Archive - Apr 2014 - Story

The following is a new ad campaign in Britain. As we have warned numerous times - muddle-thruugh has failed; Martin Armstrong notes, the politicians have squandered everything and now they are hunting down capital everywhere and the view is people have to pay whatever they demand or you are just a criminal. Nobody even bothers to look at what they are doing to the world economy. These advertisements are appearing everywhere and they will only succeed in created the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression.

It seems the truce "deal" is well and truly dead...

600 U.S. TROOPS HEADING TO EUROPE FOR EXERCISES: PENTAGON
U.S. AIRBORNE TROOPS GOING TO POLAND, LITHUANIA, LATVIA,ESTONIA
U.S. MILITARY EXERCISES ARE IN RESPONSE TO UKRAINE CRISIS:KIRBY
MORE MILITARY EXERCISES 'COMING THROUGH' NATO: PENTAGON

The question now, of course, is - what will Putin do in response to this action?

For seven years through 2012, the number of Californians aged 50 to 64 who live in their parents' homes swelled 67.6% to about 194,000, according to the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the Insight Center for Community Economic Development. Many more young adults live with their parents than those in their 50s and early 60s live with theirs. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 1.6 million Californians have taken up residence in their childhood bedrooms, according to the data. Though that's a 33% jump from 2006, the pace is half that of the 50 to 64 age group.

While the auction overall was not fireworky just yet, a few more "dots" fiascoes and suddenly the short end of the curve is going to get a whole lot more interesting. And should European idiot asset managers, once they have taken the Spanish 10 Year to 0%, decide to bid up US paper, and inverted the 2s10s, well that is the time to quiet get out of dodge.

The proud recipient of today's $250,000 invoice for propaganda rendered by Ben Bernanke will be the Economic Club of Canada...

BERNANKE: FED ACTIONS DIDN'T FAVOR WALL STREET OVER MAIN STREET
Bernanke Says US Economy Is Heading Towards Complete Recovery

Just don't tell Obama (or the Democrats who have been told not to mention the 'recovery'), or the record number of middle-aged people living with their parents, or the almost imperceptible rise in the employed population since QE began...

Ukraine's Acting President Turchynov appears to be calling for an official break in the "truce" deal...

• *UKRAINE'S TURCHYNOV URGES RESTART OF ANTI-TERRORIST OPERATION
• *TURCHYNOV SAYS 'TERRORISTS' HOLDING EAST UKRAINE REGION HOSTAGE
• *TURCHYNOV SAYS EAST UKRAINE SEPARATISTS SUPPORTED BY RUSSIA

So much for Joe Biden's peace-keeping salvation mission to Kiev...

It would seem a red-line or two have been crossed:

*UKRAINE MILITARY  PLANE HIT BY GUNFIRE FROM REBEL TOWN: AFP

This comes on the heels of elevated tensions in the last few days since the "deal" and Biden's arrival in Kiev. Last week saw 'unidentified' fighter jets open fire on the Pro-Russian-held Kramatorsk airfield.  The plane, a propellor-driven Antonov An-30, safely made an emergency landing

Pre-crisis levels of confidence... never before seen bond yields... stocks surging back toward record highs... just don't tell the record number of unemployed Europeans...

Gold is down 6 days in a row and has broken back down to its lowest since mid-February (under its 200DMA once again). The reason... aside from growth stocks are rallying which must mean the economy is fixed and therefore no need for the world's central banks to print any more money (oh wait apart from the BoJ and ECB)... is unclear... though we suspect the driver is to do with the following crucial chart...

In February, we highlighted the fact that subprime loans were about to make a return: Subprime Mortgages are Back…This Time Marketed as “Second Chance Purchase Programs.” In that article, we posited that with the “all cash” private equity shops and hedge funds no longer able to make good returns through buying new homes to rent, these investors would need some sucker to sell to in order to realize a return (Blackstone’s purchases have plunged 70% recently). That sucker, as always, will be the retail muppets, and those muppets will be lured in through subprime. This is now starting to happen in earnest. "We're sorry, but on what sort of bizarro crackhead planet is putting 3% down toward an asset mean you are “buying it.” ... The Truman Show rolls on..."

Yesterday we noted the dramatic squeeze of the "most shorted" stocks as they outperformed the broad market five-fold. The rout continues to gather pace as this morning sees the "most shorted" index soaring back near last week's highs and up almost 8% from Wednesday's lows.

Another month, another drop in existing home sales, which in March declined once again from 4.60MM units to 4.59MM. While the good news was that this number did beat the consensus estimate of 4.56MM (based on a a range of 4.50MM to 4.85MM from 75 economist surveyed), the bad news was that once again, a near majority of the upside was once again due to investors and other all-cash buyers, who accounted for 50% of all sales. That and that like last time, of course, this was the worst existing home sales number since July 2012.

After 2 dismal missing months in a row, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rebounded dead-cat-bouncedly with its biggest MoM rise since August. The bulk of the gains were a huge swing in New Orders (from -9 to +10) but average workweek was stagnant and wages dropped to their lowest in 12 months. Sadly, for those extrapolating this surge to 'escape velocity' growth any minute now, the Richmond Fed's six-month forward outlook saw shipments, new orders, employees, wages, and capex all drop...

Presented with no comment...

The morning opened with stocks decoupled from FX carry - despite some random Nikkei headlines to juice JPY - and S&P futures pinned to 5Y yields (as the correlated pair of choice for now). S&P and Dow have rallied back into positive territory for April - so Mission Accomplished for now...