Archive - May 2014 - Story

We may have dubbed Russia's historic, and 30 years in the making until John Kerry et al accelerated it, gas deal as the "Holy Grail" of New Normal trade arrangements, and it turns out we weren't alone in evaluating the strategic implications of this epic Russian, and Chinese, pivot toward each other. Moments ago, Russian billionaire Gennady Timchenko, shareholder of Gazprom competitor Novatek, chairman of the Russian-Chinese Business Council, and former co-owner of commodities trading giant Gunvor, said that "Economically it’s the most important event of the past decade."

Having dropped to 297k last week (the first time below 300k since April 2006) as 'full' employment appears to have been reached but the 326k print this week (against expectations of 310k) was the biggest jump week-over-week since December 5th 2013. This level of initial claims is exactly in line with the average for 2014 so far at around 325k. Of course the market is not worried - as opposed to the manic buying panic last week when claims plunged, stocks shrugged off this big rise... What is perhaps more worrying for the silver-lining hunters is that this considerably disappointing print falls in the same week as the non-farm payrolls survey period (though bad news will of course be good news should that disappoint).

Update 2: Thailand's military suspends the 2007 constitution and dismisses the caretaker government.

Update: The Thai army has announced a nationwide curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. after declaring a military takeover of the government to restore order.

Two days ago, when reporting on the Thailand "non-coupy" martial law imposed by the army, which wasn't in charge, but really was or something, we summarized the situation as follows: THAI MILITARY CHANNEL 5 SAYS MARTIAL LAW `NOT A COUP'. "Ah, gotta love the New Normal: full of non-coupy martial laws." Moments ago, the New Normal regressed back to its Old Normal ways, when in a live statement on TV, the Thai army chief made the non-coupy coup coupy, and announced a military takeover of the government Thursday, saying the coup was necessary to restore stability and order after six months of political deadlock and turmoil.

• McDonald’s Workers Arrested at Protest Near Headquarters (BBG)
• U.S. Sends Troops to Chad to Hunt for Abducted Nigeria Girls (BBG)
• BofA Scrapping Market-Making Unit Amid Trading Scrutiny (BBG)
• Biggest attack in years kills 31 in China's troubled Xinjiang (Reuters)
• Intense Fighting Flares in Eastern Ukraine (WSJ)
• Fed Officials Tussle Over Labor Market Slack (Hilsenrath)
• Ikea Economics Lure Central Bankers Seeking New Tools (BBG)
• When Putin ordered up new hospitals, his associates botched the operation (Reuters)
• Norway’s $33 Billion Man Steps Up Search in Asia Real Estate Bet (BBG)

The key news overnight were global manufacturing PMIs which can be summarized as follows: Japan contraction; China contraction, but less than expected (as reported before); and most recently, Europe which expanded but dropped and missed, at 52.5, down from 53.4 and below the consensus estimate of 53.2. The weakness was fully driven by France which has moved back into a contraction phase in both manufacturing and services, which were 49.3 and 49.2, down from 51.2 and 50.4, respectively (although with the recent surge in train station remodelling, the mfg aspect may soon be boosted). The market soaked up the Chinese numbers with fervor, sending the algo-controlled USDJPY into a buying frenzy which in turn pushed up US equity futures, only to see a gradual fade of the Chinese euphoria when the European data hit.

Last week we commented that based on TIC data, while "Belgium's" unprecedented Treasury buying spree continues, one country has been dumping US bonds at an unprecedented rate, and in March alone Russia sold a record $26 billion, or 20% of its holdings. So as Russia is selling a record amount of US paper, what is it buying? For the answer we go to Goldcore which tells us that "Russia Buys 900,000 Ounces Of Gold Worth $1.17 Billion In April."

It appears yet again that China's "strike first" anti-terrorism policy has failed as explosions have rocked Urumqi, the capital city of China's unrest-plagued Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous region, killing (and injuring) multiple (but unknown) people. Social media suggests 2 SUVs entered the crowded market in the center of the city ploughing down onlookers, throwing explosives from the cars, before a blast was heard. One witness noted that the cars were painted with "uighur" language slogans. Flames and heavy smoke were seen nearby, police are on the scene and the 2 SUVs are being removed. There is no official death or injury count as of yet.

