Archive - Mar 19, 2014 - Story

"It is clear to us that speculative and Ponzi finance dominate China’s economy at this stage. The question is when and how the system’s current instability resolves itself. The Minsky Moment refers to the moment at which a credit boom driven by speculative and Ponzi borrowers begins to unwind. It is the point at which Ponzi and speculative borrowers are no longer able to roll over their debts or borrow additional capital to make interest payments....  We believe that China finds itself today at exactly this juncture."

Climbing above the poverty line has become more daunting in recent years. NY Times reports that the composition of the nation’s low-wage work force has been transformed by the Great Recession, shifting demographics and other factors.

With the ink still wet on the referendum vote slips and the Duma's agreement to accept Crimea into Mother Russia, the Crimean Mint (since we pre-suppose there is one) has wasted no time in creating the new coinage for the nation. As Crimea transitions quickly to the Russian Ruble, they have created their own "Crimea-styled" currency... perhaps to be named the 'cruble'?

The one problem with every Ponzi scheme is that it must constantly grow, in both demand and supply terms, for the mass delusion to continue. The other problem, of course, is that every Ponzi scheme always comes to an end.... which may have just happened in China where as the chart below shows, as of this moment at least, the supply side to the Chinese housing ponzi (and recall that in China the bubble is not in the stock market like in the US, but in housing) has slammed shut.

Back in 2013 it was Syria where the world was gearing for imminent military action after a relentless series of false flag provocations by the United States (intent on securing a Qatar gas pipeline to Europe) which in the last minute was deftly diffused by Vladimir Putin. In 2014, it was the Ukraine's turn, and after a prolonged campaign orchestrated by Victoria Nuland and the US State Department (again) which succeeded in the now traditional violent coup (see Egypt and Libya), once again saw Putin victorious, after yesterday's annexation of the all important Crimean peninsula, achieved without the firing of one shot. So now that Putin has succeeded in trouncing the US twice in a row, it is time to poke some old, well-known geopolitical wounds, such as Iran. And who better to do it than Israel, where as Haaretz reports, "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon have ordered the army to continue preparing for a possible military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities at a cost of at least 10 billion shekels ($2.89 billion) this year, despite the talks between Iran and the West, according to recent statements by senior military officers."

U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) released the following statement on the need to provide greater support to Ukraine and impose additional costs on Russia in the wake of the Russian government’s annexation of Crimea today... clearly seeking the diplomatic way out...

There is a wider significance to this long-held misapprehension. Namely, that Keynes – so enamoured of his circular flow visualisation of the economy and yet also so prone to the confusion of mere snapshot accounting identities with dynamic and causative  phenomena – also held that banks were simple, passive intermediaries in the system and could therefore safely be shorn of having any true role to play in the determination of financial variables. Having similarly insisted that saving and investment MUST be equal (accounting v causation, again), he was thus left with nothing by which to determine the rate of interest and so opted for his ludicrous ‘liquidity preference’ idea that the rate of interest is a bribe by means of which to discourage the common man’s economy-sapping fetish for hoarding money.  From there, it was but a short step to the vilification of savers as the enemies of public well being and - via the further idiocy of the ‘liquidity trap’ with which this seemed perennially to threaten us - to the evils inherent in the incessantly inflationary ravings of the likes of Paul Krugman and all the other bien pensants of his stripe. 

While Ukraine's leaders have on one side threatened retaliation and will not stand for Russia's annexation of Crimea, they have also suggested that they should be compensated for the loss of the region. However, the latest headlines from Interfax suggest that the Ukraine government has to some degree given up hope...

• *UKRAINE GOVT ADOPTS PLAN TO EVACUATE CITIZENS FROM CRIMEA: IFX
• *UKRAINE TO SETTLE CRIMEAN CITIZENS ELSEWHERE IN COUNTRY: IFX

While no details are known on the timing - or whether this includes the military - it certainly appears like Ukraine has ceded the region to Russia (leaving it tough for western sanctions to achieve anything now).

