Archive - Jun 10, 2014 - Story

The biggest news in the sage surrounding Chinese evaporated collateral troubles at Qingdao, which as noted is merely the 3rd largest Chinese port, is that this scandal has now spread to a second Chinese port: Penglai, which is also located in the Shandong province. Putting some size numbers for context: Qingdao's copper inventory is about 50,000 tons, compared to 800,000 tons in Shanghai, analysts say. There's "little evidence" for now that traders in Shanghai fraudulently have pledged collateral to banks, said Sijin Cheng, an analyst with Barclays Research in Singapore. Little evidence will become "lots" in the coming days when we expect more "discoveries" at all other bonded warehouses as the relentless inflow of commodities finally reverses and the beneficiaries finally demand possession. As everyone who has followed even the simplest Ponzi schemes knows, this is the part of the lifecycle when many tears are shed by most.

It seems President Obama's "pullback" is not going as planned in Afghanistan. NBC News reports 5 U.S. soldiers killed in Afghanistan may have been the victims of a friendly-fire incident. American and Afghan troops were conducting security sweeps on polling sites ahead of this weekend's run-off for the Afghan presidential election when they came under attack from Taliban forces. The Americans called in an airstrike amid fierce fighting and, according to U.S. officials, the B-1 Stealth Bomber strike somehow went terribly awry.

When David Tepper speaks, markets (especially those short) quake as the sheep blindly follow him into the breach; so when he said he "was nervous" recently, bulls got scared (briefly). As PageSix reports this morning, Tepper is nervous once again as the world's highest paid fund manager has split with his wife of nearly 30 years. The split could well be the most expensive hedge fund divorce ever and we suspect comments such as this did not help... "What do you think I should do with it? . . . I could buy an island. I could buy a private jet . . . I could get myself a 22-year-old!"

"Step 4: Repeat Step 1-Step 3 as many times as possible, during the period of LC (usually 6 months, with range of 3-12 months). This could be 10-30 times over the course of the 6 month LC, with the limitation being the amount of time it takes to clear the paperwork. In this way, the total notional LCs issued over a particular tonne of bonded or inbound copper over the course of a year would be 10-30 times the value of the physical copper involved, depending on the LC duration."

Oops.

While we have become conditioned to accepting the morning meltdown in gold and silver prices that occurs with all too frequent visible-handedness around 8amET, this morning's mini melt-up is odd for 2 reasons: 1) It's Tuesday, which means sell everything that's not stocks; and 2) as we explained here and here, the unwind of the China CFDs could well lead to a notably higher gold (and silver) price as the forward hedges are lifted.

• Ukraine, Russia Fail to Reach Deal in Natural-Gas Talks (WSJ)
• Boko Haram Kidnaps More Girls in Nigeria (WSJ)
• Déjà vu: echoes of pre-crisis world mount (FT)
• Money market rates hit new low as ECB moves gain traction (Reuters)
• 'Dark Pools' Face New SEC Probe (WSJ)
• Buffett Ready to Double $15 Billion Solar, Wind Bet (BBG)
• White House-Congress rift over Bergdahl deal deepens (Reuters)
• Taxpayers Face Big Medicare Tab for Unusual Doctor Billings (WSJ)
• Lean Retirement Faces U.S. Generation X as Wealth Trails (BBG)
• Employers’ skills gap claim does not show up in US wage data (FT)
• He is holding out for the Zuckerberg overbid: Donald Sterling says LA Clippers not for sale (WSJ)

The tidal patterns of this market have become so well-known to even the least observant: push the USDJPY (or other JPY carry pairs) higher starting around 6am Eastern, then ramp it just before US open to launch cross-asset momentum ignition algos in FX which then carry over to spoos and the broader "market." In the meantime, overnight selling of USDJPY allows a reset before ensuing buying during the US daytime session. Rinse. Repeat. Sure enough, just after 6 pm Eastern, the same USDJPY which catalyzed yet another all time high close had been sold off, leading to a 0.85% drop in the Nikkei and US equity futures which are showing an unprecedented ungreen color. Don't worry though: the pattern is too well-known and practiced by now, and we fully expect USDJPY levitation to pick up shortly, which is the only signal ES-algos need, trampling over any kind of newsflow both good and bad, and leading to yet another all time record high which it goes without saying is completely detached from any underlying reality at this point and at any time over the past 5 years.