If you believe that the U.S. economy is heading in the right direction, you really need to read this article. As we look toward the second half of 2014, there are economic red flags all over the place.

China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI has now spent 3 years within 2 points of the crucial '50' demarcation between contraction and expansion but as the following chart shows, something seems 'odd' about the last few months apparent stability. Tonight China HSBC PMI printed a stunning 49.7 crushing the expectation of 48.3 (modestly above last month's 48.1) but still in contraction for the 5th month in a row (the longest contraction since Oct 2012). This was China's biggest spike in PMI in 9 months led by increases in new orders, production, and new export orders... but employment fell to new lows. Japan's Markit PMI also printed in 'contraction' territory for the 2nd month in a row - its first since Abenomics began.

"They are without a doubt the worst organization I have ever dealt with. Keep suing them America! They deserve it!!" is the way one Bank of America client described the bank and the current actions that many of the mortgage banking business are undertaking will not improve the situation. As Reuters reports, many of the 20 million homeowners in America are being held hostage on their mortgage modification process by an extra clause being added to the docs: they could not say or print or post anything negative about the provider, ever. These "gag orders" are becoming more frequent and Consumer law defenders are concerned, ""If your servicer screws up, you can't say anything about it... the homeowner has no defense."

"I hope there are people who love the feature and post more," says Facebook's product manager excitedly about the new feature they just added. We suspect people will not... As The WSJ reports, starting Wednesday, the app has the ability to recognize music and television shows playing in the vicinity of users. Read that again... 'in the vicinity of users'. In other words, Facebook is unveiling its own NSA-style eavesdropping feature (on you and all your friends). Don't worry though... even if users decide not to share what they’re hearing or watching, Facebook will hold onto the data in anonymous form, keeping tabs on how many users watched particular shows. Sound familiar?

Russia’s seizure of Crimea has led to speculation that a major motivating factor was to acquire potentially vast energy resources in the Black and Azov Seas. But taking control of territory rich in oil and gas is different from being able to successfully pull those energy resources from the ground.

Princeton University paid four of its endowment managers a combined $9.2 million in 2013. As Bloomberg reports, this is a 46% increase from a year earlier and four times the increase Harvard University paid its top investors. We are sure they earned it - besides, last year was a difficult year for every asset manager eh (even as the endowment gained only 11.7% last year - average for large endowments? But as one apologist noted "It's easy to whack these guys," - yes it is! But while "it looks big in percentage terms, it’s a basis point or two compared to the endowment," - oh well that makes it ok then. Once again, it pays to be in the 'elite'.

On the surface, the economic atmosphere of the U.S. has appeared rather calm and uneventful. Stocks are up, employment isn’t great but jobs aren’t collapsing into the void (at least not openly), and the U.S. dollar seems to be going strong. Peel away the thin veneer, however, and a different financial horror show is revealed.  With the Ukraine crisis now escalating to fever pitch, BRIC nations are openly discussing the probability of “de-dollarization” in international summits, and the ultimate dumping of the dollar as the world reserve currency. The U.S. is in desperate need of a benefactor to purchase its ever rising debt and keep the system running. Strangely, a buyer with apparently bottomless pockets has arrived to pick up the slack that the Fed and the BRICS are leaving behind. But, who is this buyer? At first glance, it appears to be the tiny nation of Belgium. Clearly, this is impossible, and someone, somewhere, is using Belgium as a proxy in order to prop up the U.S. But who?

Instead of "defective", GM suggests its employees use the phrase "does not perform to design" according to just released documents in the GM recall probe. However, the internal presentation provides a glimpse into the internal thinking at GM as it suggests the following 69 words should not be used in a company memo... including "Hindenburg", "spontaneous combustion", and "Kevorkianesque."