As we explained in great detail yesterday, the selling in commodities is far from over. The extent of China's commodity-backed-financing is only now beginning to be understood and forced sales (along with the vicious circle of collapsing collateral values and increasingly tightening credit) are hard to stop for a government set of reform. Copper prices were heavy overnight in Asia but this morning has seen futures plunge on heavy volume below $289 - the lowest since July 2009- breaking key support levels. For the same reasoning, zinc and aluminum are under pressure, as is steel rebar and gold.

The FOMC is now meeting for the first time with Janet Yellen as Chair. Goldman's US team expects the FOMC to deliver an accommodative message...alongside a continued tapering of asset purchases. However, they note, their market views here are likely to shift little in response, as much of that dovishness is arguably already priced, particularly in US rates. SocGen notes that "qualitative guidance" will probably consist of two components: the FOMC’s forecast for the fed funds rate (aka “the dots”) providing a baseline scenario, and a descriptive component signalling the elasticity of this rate path to the underlying economic outlook. SocGen also warns that this transition is worrisome for inflation in 2015. But BofA suggests this is not  problem as The Fed will indicate the US economy "lift-off" in late-2015 will save us all.

While it has been public for a long time that i) JPM is eager to sell its physical commodities business and ii) the most likely buyer was little known Swiss-based Mercuria, there was nothing definitive released by JPM. Until moments ago, when Jamie Dimon formally announced that JPM is officially parting ways with the physical commodities business. But while contrary to previous expectations, following the sale JPM will still provide commercial gold vaulting operations around the world, it almost certainly means farewell to Blythe Masters.

Just days before the annexation of Crimea, while promising that they would not instigate actions to antagonize the West, Russia launched a massive unscheduled military drill. Now, with Crimea under their pro-Russian forces control, and despite promises that Putin seeks to go no further than Crimea, the Wall Street Journal reports that Russia will begin unscheduled military aviation exercises in regions bordering Ukraine. The crews will be practicing "actions during airstrikes" on enemy military targets, communications jamming, air defense and attacks by military jets, the spokesman said.

It only makes sense that now that Crimea is officially Russian territory once again, that the Russians would do with it as they see fit. Which they did. Overnight Russian troops and unarmed men stormed Ukraine's naval headquarters in the Crimean port of Sevastopol and raised the Russian flag in what Reuters described as "a tense but peaceful takeover that signals Moscow's intent to neutralize any armed opposition." Russian soldiers, and so-called "self-defense" units of mainly unarmed volunteers who are supporting them across the Black Sea peninsula, moved in early in the morning and quickly took control. But nowhere is the resignation within Ukraine's acting political leadership more evident than in a statement just uttered by potential presidential candidate and former boxer, Vitali Klitschko:

UKRAINE GOVT SHOULD WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM CRIMEA, KLITSCHKO SAYS

More appeasement of Putin: will it result in the annexation of east Ukraine? Surely. The only question is when.

Remember when in what at the time was the ultimate #Ref! moment, in January UPS missed and guided lower due to a, drumroll, surge in business resulting from "an unprecedented level of online shopping that included a surge of last-minute orders." Yes, not only was it the weather's fault the company had a surge in business and shipments, but the company actually missed and guided lower due to this surge? Moments ago it was FedEx' turn to miss Q4 revenues and earnings across the board, and to guide lower due to, what else, the weather.

• How Putin Parried Obama's Overtures on Crimea (WSJ)
• West Readies Tighter Sanctions After Russia Seals Crimea Claim (Bloomberg)
• Putin says U.S. guided by 'the rule of the gun' in foreign policy (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Said to Agree on Commodities Unit Sale to Mercuria (BBG)
• Short Sellers Target Chinese Developers as Rout Deepens (BBG)
• HFT finally under the spotlight: High-Speed Trading Firms Face New U.S. Scrutiny (WSJ)
• Chinese Dollar Bond Investors Demand Higher Yields After Default (BBG)
• According to Joe LaVorgna it's the snow's fault: Deutsche Bank Said to Plan Job Cuts at Investment Bank (BBG)
• Israeli airstrikes kill 1 Syrian soldier, wound 7 (AP)