Archive - Feb 2014 - Story

UPDATE: Stocks have bounced on USDJPY's jump back to 102 (as we warned) but Treasuries are not playing along

Bonds are surging and gold is well bid as the jobs report had little to offer the hopeful. The anti-goldilocks number slammed bonds with the 10Y Yield to unchanged on the week (down around 8bps on the kneejerk), gold is testing $1270 as JPY strength provides ammunition for derisking in the equity markets. S&P futures spiked 11 points higher on the release as algos went wild, then fell over 20 points from that high and are bouncing back modestly now. Of course, we are still 45 minutes from the US open so expect USDJPY to be levered back to 102 and lift stocks to make retail believe everything is fine...

So much for the hope of either a surge in January jobs, or a massive upward revision in the December print. Moments ago the January jobs number came out and at 113K, it was a huge miss to the expected 180K, but more importantly, the December number which was expected to be revised much higher was virtually unchanged at 75K, compared to 74K originally. The unemployment rate, which has become largely irrelevant, dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%, just so Obama can get the brownie points for fixing the economy. However, judging by the market reaction this is hardly what the traders think.

• HSBC 171K
• Barclays 175K
• Citigroup 180K
• Bank of America 185K
• Deutsche Bank 200K
• UBS 200K
• Goldman Sachs 200K
• JP Morgan 205K

Following rate-rigging scandals, FX manipulation debacles, insider-trading idiocy, and over-aggressive lending practices, bankers are taking a different approach in regaining some public trust. As Jamie Dimon gives himself a "well-deserved" pay rise, Dutch bankers are turning to God... As Bloomberg reports, all 90,000 Dutch bank employees will take an oath 'to do no harm' as it were, punishable by the Banking Association. While Goldman may be doing God's work; the Dutch are vowing to Him to enhance confidence in their industry.

In what was a shocking and disappointing at the same time decision, overnight the German Constitutional court, which had been contemplating the legality of the ECB's still non-existent OMT program, conceived in July 2012 to prevent the collapse of the Eurozone and still only existing in Mario Draghi's head as it has zero legal documentation supporting it, said that, in its judgment, the ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions program likely exceeded the central bank's powers. "There are important reasons to assume that [the OMT] exceeds the European Central Bank's monetary policy mandate and thus infringes the powers of the member states, and that it violates the prohibition of monetary financing of the budget," the German court said Friday. "Subject to the interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Union, the Federal Constitutional Court considers the OMT decision incompatible with primary law," the German court said.

• Here is why AAPL bounced off $500: Apple Repurchases $14 Billion of Own Shares in Two Weeks (WSJ)
• German Court Refers OMT Decision to Europe's Top Court (WSJ)
• Inflation Fuels Crises in Two Latin Nations (WSJ)
• U.S. job growth seen snapping back from winter chill (Reuters)
• Google to own $750 million Lenovo stake after Motorola deal closes: HK exchange (Reuters)
• Frigid Winter Spells Trouble for U.S. Economy (BBG)
• Winter Games to open, Putin keen to prove doubters wrong (Reuters)
• Regulators Ready to Proceed on Bank Leverage Limit (WSJ)
• Abe Eyes Window for Biggest Military-Rule Change Since WWII (BBG)

It's that time again, when a largely random, statistically-sampled, weather-impacted, seasonally-adjusted, and finally goalseeked number, sets the mood in the market for the next month: we are talking of course about the "most important ever" once again non-farm payroll print, and to a lesser extent the unemployment rate which even the Fed has admitted is meaningless in a time when the participation rate is crashing (for the "philosophy" of why it is all the context that matters in reading the jobs report, see here). Adding to the confusion, or hilarity, or both, is that while everyone knows it snowed in December and January, Goldman now warns that... it may have been too hot! To wit: "We expect a weather-related boost to January payroll job growth because weather during the survey week itself - which we find is most relevant to a given month's payroll number - was unusually mild." In other words, if the number is abnormally good - don't assume more tapering, just blame it on the warm weather!

We thought today's newsflow and "market action" ranked pretty high on the absurd surrealism scale. And then we saw this.

BLYTHE MASTERS TO JOIN CFTC GLOBAL MARKETS COMMITTEE
JPMORGAN’S BLYTHE MASTERS TO JOIN CFTC ADVISORY COMMITTEE

It's almost as if they are explicitly telling the handful of people who still care about this entire charade a resounding "fuck you."

