Archive - May 2014 - Story

After little more than a year of legitimate revaluation of equities following the 2007-2009 credit crisis, and more than three years of what will likely turn out to be wholly impermanent – if dazzling – Fed-induced speculation, investors have again pushed the stone to the top of the mountain. Despite the devastating losses of half the market’s value in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, investors experience no fear – no suffering as a result of present market extremes. There is no suffering because at every step, as Camus might have observed, “the hope of succeeding” upholds them. As we discussed several months ago, that hope of succeeding rests on what economist J.K. Galbraith called “the extreme brevity of the financial memory.” Part of that brevity rests on ignoring the forest for the trees, and failing to consider movements further up the mountain in the context of how far the stone typically falls once it gets loose. The charts below display various journeys of Sisyphus - a chronicle of multi-year, increasingly speculative market advances that terminated in the same set of conditions that we presently observe.

Ironically, the Fed does have a point: rates do impact existing home sales. The only problem is that according to actual, historical data, not some Fed model projection based on ridiculous assumptions, they impact it exactly in the opposite way of what the Fed proposes!

At $250,000 per speech, this better be worth it...

• *BERNANKE SAYS QE WASN'T A PANACEA BUT `AVOIDED DEFLATION'
• *BERNANKE SAYS EQUITIES HAVE RISEN BECAUSE ECONOMY IS STRONGER
• *BERNANKE SAYS FED BALANCE SHEET COULD BE KEPT LARGE IF NEEDED

It appears not...

Fed's Williams and Fisher are talking this morning in an oddly frank (and concerning) manner...

WILLIAMS SAYS 'SOFT LANDINGS' IN MONETARY POLICY NEVER HAPPEN
WILLIAMS: FED NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE WARY OF EXCESSIVE RISK
Williams says our extraordinary policies could have adverse consequences down the road
Fisher must be wary of markets potential to overshoot

So, we have had Tarullo (Feb) and Yellen (May) warning of bubbles in small caps and credit and now Williams and Fisher sounding some alarms... Don't fight the Fed! (unless the Fed says 'sell') It seems the market is heeding the message in the short-term...

China's or the UK's?

While we wait (in vain) for the US to lob sanctions at China for doing what Russia has done and amass a military presence on its border with Vietnam, here is what China had to say about the earlier announcement by the DOJ charging China with espionage and "penetrating" US companies (if having nothing to add regarding the NSA). From the wires:

• CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS CHARGES HARM RELATIONS WITH U.S.
• CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY ‘STRONGLY REFUTES’ U.S. CHARGES
• CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS U.S. MADE UP FACTS IN SPYING CASE
• CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY URGES U.S. TO `CORRECT ITS MISTAKES'
• CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY CALLS CHARGES `BASELESS,' `RIDICULOUS'

Because if there was anything China needed in the week in which it is finalizing its "holy grail" gas deal with Russia, is more anatagonism from the Obama administration. And now watch as Cisco guides to a far lower sales number for Q2 on what John Chmabers can only describe as a sudden "air pocket" in Chinese demand for its routers.

Funny how, in the current national rapture of techno-narcissism, it is harder than ever to do something that for generations used to be as simple as pie: to get somebody on the telephone. To some degree, this situation represents the sheer diminishing returns and unintended consequences of technology. In a nation infatuated with technology, these entropic effects are always ignored. We just don’t want to hear about it, and our related infatuation with feel-good public relations bullshit spews a fog of concealment over it. It ought to be self-evident that this could only happen in a profoundly corrupt, dishonest, and degenerate society, because it took the form of a social compact that accepted this sort of behavior as okay.

Confirming yet again that the global "recovery" benefits some (very few) more than others (the non-very few), is the latest news out of the UK where the Sunday Times reports that the 1000 richest Britons now hold a cumulative £519 billion in wealth: a number which increased by 15% in the past year as the real disposable incomes of the non-richest declined. Putting this number in context, the "most well-off Britons now own the equivalent of a third of the country's gross domestic product (GDP)." Another way of looking at it: the wealth of 1000 Britons is 3.5x greater than the GDP of Greece.

In the first case of its kind, US Attorney General Eric Holder has broght charges against five Chinese military officals on charges of economic espionage and other offenses related to computer hacking of US nuclear power, metals, and power industries:

• *FIVE CHINESE MILITARY OFFICERS CHARGED BY U.S. WITH ESPIONAGE
• *JUSTICE DEPARTMENT SAYS CHINA HACKERS PENETRATE U.S. COMPANIES
• *DOJ SAYS ESPIONAGE TARGETED WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC, U.S. STEEL, ALCOA, SOLARWORLD

Holder added that the "range of trade secrets and other senstivive business information stolen in this case is significant and demands an aggressive response."

What are they so excited about? Bonds ain't buying it? JPY ain't buying it? It's not Tuesday... or maybe the machines smelled some stops that needed bleeding avove overnight highs...

The New York Times' ousted top editor Jill Abramson will have a chance on Monday to address the unusually scathing criticisms of her management style leveled by publisher Arthur Sulzberger Jr. when she makes her first public remarks since she was fired. But, as Reuters notes, it is unclear whether Abramson, who was the first woman to lead the Times newsroom, will mention the controversy over her firing when she delivers a commencement speech to students graduating from Wake Forest University in North Carolina.

It was only in March when the Fed revealed its latest downward revision to 2014 GDP growth, when it announced (in the same report as the infamous "dots") that its GDP forecast "central tendency" was reduced from 2.8-3.2% to 2.8-3.0%. This was when the world was still expecting a Q1 GDP somewhere around 1.5%-2.0% (when the full severity of snow in the winter wasn't yet apparent), instead of the current consensus forecast around -0.6%. Which, when combined with the current Q2 GDP tracking forecast somewhere around 3.5%, means that for the Fed's projection to be accurate, second half growth will have to average between 4.2% and 4.6%! Said otherwise, at its June 18 meeting expect the Fed - whose forecasting record is absolutely abysmal - to "significantly" lower its GDP forecast. Because what bonds really needed was another buying catalyst...

"They" said it could not happen... the bond market's "most hated" bull move has now accelerated 10Y yields back below 2.5% once again... gold and silver are also bid this morning.

It seems David Tepper's "frigging" "dangerous" market is hitting home as asset managers have greatly rotated their portfolios to hold the most cash in 2 years. Of course, as BAML is quick to point out - this is great "wall of worry" climbing news, "it’s people taking money off the table and playing defensive. There is some inherent buying power." We have now seen almost 6 months of institutional selling and retail investor buying and Bloomberg does a great job rounding up the best market mantras for why it's different this time, and everything is fine... remember "Today’s bearish investors are tomorrow’s bulls."