Archive - Feb 2014 - Story

The answer may surprise you.

Headlines will suggest that today's rally was due to the beat in US PMI (a data item that doesn't even rank on Bloomberg's scale of economic importance) and chose to ignore the misses (macro and micro) in everything else (which must be weather-related), the facts are different - it was simply an AUDJPY-inspired almost perfect correlation levitation from the post-China-PMI miss lows - more China QE to come. Having decoupled from USDJPY overnight, today's melt-up in stocks recoupled the all-important fun-durr-mental pair and lifted the Russell 2000 back to unchanged for 2014. With OPEX tomorrow, VIX was noisy and remains bearishly divergent from stocks (though was offered today). Credit markets lifted with stocks. Treasury yields rose back to modestly higher on the week. Gold and silver rose on the day starting from the China PMI miss (as did the USD with most of the majors losing ground against it). US Macro hits fresh 6-month lows.

4.1%... yield on 5Y state-owned Indian company bond rated near junk...

Central bankers have destroyed money and interest rates to the point that near-bankrupt companies in shaky jurisdictions can borrow money for practically nothing. It’s an utter farce.

London’s economy may be decoupling from the rest of the U.K. at an accelerating pace. As Bloomberg's Niraj Shah explains, the capital’s contribution to U.K. output, house prices and financial jobs are all at a record high while the suicide rate is at a series low... while the rest of the nation is 'not'.

... this one is the last one, we promise...

The mirage of prosperity created by massive levels of debt has begun to show it foundational cracks. Without increased levels of personal savings, production and investment there is little ability to achieve stronger economic growth. While we can certainly "hope" for something different, there are some basic laws which are insurmountable. The physics of debt is one of them.

"The American people are very leery of getting involved in another squabble in some other country," warns Ron Paul following the breakdown in the truce in Ukraine and President Obama's drawing of more red-lines. In this succinct interview with FOX, the former congressman sums it up perfectly, "That’s their business, and it certainly isn’t ours," he said. "We’ve tried it for too long, and the American people are sick and tired of it, and we’re also out of money." Indeed, but the Keynesians must be getting excited...

It seems the Democratic Republic of Congo has been learning its diplomacy from other nations...

• *DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO POLICE FIRE ON OPPOSITION RALLY
• *CONGO POLICE FIRED TEAR GAS, BULLETS AT RALLY IN BUKAVU
• *CONGO POLICE BLOCKED OPPOSITION LEADER KAMERHE AT RALLY
• *CONGO OPPOSITION SAY SEVERAL WOUNDED AFTER SHOTS FIRED

Of course, we will have to see if China (who has been building interest in Africa), Russia, the US, or France (who seem to like to stir things up in Africa) get involved?

With all eyes focused on Ukraine, the situation in Venezuela has once again escalated as protest leader Leopoldo Lopez' arrest (and possible 10 year jail sentence) prompted more violence overnight. However, as we warned, the government crackdown is starting to raise concerns about the stability of the government.

*VENEZUELA PROTESTS ESCALATING INTO NATIONWIDE UNREST; ESCALATION OF PROTESTS PUTS STABILITY OF GOVT AT RISK; RISING VIOLENCE COULD LEAD TO MADURO OUSTER BY MILITARY: IHS

As opposition leader Capriles asks Venezuela's military to uphold the constitution, he exclaims that "the poor' must participate for government to change.

Following hours of talks between three European foreign ministers and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in Kiev, the EU has decided to go ahead with sanctions:

• *EU COMMITS TO SANCTIONS AGAINST UKRAINE
• *EU TO WORK OUT UKRAINE ASSET FREEZE, VISA BAN SOON
• *EU TO SUSPEND UKRAINE EXP0RT LICENSES FOR `REPRESSIVE' GEAR

Having already proclaimed this move as "blackmail", we are sure the Russians will be utilizing this move to further their support for the catastrophically divided nation.

In the aftermath of the Snowden revelations about the NSA's ubiquitous presence in everyday lives, and unconstitutional interception, eavesdropping and recording of every form of electronic communication, the logical assumption would be that the next step for the NSA would be its reduction instead of expansion, especially following the president's heartfelt reading from the TOTUS several months ago in which he promised to do all he could, to curb the spy agency. "Surprisingly" expansion is precisely what will happen to the NSA - as WSJ reports the "government is considering enlarging the National Security Agency's controversial collection of Americans' phone records—an unintended consequence of lawsuits seeking to stop the surveillance program, according to officials." Unintended? It is very much intended now that Americans know that the concept of privacy is dead and buried and will instead seek other methods to communicate. Which simply means the NSA has to get even bigger in order to thwart the imminent, daily and "clear and present" danger that US citizen-cum-terrorists pose to the US despotic totalitarian state republic.

Once we get rid of these obsolete middleman parasites - Wall Street, the banking sector and the Federal Reserve - we have a delightful question to answer: what else can we do with the $1.25 trillion we'll save every year by eliminating these obsolete financial middleman parasites? A lot.

Just in case one was wondering for a reason not to take "Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange" too seriously, here is the latest news that has largely slammed the coffin shut on what was once the largest Bitcoin exchange.

The Ukrainian health minister just state that at least 64 have died since February 18th; protesters claim the number is over 100 - either way, this is horrific (and we suspect, once the Olympics is over, will get worse). As Martin Armstrong outlines below, Ukraine is the pawn on the chessboard. The propaganda war is East v West.

WHITE HOUSE URGES UKRAINE PRESIDENT TO IMMEDIATELY WITHDRAW SECURITY FORCES FROM DOWNTOWN KIEV, RESOLVE CRISIS BY POLITICAL MEANS; 'OUTRAGED' BY ACTIONS OF UKRANIAN SECURITY FORCES

Ad Russia proclaims US/EU sanctions as "balckmail." However, those power plays are masking the core issue that began with the Orange Revolution – corruption. Armstrong warns that "Yanukovych is a dictator who will never leave office. It is simple as that. There will be no real elections again in Ukraine." This is starting to spiral down into a confrontation that the entire world cannot ignore.

Despite record low yields on sovereign bonds, record high stock prices, and a political elite proclaiming it's all shits and giggles from here... it seems record unemployment, record suicide rates, record bad loans, and record low credit creation were finally enough to trump the 'wealth effect' exuberance that European consumer confidence has envisaged in recent months. This is the biggest drop in confidence in 18 months and the biggest miss since Aug 2011. This is a 3 sigma miss from expectations and below all 25 "economist" guesses. How's the weather in Europe?