Archive - Feb 6, 2014 - Story

We thought today's newsflow and "market action" ranked pretty high on the absurd surrealism scale. And then we saw this.

BLYTHE MASTERS TO JOIN CFTC GLOBAL MARKETS COMMITTEE
JPMORGAN’S BLYTHE MASTERS TO JOIN CFTC ADVISORY COMMITTEE

It's almost as if they are explicitly telling the handful of people who still care about this entire charade a resounding "fuck you."

One of the more interesting aspects of the Arab Spring is that it largely spared the Gulf monarchies. To be sure, the monarchies in Bahrain and Jordan had to contend with a degree of unrest. Still, the core of the Arab Spring protests occurred in the Arab Republics, some of which fell from power. By comparison, the monarchies in the region - many of which are located in the Persian Gulf - were spared the worst of the unrest. Although this possibility cannot be discounted, the Persian Gulf and other Arab monarchies face a much graver threat to their stability, and that threat originates in Asia. Specifically, the economic slowdowns in Asia in general, and China and India in particular, could very well ignite a second Arab Spring, and this one would not spare the monarchies.

While Bitcoin has been relatively more stable than high-frequency-traded US equity markets in the last few weeks, the news that HFT tool provider Perseus Telecom will be accepting Bitcoin for its services. As The FT reports, move highlights high-frequency traders’ increasing interest in trading Bitcoin as global regulators indicate a growing acceptance of fast-emerging digital currencies - despite several high-profile arrests.Perseus CEO, Jock Mr Percy said the extension of high-frequency trading into virtual currencies would change the nature of the Bitcoin market over time.

If there was any doubt whether the intercepted "Fuck the EU" phone call between Assistant Secretary of State Nuland and the US Ambassador to the Ukraine Pyatt was authentic, it can now be laid to rest: in an earlier response to questions from reporters, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki did not dispute authenticity of recording and essentially confirmed it was real "I didn’t say it was inauthentic." However, in the tried and true fashion of assigning blame elsewhere, the world learned that it was really all Russia's fault and the released intercept was a "new low of Russian tradecraft." She added that there are moments "in every diplomatic relationship" when you disagree, Psaki says. But the absolute punchline: "It’s concerning that private conversation was recorded."  Perhaps maybe the NSA can opine on the concernability of a private conversation being recorded.

This is an important jobs report. Not because it matters in the least whether the US economy added 170,000 new jobs or 185,000 new jobs. Not because it matters a whit whether the unemployment rate goes up or down 1/10th of 1 percent. No, the importance of this jobs report rests in two related linguistic games. Here's how to translate the lingo.... and then how to trade it.

The taper program distances the bankers from responsibility for crisis in our financial framework, at least in the eyes of the general public. If a market calamity takes place while stimulus measures are still at full speed, this makes the banks look rather guilty, or at least incompetent. People would begin to question the validity of central bank methods, and they might even question the validity of the central bank’s existence. The Fed is creating space between itself and the economy because they know that a trigger event is coming. They want to ensure that they are not blamed and that stimulus itself is not seen as ineffective, or seen as the cause. We all know that the claims of recovery are utter nonsense. The taper is not in response to an improving economic environment. Rather, the taper is a signal for the next stage of collapse. The real reason stocks and other indicators are stumbling is because the effectiveness of stimulus manipulation has a shelf life, and that shelf life is over for the Federal Reserve.

Back from the lunar new year celebrations - having missed out on all the excitement in global turmoiling markets - the Chinese markets are re-open for business. However, despite the world of status-quo-apologists telling us that China's liquidity crisis was a storm in a teacup and would blow over once the 'normal' new year needs were met (and CEQ#1 was bailed out), it turns out that liquidity needs remain high... very high. Repo rates across the spectrum are higher with immediate overnight liquidity costs up 127bps to 4.27%. Get back to work Mr. PBOC as there's CNY 375 billion of year-end liquidity to be mopped up (tightened out of the system).

At 50.7, HSBC's China Services PMI is 0.1 above its previous record low from August 2011. In contrast to the manufacturing side of the economy - which lost jobs at the fastest rate since March 2009 - the services side saw a modest rise in employment but, as HSBC notes, as part of efforts to boost sales, both manufacturers and service providers cut their selling prices in January at the strongest rate of discounting since June 2012. The backlog of work for service providers dropped for the first time since April 2013 and new order growth was the slowest in 7 months. . HSBC's Chief Economist noted: “The slower expansion of services activities in January reflected soft manufacturing growth and the impact of Beijing's latest measures to curb official extravagance." Need more graft and expensive watches stat!

Let's hope not...

The death of the middle class in America has become so painfully obvious that now even the New York Times is doing stories about it.  Millions of middle class jobs have disappeared, incomes are steadily decreasing, the rate of homeownership has declined for eight years in a row and U.S. consumers have accumulated record-setting levels of debt.  Being independent is at the heart of what it means to be "middle class", and unfortunately the percentage of Americans that are able to take care of themselves without government assistance continues to decline.  In fact, the percentage of Americans that are receiving government assistance is now at an all-time record high.  This is not a good thing. Anyone that tries to tell you that the middle class is going to be "okay" simply has no idea what they are talking about.  The following are 28 signs that the middle class is heading toward extinction...

Last week it was the largest equity outflow in over two years. This week, following the Monday drubbing which had the temerity to push the S&P to an "unprecedented" 5% from its all time highs, the timid retail investor said enough, and ran for the hills resulting in the largest equity outflow. Ever.

A leaked recording of a telephone conversation allegedly between US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland and the US envoy to the Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing who should be in Ukraine's next government has, according to The FT, threatened to fuel east-west tensions over the troubled nation's future. In apparent frustration with the EU – which has failed to join the US in threatening sanctions against Ukraine’s leaders if they violently crush the protests – the voice resembling Ms Nuland at one point exclaims "Fuck the EU". As the two US diplomats decide whether "Klitsch" or "Yats" should be 'in' or 'out', listeners will be reminded (uncomfortably) that the governments of Ukraine and Russia previously alleged that the protests are being funded and orchestrated by the US.

How long can economic growth continue in a finite world? In simplest terms, our problem is that we as a people are no longer getting richer. The reason we are getting poorer is because hidden parts of our economy are now absorbing more and more resources, leaving fewer resources to produce the goods and services we are used to buying. The promised collapse, from 1972's The Limits of Growth, is practically right around the corner, beginning in the next year or two. In fact, many aspects of the collapse appear already to be taking place, such as the 2008-2009 Great Recession and the collapse of the economies of smaller countries such as Greece and Spain. How could collapse be so close, with virtually no warning to the population?

As the US practically decrees a Maserati in every garage, it would seem the Venezuelan version of socialism is not encouraging its wealth redistributed, price-managed, margin-controlled, centrally-planned citizens to buy cars... January saw the lowest volume of car sales ever on record at 722 (not '000s) having dropped 87% year-over-year. At least they have record high stocks and toilet paper... oh wait...

The following chart shows that we’ve turned the economic development process inside out. Ideally, advanced economies would stick to the disciplined financial practices that helped make them strong between the early-19th and mid-20th centuries, while emerging economies would “catch up” by building similar track records. Instead, advanced economies are catching down and threatening to throw the entire world into the kind of recurring crisis mode to which you’re accustomed if you live in, say, Buenos Aires. Here are eight reasons why things got so bad!