Archive - Apr 2014 - Story

This system is on the way out. It will reset. Like feudalism before, our system will go the way of the historical dust bin. And future historians will look back (just as we view feudalism) and say “why did they put up with that nonsense…? This reset is nothing to fear. Human beings are incredible creatures who have a long-term track record of growth. We rise. We progress. As Jobs notes, human beings were fundamentally tool creators. We take our situation, however grim or rudimentary, and we make it better.

Two very important cases related to the 4th Amendment protection of cellphone data went before the Supreme Court yesterday. At issue here is whether or not police can search someone’s cellphone upon arrest. As usual, the Obama administration’s Justice Department is arguing against the citizenry, and in favor of the (police) state. Oh yeah, destroy privacy rights for 320 million people because a phone could potentially trigger a bomb. You can’t get much more stupid and pathetic than that argument.

No, the economy is most definitely not "recovering".  Despite what you may hear from the politicians and from the mainstream media (shrugging off today's terrible GDP print), the truth is that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than it was prior to the last recession.  In fact, we are still pretty much where we were at when the last recession finally ended.  When the financial crisis of 2008 struck, it took us down to a much lower level economically.  Thankfully, things have at least stabilized at this much lower level.  For example, the percentage of working age Americans that are employed has stayed remarkably flat for the past four years.  We should be grateful that things have not continued to get even worse.  It is almost as if someone has hit the "pause button" on the U.S. economy.  But things are definitely not getting better, and there are a whole host of signs that this bubble of false stability will soon come to an end and that our economic decline will accelerate once again.  The following are 17 facts to show to anyone that believes that the U.S. economy is just fine...

After widening its tolerance for real world volatility mid-March, the PBOC has faced a daily battering of USD buyers and CNY sellers which have driven the Chinese currency to its weakest level in over 18 months. However, things are starting to become problematic... while call buying and hedging is exploding - as carry traders and local specs rush to cover exposures, Bloomberg notes that Morgan Stanley fears as the yuan approaches the lower end of PBOC’s permissible daily trading range, anticipated intervention to defend band could put other currencies under selling pressure. The last time - Summer 2012 - that the PBOC defended its currency, EUR came under selling pressure but as Morgan Stanley notes, “In the very unlikely case” of PBOC not defending band, FX volatility would surge globally with implications going beyond RMB as markets would assume China’s economic problems might be significant... whocouldanode?

Simply put, there is overwhelming evidence of inflation during the decade long era in which the central bankers have been braying about “deflation”. What is more worrisome, David Stockman presents some startling evidence of the complicity of the government statistical mills in using the inflation that is not seen (i.e. “imputed”) to dilute and obscure the inflation that is seen (i.e. utility bills).

Over the weekend, Germany's Der Spiegel magazine published a report on the funneling of Ukrainian arms to jihadists in Syria via Germany. According to information obtained by Der Spiegel, a Ukrainian state enterprise is delivering rifles to Germany, but the German federal government allegedly doesn’t know what is happening with the weapons. In fact, as Spiegel notes, Berlin “can not dispel the suspicion that these weapons have been passed on to Islamist holy warriors to cause a regime change in Syria." It seems the "news" has spurred reaction from the peace-loving Ukrainian government who, as Interfax reports, staunchly denied any possibility of Germany's re-exporting firearms to Syria this morning.

On the heels of disappointing March data in China for Services and Manufacturing, China's "official" manufacturing PMI saw its lowest 'April' print on record (typically a period of renaissance post-New Year data snafus) missing expectations for the first time in 2014 and just marginally above last month's data (50.4, exp. 50.5, prev. 50.3) China is still in Schrodinger-land with "official' data (biased towards larger SOEs) in very modest expansion and Markit (weighted towards smaller - more realistic - entities) in considerable contraction. That China disappointment follows earlier data which saw Aussie PMI collapsed over 3 points in April to its lowest in 9 months with the deterioration broad-based across the key sub-components. As Goldman notes, production is now at its weakest in a year, employment remains in contraction and, most worryingly, new orders printed their largest contraction in 13 months. This is the 6th month in a row of Aussie manufacturing contraction.

"The greatest irony is that the President is railing against inequality as one of the most important problems of the day, despite the fact that his policies are squeezing the middle class and causing the Fed – with the President’s encouragement – to engage in the radical monetary policy, which is exacerbating inequality. This simple truth cannot be repeated often enough."

This is an impressive, comprehensive analysis of the February 2014 Ukraine coup from the perspective of a senior Russian academic. It details the interests and affiliations of the main Ukrainian domestic players - oligarchical clans many of whose leaders have dual nationality - with some shocking and little known detail. It exposes the glaring hypocrisies and double standards of the western sponsors of the coup and their Russian/Ukrainian '5th Column traitors'. It sees the coup and Russia's successful incorporation of Crimea as major game-changing events in the on-going, US-lead post-WWII machinations of the West to subdue Russia to its own agenda and outlines how Russia should now respond. All-in-all a must-read for westerners needing to understand what is really happening in both the Ukraine and the wider Anglo-US-NATO globalisation drive which it brings into sharp focus

There is nothing fancy about these three solutions. They shift the incentives away from speculation to earned income/productive work, they lower regressive taxes on the middle class and working poor and they do not restrain legitimate enterprise and wealth accumulation. They eliminate complex systems (the Federal Reserve and the tax code) and put money in the hands of tens of millions of households rather then the top .1%. Yes, they are utopian, but only because we keep electing the same bought-and-paid-for Demopublican lapdogs of the super-wealthy and vested interests.

The Fed's QE efforts were - if one is to believe the words spewed from their ever-lying mouths - designed to aid the man on the street, to lower interest rates, and enable another refinancing-led housing boom/bubble which would maintain the status quo and confirm the 'happily-ever-after' dream of every taxpaying (and non-taxpaying American). Today's data from the Mortgage Banker's Association confirms - QE's work is done and the refi boom is over. A 7% plunge on the week has pushed the refinancing activity index to its lowest levels since September 2008 - just before Lehman.

After a long and agonizing winter which was attributed to the so-called “Polar Vortex”, we thought it would be appropriate to highlight for precious metal investors the implications of what we call the “Chinese Gold Vortex”. Over the past year, we have been very vocal about what we consider an aberration: the complete disconnect between gold supply and demand fundamentals and the actual price of the metal.

Update: ye olde CTRL+ALT+DEL trick seems to have done it and the computer "glitch" has been fixed.

The FAA has declared a "ground halt" on all flights at the following airports: BOS, BWI, DCA, EWR, FLL, JFK, LAS, LAX, LGA, MCO, MIA, PHL, TEB

*COMPUTER PROVIDING AIR-TRAFFIC RADAR DISPLAY MALFUNCTIONING

LAX is citing "computer issues" as the reason (and a radar system crash across at least 3 Western states) which could mean delays up to 90 minutes.

"Record corporate cash"..."Record corporate cash"... "Record corporate cash"

That pretty much covers most of the conversation on prime time financial media and TV stations when discussing corporate balance sheets. There is, however, one big problem with that mantra...

After 'billing' Ukraine this morning, Gazprom must be jubilant this evening as news exudes from Washington that...

• *IMF APPROVES UKRAINE LOAN OF $17 BLN OVER TWO YEARS
• *UKRAINE EXPECTS FIRST TRANCHE OF IMF AID MAY 5-MAY 8: FIN MIN

But,

• *IMF SAYS IMMEDIATE UKRAINE LOAN DISBURSEMENT TO BE $3.2 BLN

So that won't even cover the $3.49bn they already owe to Gazprom? (In fact, $2.2bn is approved for dissemination to Gazprom)