking numbers will quite soon turn sharply negative once the sharp bounce in 2013 - driven not by a housing recovery but by institutional all cash buyers and foreign money launderers seeking to park their cash in the US - get anniversaried.

We can waste many words to explain today's absolutely atrocious and recovery killing durable goods report (wait for it... wait for it... it's the weather's fault), or we can just show this once chart explaining all that has happened so far in the "recovery."

It seems the "dollar is a reserve currency for ever and ever" propaganda has not reached Africa, also known as Southern China as explained here two years ago, where moments ago the Central Bank of Nigeria issued the following surprise announcement:

• NIGERIA CENTRAL BANK TO RAISE SHARE OF YUAN TO 7% FROM 2%
• NIGERIA CENTRAL BANK TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES INTO YUAN

But why would anyone buy Yuan when there are so many ever-more diluted dollars available?

The Federal Reserve is the primary engine of income/wealth inequality in the U.S. Eliminate "free money for cronies," bailouts of the "too big to fail" banks that own the Fed, manipulation of markets, the purchase of impaired private assets at high prices, and all the other tools of financialization the Fed wields to enforce its grip on the nation's throat--in other words, abolish the Fed--and the neofeudal structure that feeds inequality will vanish along with the feudal lords that enforced it. We don't need to "fix" things as much as remove the obstacles that are blocking the way forward. The Federal Reserve is the primary obstacle to reducing income/wealth inequality.

Early this morning, at JPM's 33 story high London Headquarters located at 25 Bank Street in Canary Wharf, a 39 year-old man jumped to his death after falling onto a 9th floor roof. The police, who were called to the scene at 8:02 this morning, said they are not treating the death as suspicious and no arrests have been made, suggesting the death was indeed a suicide.  London Ambulance Service and London Air Ambulance attended but they could not save the man.