Archive - Feb 2014 - Story

• European Bonds Surge on Slowing German Inflation, Ukraine Tumult  (BBG)
• Ukraine tensions hit shares (Reuters)
• Debating Geithner’s Appearances in 2008 Transcripts  (Hilsenrath)
• Tensions in Asia Stoke Rising Nationalism in Japan (WSJ)
• GM Investigated Over Ignition Recall Linked to 13 Deaths (BBG)
• Smartphone wars shift from gadgetry to price (Reuters)
• Some Companies Alter the Bonus Playbook (WSJ)
• London’s Subterranean Luxury Manors Lure New Breed of Lenders (BBG)
• Japan No Country for Old Farmers as 7-Eleven Takes Plow (BBG)
• Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs (BBG)

Three unlucky attempts in a row to retake the S&P 500 all time high may have been all we get, at least for now, because the fourth one is shaping up to be rather problematic following events out of the Crimean in the past three hours where the Ukraine situation has gone from bad to worse, and have dragged the all important risk indicator, the USDJPY, below 102.000 once again. As a result, global stock futures have fallen from the European open this morning, with the DAX future well below 9600 to mark levels not seen since last Thursday. Escalated tensions in the Ukraine have raised concerns of the spillover effects to Western Europe and Russia, as a Russian flag is lifted by occupying gunmen in the Crimean (Southern Ukrainian peninsula) parliament, prompting an emergency session of Crimean lawmakers to discuss the fate of the region. This, allied with reports of the mobilisation of Russian jets on the Western border has weighed on risk sentiment, sending the German 10yr yield to July 2013 lows.

Credit is a wonderful tool that can help advance the division of labor, thereby increasing productivity and prosperity. The granting of credit enables savers to spread their income over time, as they prefer. By taking out loans, investors can implement productive spending plans that they would be unable to afford using their own resources. The economically beneficial effects of credit can only come about, however, if the underlying credit and monetary system is solidly based on free-market principles. And here is a major problem for today’s economies: the prevailing credit and monetary regime is irreconcilable with the free market system.

"The extent of unproductive investment in China today is much greater than was the case for Japan at a comparable phase of development," warns Deutsche's EM strategist John-Paul Smith, and one glance at the chart below suggests China is tracing an ominous path towards the same "lost-decade" that un-inspired Japan since the mid-80s. While the PBOC is less interested in goosing its own stock market (since ownership is so low), Chinese stocks (down 60% from 2007 highs) "seem to be saying that there is a significant risk of a major slowdown."

This infographic introduces the yellow metal and tells the story of how it became the most sought after metal on earth. Gold was one of the first metals discovered by ancient peoples and eventually gold grew to symbolize both wealth, royalty, and immortality. The rarity, malleability, durability, ease to identify, and intrinsic value of gold made it perfect for money. In modern history, gold was shaped by events such as Roosevelt’s confiscation order in 1933 and President Nixon ending the direct convertibility of gold to US dollars in 1971. Although gold is no longer the basis of the modern monetary system, there is more gold demand today than ever before.

Advancements in Web 2.0 technology and the rising popularity of online dating should make it easier now – more than ever - to find "The One."  So why, ConvergEx's Nick Colas asks, is the U.S. marriage rate still declining when technology is making the process of finding a mate so much more convenient and efficient? For one, cohabitation (both before marriage and instead of marriage) is increasingly popular. Also, there’s the urbanization trend which yields an influx of young, single professionals into major cities across the country; they’re apparently more focused on career than family. However, as Colas continues, falling marriage rates go hand-in-hand with a host of socio-economic issues, and the problem is exacerbated in those with lower levels of educational attainment. A continuation of this trend would undoubtedly have negative implications for society as a whole and further enhance the gap between rich and poor.

The seemingly incessant strengthening trend of the Chinese Yuan (much as with the seemingly inexorable rise of US equities or home prices) has encouraged huge amounts of structured products to be created over the past few years enabling traders to position for more of the same in increasingly levered ways. That was all going great until the last few weeks which has seen China enter the currency wars (as we explained here). The problem, among many facing China, is that these structured products will face major losses and as Morgan Stanley warns "real pain will come if CNY stays above these levels," leading to further capital withdrawal, illiquidity, and a potential vicious circle as it appears the PBOC is trying to break the virtuous carry trade that has fueled so much of its bubble economy.

