Archive - Jun 6, 2014 - Story

There was good news in today's NFP report: at 138,463K jobs reported by the establishment survey, the US economy has finally not only recovered the prior cyclical high of 138,365K, but surpassed it by 98K. Congratulations. And now the bad news. As the next chart shows, that virtually every job gaines since the trough of the depression has been matched by at least one person dropping out of the labor force. In fact, since December 2007, the total number of jobs is virtually unchanged, while the number of people not in the labor force has increased by an unprecedented 12.8 million from 79.2 million to a record 92 million. Recovery?

With today being a non-POMO day (more a YOYO - you're on your own), we suspect the spike in stocks following what was by all counts a mediocre jobs print will not last (until that is it has banged 1950 in cash and taken Goldman's targets out). Bond yields spiked and are now 2bps lower... bad news is good news, good news is good news, and mediocre news is good news... welcome to the new normal...

In a report that was a complete snoozer, largely as many had expected, in May the US Economy is said to have added 217K seasonally adjusted jobs, virtually in line with the 215K expected, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%. According to the household survey the number of jobs added was 145K, not a huge deviation from the Establishment survey.

The number of people not in the labor force declined by a tiny 9K to 92.009 million, also virtually unchanged.

Perhaps the "best" news is that at 138,463 people employed, we have now surpassed the January 2008 prior cycle highs. It only took 6 years.

Copper prices accelerated lower overnight and are sitting at 5 week lows following rapidly growing fears that the commodity warehousing probe will uncover exactly what we have been warning about for months - there is no 'there', there. As we explained in great detail here and here, the discrepancy of reportedly 80,000 tonns of aluminum and 20,000 tonnes of copper is sparking wholesale liquidations as carry traders, lenders, and borrowers all scramble to find out if their promised commodity is there. Iron ore, which has seen its price tumble dramatically, is also on the watch list as the port had said it was investigating whether iron ore warehouse receipts were fraudulently used multiple times to raise finance by different banks.

• HSBC 175K
• Goldman Sachs 175K
• Citigroup 185K
• JP Morgan 200K
• Deutsche Bank 200K
• Bank of America 225K
• Barclays 225K
• UBS 230K

• Canada Aims to Sell Its Oil Beyond U.S (WSJ)
• ECB Unanimity May Prove Fleeting (WSJ)
• Chinese military spending exceeds $145 billion, drones advanced: U.S. (Reuters)
• France to sell 10 warships to Russia next? BNP Executive Firings Sought by Top New York Bank Regulator Amid Probe (BBG)
• Vodafone says governments have direct access to eavesdrop in some countries (Reuters)
• Home Price Gains of 20% Vanish as Hottest Markets Cool (BBG)
• G-7 Heads Warn Moscow Before Facing Putin (WSJ)
• Barclays Fine Spurs U.K. Scrutiny of Derivatives Conflict (BBG)
• "Or Costs" - Obama Says Putin Running Out of Time Over Ukraine (BBG)
• Banca Monte Paschi Falls After Offering New Stock at 35.5% Discount (BBG)

If predicting yesterday's EURUSD (and market) reaction to the ECB announcement was easy enough, today's reaction to the latest "most important ever" nonfarm payrolls number (because remember: with the Fed getting out of market manipulation, if only for now, it is imperative that the economy show it can self-sustain growth on its own even without $85 billion in flow per month, which is why just like the ISM data earlier this week, the degree of "seasonal adjustments" are about to blow everyone away) should be just as obvious: since both bad news and good news remain "risk-on catalysts", and since courtesy of Draghi's latest green light to abuse any and every carry trade all risk assets will the bought the second there is a dip, the "BTFATH mentality" will be alive in well. It certainly was overnight, when the S&P500 rose to new all time highs despite another 0.5% drop in the Shcomp (now barely holding on above 2000), and a slight decline in the Nikkei (holding on just over 15,000).