Archive - Jan 2014 - Story

Some better than expected economic news out of Europe, Greek 10 Year yields dropping to 7.65% or the lowest since May 2010, and futures are... red? Alas, such is life in a world in which the S&P500, aka the E-mini, is simply a derivative of the Yen funding currency pairs, where the USDJPY touched on 105 after a straight line diagonal move only to sell off in recent trading. Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen mixed, with peripheral stock indices outperforming, buoyed by the prospect of Portugal echoing yesterday’s Irish NTMA return to capital markets with its 10y bond syndication. As such, despite the cautious sentiment, financials led the move higher, with Italian banks gaining for 4th session as IT/GE 10y spread narrowed to its tightest level since early July 2011. Of note, FTSE-100 index underperformed its peers since the get-go, with retailers and tobacco names under pressure. In spite of opening higher by over 3%, Sainsbury's shares have since reversed and are seen lower by almost 2% after co. CFO said that he expects FY LFL sales to be just below 1% and expects Q4 to be similar to Q3. Elsewhere, tobacco names came under selling pressure following reports that China is planning a ban on smoking in public by year's end.

Recently, the FBI made a significant change to its self-proclaimed primary focus in its fact sheet from “law enforcement” to “national security.” This change merely confirms what I and countless others have claimed to be true for quite some time. That the entire regulatory, security and intelligence apparatus of these United States has been redirected away from protecting the Constitution and the rule of law, toward a narrow focus on protecting the economic and social positions of the oligarch class at all costs under the guise of a “war on terror.”

While Abe begs (and cajoles) business leaders to raise wages (whether it makes economic sense or not), his plunging approval rating could have something to do with the ongoing squeeze the average gadget-freak Joe-san consumer is experiencing. Bloomberg reports, for the first time in 21 years, mobile phone prices are rising. The typical deflationary path of technological improvement is being overwhelmed by JPY weakness. "Inflation is spilling across a range of products," warns a Dai-Ichi economist, adding that the weakening yen is driving up prices as "Japan is importing more final goods as production shifts overseas."

Some simple bond math: rising rates lead to lower prices. Holders of rate products, once they anticipate that future prices will fall, sell today to minimize losses. So the question: when the selling of the world's debt begins (and accelerates), especially with everyone urged by central bankers to shun bonds and go for "undervalued" stocks, who buys? We ask because, as the chart below shows, there is quite a bit to sell.

Even before Abe was elected prime minister on December 26, 2012, Chinese media were warning that he would be overly nationalistic. Upon Abe’s election, major Chinese news outlets expressed dismay over the future of China-Japan relations. It seems that the visit to Yasukuni Shrine was the last straw for Chinese leaders in their dealings with Abe. Hua said that Abe’s decision to visit the Shrine “severely damages the political foundations of China-Japan relations.” Simply put, “There’s no domestic political room for China to ease its attitude toward Japan on the issues of the Diaoyu Islands and the Yasukuni Shrine.” When one or both reaps a domestic advantage from stoking the fire, forget about easing tensions —avoiding actual conflict is the best case scenario. Under the circumstances, the only hope for a reset of China-Japan ties is if Abe is ousted as prime minister.

A record 21 million applications were run through the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) last year - an 8% increase over 2012 and, as The Washington Times reports, the 11th straight year that the number has risen. Background checks serve as a proxy for the number of gun sales, which soared in the months immediately after Sandy Hook (but notably fell in the last 2 months of 2013 as the Newtown and 'fear of Obama' effect wore off). "2013 was the best year for firearm sales (commercial, domestic) in history — period!" notes the president of the independent firearm owners association, adding that "Ammunition will still be very strong in 2014 as it hasn’t caught up nationally with the demand." This could become a problem since, in what many believe was an attempt to 'crowd out' private buyers, the Homeland Security Department bought 1.6 billion rounds alone.

"Eventually (un-manipulated) asset prices always return to their fundamental value, which is why bubbles always pop. The FOMC has backed itself into a corner. Current changes in policy are being designed around efforts to manage the unwind process seamlessly. Central bank (and government official’s) micro-management appears based on a belief that they can exert an all-encompassing central control over markets and peoples’ lives. Those in power have come to believe that policies have a precise effect that can be defined and managed. This is highly unlikely."

With manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs disappointing, and the nation's banking system still stuck in the thralls of a liquidity crisis (each time the PBOC removes the punchbowl), Michael Pettis' warnings are becoming increasingly likely (even though consensus remains that China will save the world somehow - as it transitions 'smoothly' to a consumer-based economy). Ironically, he notes, GDP growth rates of 7% or more, on the other hand, will suggest that credit is still rising too quickly and that China has otherwise been unable to implement the reforms, in which case China is likely to reach debt capacity constraints more quickly. Growth of 7% for the next few years, in other words, is almost prima facie evidence that China is not adjusting.

Remember when the Fed got its Series 7 and Series 63, and was solely engaged in the business of advising on stock valuation? Neiter do we. But that doesn't prevent it from now openly opining on what it thinks is the fair value of stocks:

• FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS U.S. STOCKS AREN'T OVERVALUED

So, the implication is one should buy stock then? And if the market craters tomorrow, the Fed will surely make everyone who listened to this non-voting moron who has made a complete mockery of the Fed's inflation and full employment mandates and replaced them with the "fair stock value" mandate, whole at the expense of all the other taxpayers, right? Finally, since the market is not overvalued here, what is the Fed's price target on the S&P 500, oh unregistered financial advisors-cum-Princeton academics of the Marriner Eccles building.

One of the biggest mistakes we can make, Saxo Bank's CEO warns, is to assume that rationality will prevail, that just through superior economic performance, freedom will capture enough peoples' hearts in a democracy to win the day. In the last of his three-part series (part 1 and part 2), Lars Seier Christensen focuses on the broader relevance of Ayn Rand in society today, noting that she remains among the few that recognised with crystal clarity, that we will not win the battle through just proving that freedom and capitalism works. This, he warns, creates a major problem for those of us that like to argue rationally, rather than emotionally.

JPMorgan: "[t]here are various elements in the story that could make us nervous," including the fund managers "apparent fear of Madoff, where no one dares to ask any serious questions as long as the performance is good.... personnel at one feeder fund seem[ed] very defensive and almost scared of Madoff... They seem unwilling to ask him any difficult questions and seem to be considering his 'interests' before those of the investors. It's almost a cult he seems to have fostered."

With Russian, Chinese, and Argentinian (with a record low in the blue dollar today) money washing ashore (in USD or Bitcoin) under the Status of Liberty, the 'prices' of upscale apartments in New York City have simply exploded. We thought some context for this apparent 'price' vs 'value' discrepancy was useful... presenting 6 castles that cost less than an apartment in NYC (and given the number of bedrooms, not to mention moats, dungeons, vineyards, ramparts and drawbridges - dramatically less in terms of per-capita spend).

Hayek knew that avoiding the credit-created boom prevents the associated malinvestments and over-consumption while boom-bust cycles will be avoided through prevention or significant reductions in credit creation. Keynes, however, thought differently. Current Fed policy is a policy of illusion, or better yet, of delusion.

With Washington fighting over whether to stop emergency unemployment benefits in the US, the Saudi Arabian government has re-written their economic textbooks with some wonderful new logic. In an effort to encourage its citizens to seek jobs in private companies (as opposed to the majority in government jobs - which the IMF sees as unsustainable), the Saudis are introducing compulsory unemployment insurance for all citizens with jobs. As Reuters reports, "It may not be the most cost effective solution in the near term but if it helps normalise the labour market it is a price worth paying." With unemployment at 12%, and only 30-40% labor force participation, the costs could be significant.

We have been reading quite a few articles, as of late, regarding the resurgence of corporate fixed investment in 2014 that will provide a much needed boost to the economy.  However, is that really the case? Given the data, it is far more likely that we are closer to the next recession versus the middle of an economic cycle.  The fact that productivity growth is approaching zero is likely due to the reality that businesses have already extracted the majority of the benefits from their ongoing cost cutting and productivity measures. A resurgence of capital investment would certainly help stabilize the economy and potentially lift it to a level that would stimulate stronger employment and consumer demand.  However, when it comes to managing investment risk, "hope" is not an investment strategy that works long term.