Archive - Feb 20, 2014 - Story

We highlighted the CRB/BLS Spot Foodstuffs Index last week. It’s continuing to rise but still remains lower year-on-year at this point.  The question is whether this is the start of a broadly-based period of food price inflation?

Last week, we highlighted the fact that the latest Press Freedom Index showcased a 13 point plunge in America’s press freedom to an embarrassing #46 position in the global ranking. If the authoritarians in the Obama Administration have their way, this country is set to fall much further in next year’s index. Incredibly, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is set to roll out something called the Critical Information Needs study, which will embed government “researchers” into media organizations around the nation to make sure they are doing their job properly. No this isn’t “conspiracy theory.” It is so real, and represents such a threat to the First Amendment, that a current FCC commissioner, Ajit Pai, recently wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal, warning Americans of this scheme.

This next paragraph contains what Grant Williams believes is the fundamental principle of investing in gold and silver, which so few people genuinely understand — despite the multitudes of commentators expending countless thousands of words.

"So these anti-gold idiots are just that, idiots, or else they have the memory of a goldfish, because currencies come and currencies go, as sure as night follows day. It is the natural order of things. And as you can see, it's not about trading gold to get rich or getting long gold or buying one by two call spreads or getting fancy, it literally is about protecting yourself in the end. It's not like Williams got rich. He just stayed rich. Everyone else got poor."

Central banks are accumulating gold because it cannot go BANG! like fiat currencies do. Individuals should be doing the same — not being sidetracked by the distractions. It's not about price - if you own gold, it will do all the heavy lifting for you when the time comes.

Take a wild guess...

Even as the primary housing market was slowly circling the drain, the one silver lining was that the US rental market, largely dominated by several Wall Street investment firms, most notably Blackstone, was doing relatively well. It was doing so well that equity sponsors such as Blue Mountain couldn't wait to offload their prized REIT property to the public, culminating with last August's IPO of American Homes 4 Rent, the second-largest US homes-for-rent operator after Blackstone. And since the stock price of all these corporations was performing admirably or at all time highs, supported by the record fungible liquidity sloshing among the world's interconnected markets, nobody was very concerned.

It is time to get concerned.

Unlike so many television shows, House of Cards shows how politicians use their power to help themselves and their friends - not the people who elected them. The fictional character at the center of the series, Frank Underwood, shows us the pitfalls of bureaucratic democracy. As professor Steve Horwitz explains in this brief clip, the series exposes the truth of public choice theory, rent seeking behavior, psychopathic tendencies, Machiavellian inclinations, corruption, and scandal. House of Cards is not that far from reality theses days and the following 3 lessons should be heeded by every voter.

With G10 Macro data the most negative in 8 months, it is perhaps unsurprising that Goldman's Advanced Global Leading Indicator dropped further - to its lowest in at least a year. Firmly in "slowdown" phase, Goldman remains adamant that "weather-related" inputs will mean this will all be fixed any day now (apart from the fact that the trend has been down for months now). None of the factors improved, as momentum also slowed notably.

A considerable area of investor concern remains on emerging economies. As UBS' Larry Hatheway notes, the last thing that vulnerable emerging economies need at the moment is worries about a global growth slowdown, if that is indeed what is happening. That’s particularly true given that one of the relative few bright spots in the emerging complex of late was improved PMIs, reflecting some pickup in global manufacturing, exports and trade. While that lift might not help the down-trodden commodity producers within the emerging complex, it is helpful for the more manufacturing-oriented economies of Asia, selected parts of EMEA, or Latin America. But as Hatheway warns below, emerging vulnerability is about much more than just growth.

When the Arab Spring sprung a few years ago, the world's eyes only really cared about one nation. If Saudi Arabia's elite could not keep paying off their poor, an uprising in the world's largest oil supplier could have significant (and catastrophic) consequences for the rest of the world. Of course, between being paid to lose weight (in gold) and raising unemployment insurance, the government has kept trouble at bay. However, things are shifting. As DPA repots, two police were killed after coming under heavy gunfire while trying to arrest several Shiite activists. Of course, this is a one off but notable in its occurrence for the first time since 2011. Saudi Arabia blames Iran of inciting its Shiite citizens to disturb security and stability.

Last year saw a great number of widely publicized instances of food fraud and general nastiness when it came to the various items many of us regularly put in our bodies. From “fake tuna,” to rat meat in the streets of Shanghai, to alcohol in New Jersey diluted with “river water,” the list was seemingly endless. While 2014 has been off to a slow start, it appears the corporate food industry in America is trying to make up for lost time. According to a news release from the USDA on Valentine’s Day: "Rancho Feeding Corporation, a Petaluma, Calif. establishment, is recalling approximately 8,742,700 pounds, because it processed diseased and unsound animals and carried out these activities without the benefit or full benefit of federal inspection." Basically if you live California, Florida, Illinois, Oregon, Texas and Washington you should stay away from Hot Pockets.

The market value of a stock quote continues to plummet. As Nanex shows so graphically below, it's taking more quotes to get the same amount of trading done in today's stock market, meaning that everyone has to process more information than ever before, yet actual trading continues to stagnate... not just taking money out of the pockets of investors, but actually destroying wealth (not merely redistributing it).

While deciphering the adjustments, compulsory one-off charges, promises, ranges, and hopes, dreams, and unicorn tears is hard, the market saw headline beats in EPS and Revenues and surged GRPN above $12 enabling CNBC to proclaim it a winner before moving on... then someone (or maybe a machine) read the statement... "Groupon expects Adjusted EBITDA for the full year to be slightly above 2013 levels." That's just not gonna cut it when you can spend $19 billion on the hope of exponential growth... and sure enough, GRPN shares collapsed - down over 23% from the after-hours highs.

The answer may surprise you.

Headlines will suggest that today's rally was due to the beat in US PMI (a data item that doesn't even rank on Bloomberg's scale of economic importance) and chose to ignore the misses (macro and micro) in everything else (which must be weather-related), the facts are different - it was simply an AUDJPY-inspired almost perfect correlation levitation from the post-China-PMI miss lows - more China QE to come. Having decoupled from USDJPY overnight, today's melt-up in stocks recoupled the all-important fun-durr-mental pair and lifted the Russell 2000 back to unchanged for 2014. With OPEX tomorrow, VIX was noisy and remains bearishly divergent from stocks (though was offered today). Credit markets lifted with stocks. Treasury yields rose back to modestly higher on the week. Gold and silver rose on the day starting from the China PMI miss (as did the USD with most of the majors losing ground against it). US Macro hits fresh 6-month lows.

4.1%... yield on 5Y state-owned Indian company bond rated near junk...

Central bankers have destroyed money and interest rates to the point that near-bankrupt companies in shaky jurisdictions can borrow money for practically nothing. It’s an utter farce.