One of the more interesting aspects of the Arab Spring is that it largely spared the Gulf monarchies. To be sure, the monarchies in Bahrain and Jordan had to contend with a degree of unrest. Still, the core of the Arab Spring protests occurred in the Arab Republics, some of which fell from power. By comparison, the monarchies in the region - many of which are located in the Persian Gulf - were spared the worst of the unrest. Although this possibility cannot be discounted, the Persian Gulf and other Arab monarchies face a much graver threat to their stability, and that threat originates in Asia. Specifically, the economic slowdowns in Asia in general, and China and India in particular, could very well ignite a second Arab Spring, and this one would not spare the monarchies.

While Bitcoin has been relatively more stable than high-frequency-traded US equity markets in the last few weeks, the news that HFT tool provider Perseus Telecom will be accepting Bitcoin for its services. As The FT reports, move highlights high-frequency traders’ increasing interest in trading Bitcoin as global regulators indicate a growing acceptance of fast-emerging digital currencies - despite several high-profile arrests.Perseus CEO, Jock Mr Percy said the extension of high-frequency trading into virtual currencies would change the nature of the Bitcoin market over time.

If there was any doubt whether the intercepted "Fuck the EU" phone call between Assistant Secretary of State Nuland and the US Ambassador to the Ukraine Pyatt was authentic, it can now be laid to rest: in an earlier response to questions from reporters, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki did not dispute authenticity of recording and essentially confirmed it was real "I didn’t say it was inauthentic." However, in the tried and true fashion of assigning blame elsewhere, the world learned that it was really all Russia's fault and the released intercept was a "new low of Russian tradecraft." She added that there are moments "in every diplomatic relationship" when you disagree, Psaki says. But the absolute punchline: "It’s concerning that private conversation was recorded."  Perhaps maybe the NSA can opine on the concernability of a private conversation being recorded.

This is an important jobs report. Not because it matters in the least whether the US economy added 170,000 new jobs or 185,000 new jobs. Not because it matters a whit whether the unemployment rate goes up or down 1/10th of 1 percent. No, the importance of this jobs report rests in two related linguistic games. Here's how to translate the lingo.... and then how to trade it.

The taper program distances the bankers from responsibility for crisis in our financial framework, at least in the eyes of the general public. If a market calamity takes place while stimulus measures are still at full speed, this makes the banks look rather guilty, or at least incompetent. People would begin to question the validity of central bank methods, and they might even question the validity of the central bank’s existence. The Fed is creating space between itself and the economy because they know that a trigger event is coming. They want to ensure that they are not blamed and that stimulus itself is not seen as ineffective, or seen as the cause. We all know that the claims of recovery are utter nonsense. The taper is not in response to an improving economic environment. Rather, the taper is a signal for the next stage of collapse. The real reason stocks and other indicators are stumbling is because the effectiveness of stimulus manipulation has a shelf life, and that shelf life is over for the Federal Reserve.

Back from the lunar new year celebrations - having missed out on all the excitement in global turmoiling markets - the Chinese markets are re-open for business. However, despite the world of status-quo-apologists telling us that China's liquidity crisis was a storm in a teacup and would blow over once the 'normal' new year needs were met (and CEQ#1 was bailed out), it turns out that liquidity needs remain high... very high. Repo rates across the spectrum are higher with immediate overnight liquidity costs up 127bps to 4.27%. Get back to work Mr. PBOC as there's CNY 375 billion of year-end liquidity to be mopped up (tightened out of the system).

At 50.7, HSBC's China Services PMI is 0.1 above its previous record low from August 2011. In contrast to the manufacturing side of the economy - which lost jobs at the fastest rate since March 2009 - the services side saw a modest rise in employment but, as HSBC notes, as part of efforts to boost sales, both manufacturers and service providers cut their selling prices in January at the strongest rate of discounting since June 2012. The backlog of work for service providers dropped for the first time since April 2013 and new order growth was the slowest in 7 months. . HSBC's Chief Economist noted: “The slower expansion of services activities in January reflected soft manufacturing growth and the impact of Beijing's latest measures to curb official extravagance." Need more graft and expensive watches stat!