Archive - May 2014 - Story

The days of Bernanke's "non-Giffen good" speech circuit may come to an end far sooner than the ex-Chairsatan wishes: "UBS and Goldman Sachs considered his fees too high." Others were quick to point out the obvious:"You can spend $250,000 for Bernanke’s time at a private dinner, or you could just sit down and read what people like Janet Yellen and Mark Carney have to say," David Rosenberg said"... Indeed, this is one deflation which we are confident the Fed Chairman wishes he was 100% certain he could stop in 15 minutes. Sadly, like in the case of everything else relating to Bernanke, when paying for smoke and mirrors it is only a matter of time before everyone, even the uber-richer poseurs, realize that the product they are buying is nothing but a cheap commodity.

As CNN's Annalyn Kurtz notes, there are "huge cheers for Yellen at NYU Commencement, Yankee Stadium." It would appears the NYU class of 2014 is confused as to why collectively they are the most indebted in history.

There was some trepidation yesterday when after the first day of Putin's visit to China the two countries did not announce the completion of the long-awaited "holy grail" gas dead, and fears that it may get scuttled over price negotiations. It wasn't: moments ago Russia's Gazprom and China's CNPC announced, that after a decade of negotiations, the two nations signed a 30 year gas contract amounting to around $400 billion. And with the west doing all it can to alienate Russia and to force it into China's embrace, this is merely the beginning of what will be a far closer commercial (and political) relationship between China and Russia.

Following the ongoing uncovering of increasing issues at the Department of Veterans Affairs - after reports surfaced a month ago detailing patients dying while waiting for treatment in a Phoenix VA facility - it appears its time for the teleprompter-in-chief to smooth things over, start a probe, and put everyone straight on who is to blame for the disgusting treatment of US veterans... Perhaps - as we noted here - it is worth remember the 'full price' of war.

As Vladimir Putin proudly comments on pulling back troops ahead of this weekend's elections in Ukraine, it appears he is massing an increasingly number of airplanes.. and Ukraine is not happy, as the Foreign Ministry urged Russia to cancel the Aviadarts 2014 international competition (Russia's "Top Gun"), calling it a military drill. The commander of the Russian air force was direct, blasting Ukraine to stop "poking nose" into Russia's affairs.

In a greatly ironic moment for capital markets, minutes ahead of the Fed's Bill Dudley speaking about "low volatility in markets is a cause for concerns, indicates complacency," VIX just collapsed in a pile of "we don't need no stinking protection" volatility selling to its lowest level since December 2013 and almost its lowest since April 2013 recovery lows.

With everyone focusing on the "Holy Grail" deal between Russia and China, and debating who got the upper hand in the 30 year price delivery arrangement, a just as notable story is that quietly overnight Goldman's China team just took China to the cleaners. In a flurry of reports covering everything from Chinese banks to property developers to the Chinese, Goldman effectively mirrored what Hugh Hendry said several years ago when he correctly concluded that China is drowning in overcapacity, and concluded that a "two year property downcycle is imminent."

One of Portugal's biggest companies - Espirito Santo International SA - is in a "serious financial condition" according to a central bank driven external audit by KPMG identified "irregularities in its accounts." Rather stunningly, the details are nothing short of ponzi-like as WSJ reported in December that Espírito Santo International was highly leveraged and had been relying heavily on selling debt to an investment fund held by the financial group (i.e. funding debt issuance in one entity with another) and overvaluing hard-to-value assets (ring any bells?). However, the 'ponzi-like' maneuver, as WSJ concludes shows that while legal and in line with regulatory rules, highlights how corporations, including banks, used financial gymnastics to survive the region's financial crisis. Given the massive domestic bank demand for sovereign paper, one has to wonder if the sudden 60bps spike in Portuguese bond risk is a signal that all is not well in the European periphery.

Just as we saw yesterday, a pre-open buying panic in stocks has been triggered by a selling scramble in JPY against the USD (which ramped the pair to the crucial 200DMA). Treasury yields are following suit (10Y bounced off 2.50%) and pushing higher (30Y above yesterday's high yields). The USD is well bid (on EUR weakness) and precious metals are modestly lower. Copper is under pressure. Just remember how yesterday's pre-open run-stop ended...

A week ago it was funny. Now it is just sad.

Western companies have buybacks that only reward shareholders here and now; the East actually spends capex to invest into the future. Case in point: today's "holy grail" gas deal announcement, which in addition to generation hundreds of billions in externalities for both countries over the next three decades will result in an immediate and accretive boost to GDP, to the tune of $55 billion for Russia and $20 billion for Beijing.

• Eric Holder proves he is no US banker puppet by smashing another foreign bank: BNP Falls as U.S. Probe Said to Cost More Than $5 Billion (BBG)
• Fuld Was Top CEO When Fed Last Raised as New Neutral Era Beckons (BBG)
• Tymoshenko loses her magic in Ukraine presidential race (Reuters)
• GOP Sees Primaries Taming the Tea Party (WSJ)
• Heard that one before: Russian troops preparing to leave Ukraine border area (Reuters)
• Vietnam riots land another blow on the global supply chain (FT)
• Heard that one before too: Bank of England minutes show some members closer to voting for rate rise (Reuters)
• BOJ Refrains From Easing With Signs Japan Weathering Tax Rise (BBG)
• Miner Freeport Pressured by Water Costs as Copper Prices Slide (WSJ)
• Talks to end Thai crisis inconclusive, new round called (Reuters)
• Japan Court Blocks Reactor Restarts (WSJ)

Another right of perfectly round number supports: while the Shanghai Composite once again dipped below 2000 overnight to as low as 1991 only to close modestly higher, and the Nikkei followed suit, also sliding below the psychological support level of 14,000 to an intraday low of 13,964 only to close just above 14,000 if in the red, it was the USDJPY that has suffered the most technical pain when shortly after 2:30 am eastern time, the USDJPY dropped by nearly 40 pips, hours after the BOJ indicated that not only is it happy with where in the QE process it stands, but hinted there may well be no more QE, and certainly nothing imminent . In the process, the USDJPY fully smashed the 200 DMA, with the next key parallel support being the 200DMA in the EURJPY at 138.08 (which was at 138.34 last). When that too gives way, it is a straight line to double digits in the USDJPY, and the countdown to the end of the Abe regime begins in earnest.

Just one day after the FBI issues arrest warrants for 5 Chinese military officials, Caixin reports that Fang Fang - the former CEO of JPMorgan Asia - has been arrested in Hong Kong by the Independent Commission Against Corruption (or anti-graft agency). Coincidental timing we are sure; and while details are sparse, the arrest appears linked to the hiring of the children of Chinese officials. Bloomberg reports that Fang declined to comment after being released on bail (under restrictions not to leave Hong Kong).

Given that zero economists surveyed expected any further QQE in this May BoJ statement, the market's positive knee-jerk reaction to the "unchanged" nature is odd:

*BOJ RETAINS PLAN FOR 60T-70T YEN ANNUAL RISE IN MONETARY BASE (coz it's working so well)
*BOJ SEES DECLINE IN DEMAND AFTER SALES TAX HIKE (whocouldanode?)
*BOJ SAYS EASING IS HAVING INTENDED IMPACT ON ECONOMY (crushing consumer through increasingly expensive import costs?)

The excitement must be based on them saying that "exports have leveled off more or less" and the economy is "recovering moderately." One can't help but feel like this run-stop pop will be faded very quickly... as hope is pushed to July for moar QQE.