Archive - Mar 17, 2014 - Story

The Zagat-style summary, the market is "extremely overvalued", but it will rise on an "increase in the level of profits" and "we expect an 8% rise in the level of earnings this year", even though "we expect many firms will issue negative earnings guidance ahead of 1Q 2014 reporting season that takes place from mid-April to mid-May."

Ok then.

Remember Newsweek's "shocking" inaugural print issue which claimed to have uncovered the creator of Bitcoin (by scouring the phone book), and of course poor Satoshi Dorian Nakamoto's 15 minutes of fame? Guess we can put that to rest. "I did not create, invent or otherwise work on Bitcoin. I unconditionally deny the Newsweek report."

With global equity markets exuberant (from US to Europe to Russia) at the prospect of US sanctions against Russia, we look forward to hearing from Comrade President Obama on why this is a punishment and why it's a bad thing for Russia (and where the next red line is)...

Despite no move in gold, silver, or US Treasuries, US equities (and JPY crosses) remain bid. But perhaps the most intriguing reaction to Obama's escalation is the surge higher in Russian stocks and rally in the Ruble... Putin and his oligarch friends must be pleased...

Despite last month's epic collapse in the NAHB Confidence index, the 'recovery' bounce this month missed expectations significantly making the 6th miss in the last 7 months (we assume that means its been winter-stormy for the last 7 months). Holding at levels seen in May 2013, future sales expectations dropped once again to 10 month lows as hope fades (or they expect more bad weather). The West (crushed by warm dry pleasant weather) continues to plummet but the NorthEast dropped to levekls not seen since Auguest 2012.

As was largely expected, the first retaliation by Obama has arrived, courtesy of a just issued Executive Order by the president, in which he has blocked and frozen "all property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States person" (i.e. assets) of not only the pre-coup Ukraine president Yanukovich and the Crimean leader Aksyonov, including all Russians that operate in the Russian arms industry, but most notably seven Putin aides. Not Putin himself of course - that would be too "escalatory"...

US equity markets are jubilant at the decision by President Obama to apply travel sanctions against numerous Russian citizens and entities (though we - like every other rational investor out there - are confused as to why this would be). The simple reason is a surge in the EUR (repatriation on this move by Obama) which jerked EURJPY dramatically higher and thus - smashed S&P 500 futures up over 12 points (on negligible volume)... Bonds and gold have hardly moved on this decision...

S&P 500 rise to new high recently was a "party for one" as other global indexes did not participate; "there are so many issues with the market that it strains the imagination," writes Sterne Agee technical analyst Carter Worth in note. Nikkei 225 "deteriorating for weeks" has “look and feel of an important topping-out formation” while European stocks at or below February lows. Small cap stocks, including solar, marine shipping, new-era dot.com, and micro-cap biotech stocks "surging with abandon"

Hardly surprising given February's biggest miss in 10 months that March's data would rebound and so it did from an initial -0.3% in Feb, March rose +0.6% (well above +0.2% expectations)  - 2.7% above last year's levels. This 0.6% rise is above even the most exuberant "economists" estimates. Utilities fell 0.2% (as weather warmed up) but what was most notable is the 7.4% surge in motor vehicles (the biggest in at least 6 months) - which are already sitting at record levels of absolute inventories and the highest inventory-to-sales since the financial crisis.

It has not been a good month for Boeing: first one of its 777s disappears in the now infamous Malaysian Airlines MH370 heist, which is increasingly looking as a hijacking commited by the pilots, and yesterday, a Delta Airlines Boeing 757, Flight 2412 from Orlandon to Atlanta, saw an entire panel tear off from its wing forcing the plane to make an emergency landing. At least this time the plane was tracked for the duration of the flight, perhaps because there was nothing that would be considered extraordinary in its cargo manifest, speaking of which, perhaps it is time for Malaysia Airlines to reveal just what was held in flight MH370's cargo hold. The detached panel did not impact the aircraft's ability to fly or land, Delta spokesman Anthony Black said of Flight 2412. "The crew, knowing that, followed procedure by declaring an emergency to air traffic control as they were landing, which gave them priority clearance to land and alerted ground crews." The airline is inspecting the plane to determine why the panel came off.

Since July of last year, the Empire Fed manufacturing index has only beaten expectations once as March data once again fell below consensus (5.61 vs 6.5 est.) - hardly confirming the weakness is weather-driven. The underlying sub-indices were ugly with the most worrisome being the outlook - despite some optimism for capex, the general business conditions 6-months ahead fell by the most since Oct 2011 to its lowest since July 2013 - which once again suggest this weakness is anything but weather-driven. The number of employees fell as inventories rose but the margin-compressing divide between prices paid and prices received is concerning.

A few days ago, copper prices and the Chinese stock market were roiled by speculation that another - the second in a row - Chinese bond default may be imminent, in the shape of Baoding Tianwei Baobian Electric (TBE) a maker of electrical equipment and solar panels, whose bonds and stock were suspended from trading a week ago after reporting massive losses. A few days later, TBE "promised" not to default when its next interest payment is due in July (although how the insolvent company can see that far into the future is just a little confusing). And yet the market shrugged and contrary to its recent idiotic euphoria to surge on even the tiniest of non-horrible news, barely saw a rise. Today we may know the reason: overnight Bloomberg reports that second Chinese corporate bond default may be imminent after the collapse and arrest of the largest shareholder of closely held Chinese real estate developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co, which just happens to be saddled with 3.5 billion yuan ($566.6 million) of debt.

Putin Is No Mad Man to Russians as Power Play Trumps Economy (BBG)
Alibaba picks U.S. for IPO; in talks with six banks for lead roles (Reuters)
Russia hearts selling German energy: Billionaire Fridman’s L1 Buys RWE Unit for $7.1 Billion (Bloomberg)
Malaysia plane search straddles continent as police focus on crew (Reuters)
Saudi Crown Prince’s visit to China set to bolster investment (Al-Awsat)
Bugatti-Driving 26-Year-Old Tied to Penny-Stock Website (BBG)
Vodafone agrees $10 billion deal to buy Spain's Ono (Reuters)
The Hidden Rot in the Jobs Numbers (WSJ)
SocGen Ex-Trader Kerviel Walks to Forget Loss as Judgment Looms (BBG)
U.S. Banks’ $75 Billion Payout at Stake in Fed Tests (BBG)

Here is the latest via Reuters: just hours ago, Crimea's parliament officially applied to become part of Russia. The parliament "made a proposal to the Russian Federation to admit the Republic of Crimea as a new subject with the status of a republic," according to a statement on its website. A Crimean parliamentary delegation was expected to arrive in Moscow on Monday to discuss the procedures required for the Black Sea peninsula to become part of the Russian Federation. "If everything’s signed we’ll become a fully fledged region of the Russian Federation Wednesday or Thursday,” First Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Termigaliyev says in interview at govt headquarters in Simferopol. Termigaliyev added that Crimea will promptly get $1b aid from Russia in near-term, and that Hryvnia reserves enough for 10 days, then Crimea will switch to ruble. April pensions “most likely” to be paid in rubles. Crimea can be self-sufficient in natural gas after today’s nationalization of Chernomoreneftegaz. Crimea risks 150,000 hectares being left without water if Ukraine shuts off supply, though that’s “not critical,”  says Termigaliyev.