Archive - Mar 10, 2014 - Story

That Ukraine "drill" may be coming at just the right time. Just out from Reuters:

• RUSSIAN TROOPS OPENED FIRE DURING TAKEOVER OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY POST IN CRIMEA, NO ONE WOUNDED -INTERFAX QUOTES UKRAINIAN BASE COMMANDER

And at the same time:

• RUSSIA'S PUTIN SAYS TOLD FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV TO INVITE U.S. COUNTERPART KERRY FOR MORE CONSULTATIONS ON UKRAINE
• RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV SAYS HAD INVITED KERRY TO RUSSIA TODAY, BUT KERRY SAID ON SATURDAY HE WOULD LIKE TO POSTPONE VISIT

No de-escalation yet. Any minute now though. The market said so.

Iron Ore prices have dropped 25% since the end of last year, sending the key steel-making component into a bear market after slumping by over 9% overnight - its biggest daily drop on record. We warned last week this was likely to happen on the heels of Copper prices fell on monetary financing fears as we explained here how Iron Ore replaced copper as the collateral pool for new loans (following China's clampdown on cash-for-copper deals last year) and stockpiles hit record highs. What is further hurting the Iron ore prices are concerns over China's new anti-pollution reforms which are set to close thousands of furnaces.

Just out from the Ukraining defense ministry:

• UKRAINE ARMED FORCES CONDUCT TRAINING DRILL: DEFENSE MINISTRY
• UKRAINE DEFENSE DRILL AIMED AT TESTING `COMBAT READINESS': MIN

It may not be an abrupt ICBM launch, but it certainly increases the odds of some unintentional, or fully intentional, provocation between the Ukrainian and Russian militaries which as we have been following over the weekend, are amassing in very disturbing numbers in Crimea and, soon, east Ukraine.

Moments ago McDonalds reported its latest monthly comp store sales numbers. Printing at -1.4% for the US, this was a nearly double miss to expectations of a 0.6% decline, and was the 4th consecutive monthly drop in annual sales - the longest such stretch in the past decade and likely longer. Looking at this data, there are two observations: i) Americans, courtesy of record obesity rates, are finally getting serious about their health, and have shunned the infamous 99 cent deep fried meals or ii) courtesy of the Fed's "Fed's recovery", the average American can no longer even afford sub-$1 deep fast food.

The disgusting images of face-mask-wearing Chinese going about their daily business in minimal visibility and lung-busting conditions are strewen across the interwebs. However, even fake sun-rises pale into significance when the full dismal reality of China's pollution problem is put in context. Perhaps the following chart is why China's latest round of reforms appear to 'declare war on pollution'.

This week brings a slew of central bank meetings: At the forefront will be the BOJ meeting on Tuesday where no changes to monetary policy are expected. However, we will be watching the commentary closely for hints to further monetary easing in the coming months. Goldman, and others, still expect the BOJ to provide additional stimulus in the second quarter of this year as the impact of the consumption tax hike on the economy becomes visible - it is that expectation that sent the USDJPY above 100 in late 2013 and any disappointment by the BOJ will certainly have an adverse impact on the all important Yen carry pair.  In terms of the key data to watch this week, the themes of recent weeks remain the same: US activity data, with retail sales and the U. Michigan Consumer sentiment survey the main releases, European inflation trends (French and German HCPI data on Thursday and Friday, respectively), and finally external balances in EM. Within that group, the latest data points for trade and current account balances in India, Turkey and South Africa will receive the most attention.

• Index of largest Chinese stocks drops to lowest since February 2009 (BBG)
• Plane-Debris Hunters Seek Suspected Aircraft Window Part (BBG)
• New-Home Building Is Shifting to Apartments (WSJ)
• Forward Guidance Risks Stoking Instability, BIS Says (BBG)
• Alleged Bitcoin Millionaire Nakamoto Gets $28,000 Donations (BBG)
• Mexico kills drug kingpin reported dead years ago (Reuters)
• Tencent to Buy 15% Stake in JD.com to Boost E-Commerce (BBG)
• Bitcoin exchange MtGox 'faced 150,000 hack attacks every second’ (Telegraph)
• Noyer Says Stronger Euro Creates Unwarranted Pressure on Economy (BBG)
• Russian Forces Gain in Ukraine as Separatist Vote Looms (BBG)

Just when it seemed that the ever deteriorating situation in the Crimean, the unexpected plunge in Chinese exports which has sent the Yuan reeling again, the Copper slam which is down some 10% in two days, and the outright collapse in Japan's capital flows, not to mention the worst GDP print under Abe, may not be quite "priced in" by a market that is now expecting well beyond perfection in perpetuity, further shown by Goldman over the weekend which reprorted that revenue multiples have never been greater, and futures may finally dip, here came - right on schedule - the USDJPY levitation liftathon, which boosted futures from down 10 to barely unchanged, and which should be green by the second USDJPY ramp some time just after 8 am.