Archive - Jan 2014 - Story

After beating expectations for 6 months in a row, the whisper expectations for December's Manufacturing ISM was a small miss of the 56.8 consensus print. Instead, the US inventory build up in the quarter boosted the ISM for one more month with the headline print of 57.0 beating expectations modestly, if recording the first decline in seven months, down from November's 57.3. There was little surprise in the internals, which saw New Orders (64.2 vs 63.6), Employment (56.9 vs 56.5) and Prices Paid (53.5 vs 52.5) all rise modestly. The New Orders Index increased in December by 0.6 percentage point to 64.2 percent, which is its highest reading since April 2010. The Employment reading was the highest since June 2011. Like the Chicago PMI previously, inventories dipped into contraction territory, if not as violently as in Chicago, down from 50.5 to 47.0. Judging by the boost to the US economy from the government shutdown, perhaps Congress should close more often: like permanently?

The late-day exuberance from New Year's Eve has been dismissed as JPY strength has dragged stocks to one-week lows this morning (catching down to VIX's warnings from last week). Gold ($1225) and Silver ($20) are notably higher this morning as WTI crude is significantly lower (back under $97). Treasuries are modestly bid from earlier levels with 10Y holding 3.00%.

Despite the supremacy of Fed hubris and punter confidence in the Fed's Frankenstein Economy, the likelihood of some tail risk emerging out of nowhere is rising. Indeed, the very confidence in central planners, i.e. that the Fed is now the ultimate power in the Universe, is a prerequisite for collapse.

"We are deeply sorry for this whole affair," said Wal-Mart's China president after the world's largest retailer recalled donkey meat sold at some outlets in China after tests showed the product contained the DNA of other animals - including fox. "It is a deep lesson (for us) that we need to continue to increase investment in supplier management," repeat-offender Wal-Mart added as Reuters reports the tainted "five-spice" donkey meat may mean "wealthy shoppers will start to lose the trust [in Wal-Mart's brand] they had before." Donkey meat is a popular snack in some areas of China, but as one bemused customer noted, oddly, "Isn't fox meat more expensive than donkey meat anyway?"

The now ubiquitous prior upward revision helped headlines crow of 'another' decline in initial jobless claims this week. Initial claims beat expectation of 344k with a 339k print, whis is now a drop from a previously reported 338k that is now revised up to 341k... all makes sense, right? It seems claims have stabilized somewhat after the few weeks of glitches and shutdown SNAFUs and the downtrend appears to have stalled as these levels of claims are at the same level as 5 months ago. Bear in mind this is the last print for 2013 (not first print of 2014 data) and with 1,391,297 people on Emergency benefits due to start 'tapering' this week, we can only imagine the 'glitches' that will occur going forward.

A few days ago Goldman pointed out an interesting observation: "if you were an index investor and weren’t long Jan 1st, you underperformed this year." To be sure, index investors have been well aware of this self-fulfilling prophecy. As it turns out, one can extend this pattern not only to 2013 but virtually every year in the Fed's centrally-planned "abnormal", as can be seen on the chart below: adding up the performance of just the first trading day of the year in the S&P shows a total outperformance of 10% across the past five years.

• Threatening snowstorm may be early test for N.Y. Mayor de Blasio (Reuters), U.S. Northeast Threatened With Blizzard, Travel Delays (BBG)
• Scarred U.S. consumers a hard sell for traditional retail (Reuters)
• Edward Snowden, Whistle-Blower (NYT)
• A Few Brave Investors Scored Huge, Market-Beating Wins (WSJ)
• Fiat gets full control of Chrysler for $4.35 billion (Reuters)
• Billions Vanish in Kazakh Banking Scandal (WSJ)
• SAC’s Cohen Focus of Trial as Martoma Rebuffs U.S. (BBG)
• World's first state-licensed marijuana retailers open doors in Colorado (Reuters)
• Hyundai, Kia face fading growth as currency tides buoy Japan rivals (Reuters)
• Bond investors braced for new year shock (FT)
• Putin vows total destruction of 'terrorists' after bombings (AFP)