When civilians launched a suicidal attack on an armed force in Kyiv on February 20, their sense of representing “the nation” far outweighed their concern with their individual mortality. The result was to swing a deeply divided society from the verge of civil war to an unprecedented sense of unity. Whether that unity endures will depend on how Europe responds. We hope and trust that Europe under German leadership will rise to the occasion.  We must, however, end with a word of caution. A replay of the Cold War would cause immense damage to both Russia and Europe, and most of all to Ukraine, which is situated between them.

  When a hypertotalitarian banana republic takes another turn for the gigasurreal, even Elon Musk is speechless.

Shortly after the US warned Russia over its "provocative actions" with regard Ukraine...

• *KERRY: RUSSIA MILITARY MOVE ON UKRAINE WOULD BE GRAVE MISTAKE

RiaNovosti reports defense minister Sergei Shoigu saying Russia plans "to expand permanent military presence outside its borders by placing military bases in a number of foreign countries," including Vietnam, Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, the Seychelles, and Singapore. "The talks are under way, and we are close to signing the relevant documents," Shoigu told reporters in Moscow.

The mainstream financial media nearly wet its collective pants with excitement in reporting that the planet's corporations paid $1 trillion in dividends in 2013. What they didn't report is that clearing billions in profit is about to get much harder. The point is this: technology lowers margins, and credit bubbles inevitably pop. Any company or nation that depends on maintaining high margins in credit-bubble-based "growth" is about to find that it's much harder to net $1 billion, much less $1 trillion.

Kevin Lau, the 49-year-old former editor of the respected Ming Pao newspaper (who was unexpectedly replaced last month by journalist with no experience) following his reporting on human rights abuses in China is in critical condition after being attacked with a meat-cleaver. As The Daily Mail reports, slashed three times by a man in a crash helmet in a residential neighbourhood who then fled on a motorbike, police said. His sudden dismissal sparked protests across the city over freedom of the press as the move raised fears among journalists that the newspaper's owners were moving to curb aggressive reporting on human rights and corruption in China. It appears, given this attack, they were right.

Harvard's Research Computing department's 14,000-core supercomputer "Odyssey" has been moonlighting as a virtual currency miner. As The Register reports, a Harvard student has had their access credentials revoked after the discovery that the Odyssey cluster had been scheduled for use in a Dogecoin mining operation. Harvard is not happy: "Any participation in 'Klondike' style digital mining operations or contests for profit requiring Harvard owned assets to examine digital currency key strength and length are strictly prohibited for fairly obvious reasons."

The [growing deficits of the past 50 years] suggest that we’ve never been in a predicament comparable to today. Essentially, the world’s developed countries are following the same path that’s failed, time and again, in chronically insolvent nations of the developing world. Look at it this way: the chart shows that we’ve turned the economic development process inside out. Ideally, advanced economies would stick to the disciplined financial practices that helped make them strong between the early-19th and mid-20th centuries, while emerging economies would “catch up” by building similar track records. Instead, advanced economies are catching down and threatening to throw the entire world into the kind of recurring crisis mode to which you’re accustomed if you live in, say, Buenos Aires.

Moments ago JCP did what it does best: released results that missed expectations, with Revenues in the traditionally strongest, holiday (Q4) quarter of $3.78 billion below the $3.86 billion expected, and comp sales up 2.0% below the 2.1% expected. Additionally, the company's profit margin was 28.4%, the second lowest in recent history, and only better than the 23.8% posted a year ago when the company was openly imploding. But the red flag was Free Cash Flow, driven entirely by inventory liquidation, was $246 million: the lowest such amount for the holiday quarter also in history. Whether or not this miss was not quite as bad as a worst case miss could be, whatever that means, is unclear but for now the traditional post-earning squeeze has pushed the stock higher. How long this particular squeeze persists is unclear, but likely depends on the longer-term viability of the company, and recent trends. To determine what these are, here are some charts showing how the company has performed in recent years.