Archive - May 9, 2014 - Story

Remember all of those credit card and loan offers you used to receive in the mail? Bad credit? No credit? No problem.  0% APR for the first six months. Free balance transfers. No money down. And my personal favorite– no credit check. These were all classic signs that the mother of all liquidity bubbles was upon us. Looking at the expansion of credit across the West, though, it’s happening again. Fool me twice, shame on me. But this is a worldwide phenomenon now.

A day after Russia shocked the world with an impressive demonstration of military preparation for what it dubbed was a "massive nuclear attack", the country is celebrating its traditional May 9 national holiday which marks the Soviety victory over Nazis in World War II. Among the people watching the traditional and impressive military demonstration on Red Square was Russian president Vladimir Putin. However it is not Putin's presence as the rally that was notably, but what he did after, when hours after the he watched the tanks rumble on Red Square Putin flew to Crimea for the first time to oversee Russia's newest territorial expansion. This happened even as both Ukraine, Germany and the head of NATO all voiced strong objections to such a visit by Putin which not only formalizes the expansion, but spits in the eye of Western attempts to contain the Ukraine conflict and/or de-escalate

Goldman, it would appear, are desperate to not be forced to admit they are wrong once again. On the heels of their dramatic and humiliating swing from expectations of a +3.0% Q1 GDP growth rate at the start of the year to a current -0.6% expectation, the hockey-stick-believers are out with their latest piece of guesswork explaining how growth will explode to 3.9% in Q2 (a full percentage point higher than their previous estimate).The platform for this v-shaped recovery - "consumer spending will probably grow strongly, while the housing market should gradually improve." So 'probably' and 'should' it is then.

For those who believe they can predict the Apple's acquisitive future based on the company's historical M&A pattern, here is a summary of the company's acquisition history over the last two decades.

• Omnicom, Publicis call off proposed $35 billion merger (Reuters)
• Apple in talks for $3.2bn Beats deal (FT)
• Alibaba IPO Grew Out of ’80s Chaos and Guy From Goldman (BBG)
• Nigeria's president at WEF pledges to free kidnapped girls (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Joins Wells Fargo in Rolling Out Jumbo Offerings (BBG)
• It's 1999 all over again: Young Bankers Fed Up With 90-Hour Weeks Move to Startups (BBG)
• ECB stimulus talk knocks euro, peripheral yields (Reuters)
• Deutsche Bank Currency Crown Lost to Citigroup on Volatility (BBG)
• London Taxis Plan 10,000-Car Protest Against Uber App Use (BBG)
• Pfizer Holders Could Face Tax Hit in a Deal for AstraZeneca (WSJ)

It has been a very quiet session so far, and despite the slow-mo levitation in the USDJPY, its impact on US equity futures has been minimal if not negative. In fact, following yesterday's latest late day tumble, which Goldman summarized as follows, "Equities tried and failed again to break 1885, it continues to be the level that we can’t escape"... it would appear we are increasingly changing the trading regime, and as Guy Haselmann explained simply, markets are slowly but surely coming to the realization that the Fed's crutches are being taken away (that they may well return following a 20%, 30%, or more drop in the S&P is a different matter entirely) and that the economy will not grow fast enough to make up for this. Perhaps the most notable "event" is the sheer avalanche of banks pushing up their forecasts for an ECB rate cut (and or QE start) to June following Draghi's yesterday comments. And so the 1 month countdown begins until the end of forward guidance, or until the ECB "shatters" its credibility as expained yesteday.