Archive - Mar 13, 2014 - Story

On the heels of President Obama's approval rating plummeting to 41% - a record low - it is perhaps ironic that the supposedly despotic (amid shrouded in Hitler-comparisons and homosexual hatred) Vladimir Putin has seen his approval rating soar to 71.6% - a 3 year high - as Interfax notes "we now have a complex society that supports the president, primarily because of his stance on Ukraine." Interestingly 64% saw Ukraine as a key current event while 32% said that success at the Olympics was most important.

Last night's volatility in AUD (thanks to its aberration of an employment print) followed by more China data weakness has seen carry-traders shift attention back to EURJPY and USDJPY. This morning saw overnight weakness ramped into the US open to ensure media coverage proclaimed everything fixed but once the day-session opened, the selling began and stocks are down notably - tracking JPY tick for tick once again... Still believe in fundamentals and efficient markets - don't look at the chart below.

"Excessive credit growth eventually leads to a crisis," Marc Faber tells CNBC Asia, warning that "it has always happened and will again." The Gloom, Boom, & Doom editor briefly explains how the facts are that China is growing at no more than 4% per annum (if one looks beneath the government's manufactured data) and in the case of China "we have a gigantic credit bubble." Reflecting on recent price action (and the potential for social unrest), Faber exclaims, to deny the problems is to believe "the market is wrong and the government is right."

The latest foreclosure news out of RealtyTrac is out, and provides the latest proof that if there is a housing recovery somewhere, it sure isn't in the US, where the dislocations in the supply/demand for real estate are so profound that one in five homes in the foreclosure process has been vacated by the distressed homeowner. To wit: "As of the first quarter of 2014, a total of 152,033 U.S. properties in the foreclosure process (excluding bank-owned properties) had been vacated by the distressed homeowner, representing 21 percent of all properties in the foreclosure process." This means that neither the distressed homeowner or the foreclosing lender taking responsibility for maintenance and upkeep of the home, leading to a veritable army of Vacant Dead housing units that are spreading like zombies across the nation in the most improbable housing "recovery" of all time.

The 'field-of-dreams' recovery is dismally missing in action. This morning's inventory-to-sales data shows the US total at 1.32x - its highest since the financial crisis and highest in a decade aside from that. The worst sector - or more over-produced or mal-invested - drum roll please... Autos. As the following stunning chart shows, over the last 22 years, the auto-industry has only had a higher inventory-to-sales in the midst of the crisis. If we build it, they might not come... (and aparently they didn't).

It's crunch time for Ukraine.

While the Fed's interventions have certainly bolstered asset prices by driving a "carry trade," these programs do not address the central issue necessary in a consumer driven economy which is "employment." In an economy that is nearly 70% driven by consumption, production comes first in the economic order. Without a job, through which an individual produces a good or service in exchange for payment, there is no income to consume with. With the Federal Reserve now effectively removing the "patient" from life support, we will see if the economy can sustain itself.  If this recent Bloomberg poll is correct, then we are likely to get an answer very shortly, and it may very well be disappointment.

As we predicted when we highlighted the cumulative decline in the control retail sales group, it was only a matter of time before the banks started cutting their Q1 GDP forecasts. Sure enough, first it was Barclays trimming its Q1 GDP tracking forecast from 2.3% to 2.2%, and now it is Goldman's turn which just cut its latest Q1 GDP forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%.

While the sight of Russian flags, pro-Russian troops, and Russian navy ships in Crimea is now a day-to-day thing; this morning brings a new normal for the eastern Ukraine region - long lines at bank ATMs as the bank runs have begun. We noted last night the dreaded inversion of Ukraine's yield curve, the greater-than-50% yields on 3-month Ukraine government debt, and the pressures on local bank debt maturities as the ability to garner dollars cost-effectively was becoming a problem but on the heels of concerns by the head of the central bank that moving cash in Crimea was difficult, ATM withdrawal limits have been cut. People in long ATM lines are reported to be concerned because "banks are closing" but it is Deutsche Bank's comments this morning that raised many an eyebrow as they suggest that Ukraine's debt is pricing in a "burden-sharing" haircut for bondholders (which as we have seen in the past - in Cyprus - can quickly ripple up the capital structure and become a depositor haircut).

