Archive - Feb 20, 2014 - Story

WTF will be the head-scratching meme of the day. After spending weeks 'denying' facts and blaming weather for just how bad all the macro data in the US has been recently (US Macro index at six-month lows), Markit's US PMI just smashed expectations, printing at 56.7 (vs 53.6 exp.). All the main sub-indices from new orders to employment rose markedly suggesting all is well with the recovery and that weather has had no effect whatsoever. In fact, US PMI jumped the most on record in February. Of course, USDJPY was spanked on this 'great news' and that smashed US equity markets higher, filling the China PMI miss gap down.

The importing of Japan's deflation continues: in January headline consumer prices as well as prices excluding food and energy rose by 0.1%, in line with expectations, and down from a downward revised 0.2% in December. The annual increase in prices rose modestly from 1.5% to 1.6%, but still below the Fed's 2.0% target. The main reason for the increase? Why the polar vortex, and specifically soaring electricity prices as a result of the surge in nat gas. "Increases in the indexes for household energy accounted for most of the all items increase. The electricity index posted its largest increase since March 2010, and the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil also rose sharply. These increases more than offset a decline in the gasoline index, resulting in a 0.6 percent increase in the energy index."

For the 4th week of the last 5, initial claims missed expectations (though very modestly 336k vs 335k exp). This data confirms the trend that so many clung to last year as a driver of the equity market - or indicative of the recovery's self-sustaining nature - has now ended. On average, initial claims have now been flat for 8 months. The labor department proclaimed no special (weather-related) factors or states estimating claims last week as total benefit rolls increased by 37,000 to 2.98 million - the first rise since the start of the year.

At least 50 are dead, according to Reuters, and hundreds injured as fresh fighting broke out in central Kiev this morning breaking the apparent truce that was in place last night. Who is to blame is up for discussion but of little import in the end as the death toll mounts and live ammunition is being used by the police. A Ukrainian presidential statement said dozens of police were killed or wounded during the opposition offensive hours after Yanukovich and opposition leaders had agreed on a truce... Other witnesses said they saw government snipers firing into the civilian crowds during the clashes..."What truce? There is no truce! It is simply war ahead of us! They are provoking us..."

• Facebook CEO Raises Dealmaker Profile With $19 Billion Takeover (BBG)
• WhatsApp’s Founder Goes From Food Stamps to Billionaire (BBG)
• U.S. Feels Putin's Sharp Elbows in Ukraine (WSJ)
• PBOC Drains Cash as Overnight Rate Slides to Lowest in 10 Months (BBG)
• Fed Puts Rate Increase on the Radar (Hilsenrath)
• Banks Flouting Bonus Rules in Denmark Set to Be Named by FSA (BBG)
• Work Set to Resume on Upgrading Panama Canal (WSJ)
• Euro-Area Recovery Loses Pace as Manufacturing Weakens (BBG) - uh, what recovery?
• Ukraine Exposes EU Policy Disarray (WSJ)

In what has become a quarterly tradition, Wal-Mart once again swung and missed, largely as expected - after all it snowed in the quarter. Just kidding. While the WMT bottom line was more or less in line, with Adjusted EPS of $1.60 beating expectations of $1.59, the world's largest retailer missed on the top line posting $129.71 billion in Q4 revenue compared to $130.24 billion expected. What also disappointed was the decline in free cash flow which dropped from $12.7 billion in 2012 to $10.1 billion in 2013. What is worse is that the company reported sliding Q4 comp store sales, which declined -0.4% with and without fuel, compared to an expectation of a +0.2% increase, and well below the 0.5% increase a year ago. But the biggest hit was in the company guidance which now expects Q1 and Full Year EPS of $1.10-1.20 and $5.45-$5.55; both below the sellside consensus of $1.24 and $5.55. Alas for Walmart, it is impossible to blame the weather for weaker upcoming results, and so the company didn't even try. Instead what the company did blame for the current and future weakness is, naturally, the economy, the weak consumer, who is now receiving less government handouts, as well as tighter credit and notably, higher healthcare costs. These combined made Walmart admit that it will be "difficult to achieve the goal we have of growing operating income at the same or faster rate than sales."

After learning that it snowed in China this winter following the release of the abysmal February Flash HSBC PMI numbers, we found out that there had also been snow in Europe, following misses across virtually all key French, German and composite PMIs with the exception of the German Services PMI which was the sole "beater" out of 6. To wit:

• Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Feb A) M/M 53.0 vs Exp. 54.0 (Prev. 54.0); Eurozone PMI Services (Feb A) M/M 51.7 vs Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 51.6)
• German Manufacturing PMI (Feb A) M/M 54.7 vs. Exp. 56.3 (Prev. 56.5); German PMI Services (Feb A) M/M 55.4 vs Exp. 53.4 (Prev. 53.1)
• French PMI Manufacturing (Feb P) M/M 48.5 vs. Exp. 49.6 (Prev. 49.3); French PMI Services (Feb P) M/M 46.9 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 48.9)

Of course, economic data is the last thing that matters in a manipulated market. Instead, all that does matter is what the USDJPY does overnight, and as we forecast yesterday, the USDJPY 102 tractor beam is alive and well and managed to pull equity futures from a -10 drop overnight to nearly unchanged, despite the now traditional pattern of USDJPY selling during the overnight session and buying during the US session.