The first trading session of previous years has always been a whopper for those betting on central planning and capital flows. In fact, if one adds up the S&P performance on the first trading day of each year going back to 2009 (i.e., 1/2/13: + 2.54%, 1/3/12: + 1.55%, 1/3/11: + 1.13%, 1/4/10: + 1.60%, and 1/2/09: + 3.16%), one gets a whopping 10% return just on that one trading session. Which is why the fact that futures are glowing read, if only for the moment, may be disturbing for index investors and all those others who put all their faith, not to mention money, in St. Janet. Today's red open is hardly being helped by the 10 Year which continues to drift lower with the yield now at 3.04%, even as the Spanish 10 Year yield just got a 3 handle as well. At this rate the two streams should cross some time in the next two months. Just what a higher yield in the US vs Spain would imply for fair and efficient markets, we leave up to readers to decide.

In a little under four minutes, Marc Faber explains to Fox Business' Dagen McDowell all that is wrong with the Central Planners 'current plan'. From a re-bubbled housing 'recovery' pricing real buyers out of the market ("homes do not offer a great opportunity today") to forced-renters paying increasing amounts of their stagnant wages, and the small percentage of ordinary Americans who actually benefit from a rising stock market, reducing their disposable income to which Faber sarcastically rants "well done, Mr. Bernanke." His advice, be diversified, don't BTFATH in stocks, and physical gold is always a good insurance.

Given that young people in Japan have lost interest in sex, with 45% of Japanese women 16-24 "not interested in or despise sexual contact," it is perhaps not entirely surprising that, as Japan Times reports, Japan's population fell by a record 244,000 in 2013. This further raises concerns over an ever-dwindling workforce that supports an ever-growing number of pensioners, with the proportion of people aged over 65 reaching nearly 40% by 2060.

We have gotten to a point when even the most tenured economists have finally admitted the truth, and in the process none other than JPMorgan itself has just issued a chart titled "The era of central bank-driven equity rallies."

Throughout 2013, the distortions created by intervention in once-free markets have left many scratching their heads. The interventions have worked - almost faultlessly - but for them to do so has required the suspension of one belief system (economic reality) and the adoption of another - namely, that everything will be OK because ... well, just because. Can the fantasy persist into 2014? Sadly, Grant Williams states "Yes. It most certainly can." Will it continue into 2014? Most likely. Will this new belief system become the new economic reality? Not a chance.

When newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised new deficit spending and pedal-to-the-metal monetary inflation, the progressive Keynesians were excited. And indeed, debasing the yen seemed to work for a few months, with analysts saying US policymakers should follow Japan’s lead. Yet now Japan’s recovery seems to be collapsing, leading its Cabinet to approve yet another “stimulus” package. Does anyone else have a sense of deja vu?

Either the Volcker Rule is making Wall Street's menu of investment choices so unbearably limited, or traditional assets are so overpriced Wall Street won't even touch them with other people's money, but when it comes to allocating capital the smartest conmen in the room are coming up with some truly unorthodox products. Such as investing in ex-convicts in the form of 2000 newly released prisoners.

Is the U.S. consumer tapped out?  If so, how in the world will the U.S. economy possibly improve in 2014?  Most Americans know that the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending.  If average Americans are not out there spending money, the economy tends not to do very well.  Unfortunately, retail sales during the holiday season appear to be quite disappointing and the middle class continues to deeply struggle.  And for a whole bunch of reasons things are likely going to be even tougher in 2014.  Families are going to have less money in their pockets to spend thanks to much higher health insurance premiums under Obamacare, a wide variety of tax increases, higher interest rates on debt, and cuts in government welfare programs.  The short-lived bubble of false prosperity that we have been enjoying for the last couple of years is rapidly coming to an end, and 2014 certainly promises to be a very "interesting year".