We wonder just what hedonic adjustments the BLS will use to explain away the implied inflation from this 25% increase in Amazon Prime membership fees. Prefunding the cost of friendly drone deliveries (which Tesla may soon desperately need if it wants to sell its cars direct)? We also wonder, just what the impact on Prime membership will be considering the disastrous results that Netflix suffered when it did a comparable price hike a little over two years ago, which it promptly reversed when people started abandoning the service in droves. Just how elastic is Amazon pricing? We are about to find out.

When retail sales last month came in far weaker than expected, it was the weather's fault. A month later, we find that the January retail sales were even weaker than expected, with the headline number revised from a -0.4% drop to -0.6%, the ex autos number revised from unchanged to -0.3%, and the ex autos and gas whose drop more than doubled from -0.2% to -0.5%. Oh well: one can't go back in time and force the algos to soar even more (since everyone knows bad news is great news). So how about February? Well, apparently it warmed up because despite expectations of a 0.2% increase in headline and ex auto and gas retail sales, the actual prints were 0.3% for both, beating by the tiniest of margins, yet net lower when adding the January revision. Of course, what happens in April, when the March data too is revised lower, is irrelevant - all that will matter is the current month numbers all of which recently seem to get an odd "optimism" boost that promptly fades away in no time.

On the heels of last week's surprise beat in jobless claims (amid all the weather turmoil), this week's initial claims beat by the most since November. Down 9,000 to 315,000, this is the best (lowest) claims data in over three-and-a-half months providing the Fed cover to continue Tapering as the number of people of benefits rolls overall dropped 48,000 to 2.86 million (lowest since December). In the big picture the trend of decreasing layoffs has stalled but shows no sign of improvement in the last 6 months.

For a market that is flirting with all time highs on a daily basis, the recent banker and trader suicide epidemic seems oddly out of place. And yet, it continues to claim even more victims, with the latest casuality being Edmund Reilly, 47, a trader at Midtown's Vertical Group, who as the Post reported, jumped in front of an LIRR train station yesterday at 6 am near the Syosset train station and was pronounced dead at the scene.

• China premier warns on economic slowdown as data fans stimulus talk (Reuters)
• Li says China defaults ‘unavoidable’ (FT)
• Russia Said to Ready for Iran-Style Sanctions in Worst Case (BBG)
• Rescue the tapes from the Bank of England’s dustbins  (FT)
• Obama Warns Putin of Cost to Russia for Annexing Ukraine (BBG)
• The TVIX is back: Credit Suisse VIX Note That Ran Amok in 2012 Back on Top (BBG)
• U.S. Risks National Blackout From Small-Scale Attack (WSJ)
• U.S. Investigators Suspect Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours (WSJ)
• Malaysia says no evidence missing plane flew hours after losing contact (Reuters)
• Missed Alarms and 40 Million Stolen Credit Card Numbers: How Target Blew It (BBG)
• Death Toll in NYC Building Blast Rises to Six; Search Continues (BBG)

It was another day of ugly overnight macro data, all of it ouf of China, with industrial production (8.6%, Exp. 9.5%, Last 9.7%), retail sales (11.8%, Exp. 13.5%, Last 13.1%) and fixed asset investment (17.9% YTD vs 19.4% expected) all missing badly and confirming that in a world of deleveraging, the Chinese economy will continue to sputter. Which is precisely what the "bad news is good news" algos needs and why futures levitated overnight: only this time instead of latching on to the USDJPY correlation pair, it was the AUDJPY which surged after Australia - that Chinese economic derivative - posted its third best monthly full-time jobs surge in history! One can be certain that won't last. But for now it has served its purpose and futures are once again green. How much longer will the disconnect between deteriorating global macro conditions and rising global markets continue, nobody knows, but sooner rather than later the central planner punch bowl will be pulled and the moment of price discovery truth will come. It will be a doozy.