Archive - Jun 2014 - Story

Initial claims very slightly missed expectations (312 vs 311.9 exp) for the 3rd week in a row but the signal is no worse and no better as it sits near cycle lows. Continuing claims continue to drop; at 2.56 million, this is the lowest continuing claims since Nov 2007 - the last 4 months have seen continuing claims drop at the fastest rate in over 4 years. The bottom line is 'this is as good as it gets'...

Presented with little comment aside to note the surge in gold since Yellen gave markets the all-clear yesterday. It seems someone decided the open this morning was an opportune time to take on half a billion dollars of gold exposure...

It was two days ago when we reported that America's third crusade in Iraq "Is Not Going As Planned: Iraq Prime Minister Defies US, Accuses Saudi Arabia Of "Genocide"."Sure enough, here comes America's wrath: "the Obama administration is signaling that it wants a new government in Iraq without Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, convinced the Shiite leader is unable to reconcile with the nation's Sunni minority and stabilize a volatile political landscape. The U.S. administration is indicating it wants Iraq's political parties to form a new government without Mr. Maliki as he tries to assemble a ruling coalition following elections this past April, U.S. officials say."... The chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.) told a congressional hearing Wednesday: "The Maliki government, candidly, has got to go if you want any reconciliation."

• Currency Probe Widens as U.S. Said to Target Markups (BBG)
• Battle for Iraq refinery as U.S. hesitates to strike (Reuters)
• Ukraine forces battle separatists after truce 'refused' (Reuters)
• Fed Dots Ignored as Investors Focus on Yellen’s Message (BBG)
• Retirees Suffer as $300 Billion 401(k) Rollover Boom Enriches Brokers (BBG)
• American Apparel ousts CEO; source says Dov Charney 'will fight like hell' (LA Times)
• House Panel Is Subpoenaed as Trading Probe Heats Up (WSJ)
• GM Officials Ignored Alert on Car Stalling (WSJ)
• Russia’s $20 Billion Bond Void Filled by China to Mexico (BBG)

She came, she spoke, and she sent stocks to a new all time high. That is perhaps the simplest summary of what Janet Yellen did yesterday when, as a result of her droning monotone, she managed to put the VIX literally to sleep, which closed at the lowest since 2007 and the resulting surge in the S&P was a fresh record high, because despite the "concerns" Fed member have about record high complacency, all they are doing is adding to it. And now that apparently the Fed has a market "valuation" department, and Yellen can issue fairness opinions on whether the S&P is overvalued, the only question is whether today, as a follow through to yesterday's "buy everything, preferably on leverage, sincerely - the Fed" ramp, the VIX will drop to single digits today.

Putin's economic aide and the mastermind behind the Eurasian Economic Union, argues that Washington is trying to provoke a Russian military intervention in Ukraine, using the junta in Kiev as bait. If fulfilled, the plan will give Washington a number of important benefits. Firstly, it will allow the US to introduce new sanctions against Russia, writing off Moscow's portfolio of US Treasury bills. More important is that a new wave of sanctions will create a situation in which Russian companies won't be able to service their debts to European banks. Glazyev's set of countermeasures specifically targets the core strength of the US war machine, i.e. the Fed's printing press. Putin's advisor proposes the creation of a "broad anti-dollar alliance" of countries willing and able to drop the dollar from their international trade.... An anti-dollar coalition would be the first step for the creation of an anti-war coalition that can help stop the US' aggression.

A year ago we wished TEPCO the best of luck with the construction of the "Game of Thrones"-esque 1.4km giant wall of ice that was designed to surround the exploded Fukushima power plant and slow the movement of irradiated water below the damaged reactors, preventing it from flowing over into the ocean and surrounding land. A plan so idiotic we were at a loss for words trying to list the ways it could go wrong.  And, as it turns out, making a project overly complicated and ridiculous doesn't assure it will be a success. Quite the contrary. As Japan JIJI reports, Tepco said the project, which remains in its early stages, is experiencing a problem with an inner ice wall designed to contain highly radioactive water that is draining from the basements of the wrecked reactors. A Tepco spokesman added that "We have yet to form an ice plug because we can’t get the temperature low enough to freeze the water."

Many market participants are scratching their head as to whether the low VIX levels are an anomaly or some kind of utopian new normal. JPMorgan's Quant Derivatives shop warns the current environment is not similar to the great moderation of 2004-2007 as volatility appears to be disconnected from fundamentals and pressured by structural effects, including central bank intervention, low trading volumes, and pressure from option hedging. Crucially, based on an examination of 'gamma imbalances', the current (low) volatility regime may change significantly after the June expiry.

It appears there is something far more structural with America's long-term unemployment problem, something not even the "smartest academics in the (Marriner Eccles) room" can diagnose. Surprisingly, earlier today Gallup reported one factor that may be contributing to America's unemployment malaise - the same problem that is the reason for the insolvent US welfare state coffers: obesity. According to Gallup, Americans who have been out of work for a year or more are much more likely to be obese than those unemployed for a shorter time. The obesity rate rises from 22.8% among those unemployed for two weeks or less to 32.7% among those unemployed for 52 weeks or more.

Bank of America believes the increasing geopolitical tensions in Iraq risk regional contagion, with the potential for negative spillover to global markets. If Iraq were to see further turmoil, in addition to the civil war in neighbouring Syria, we believe it could destabilize the region further, disrupt oil production and exports, and provide fertile ground for terrorist activity to extend its reach. They review the background of Iraqi turmoil, and discuss the political, economic and market implications in 10 questions; noting that the root of the problem is the central government’s non-inclusive and sectarian policies.

Their names are familiar to all of us: Cleveland, Flint, Youngstown, Saginaw, Gary, Toledo, Reading, Akron, Flint and Buffalo were all once booming manufacturing cities that were absolutely packed with thriving middle class families. But now most of the manufacturing jobs are gone and all of those cities are just shadows of their former selves.

As he said all along "investors should have some exposure to gold" and Marc Faber has been adding recently as gold (and gold stocks) are so much cheaper than over-inflated stocks. Faber holds around 25% of his assets in gold becaquse he believes eventually the monetary policies of central banks will lead to a further loss of purchasing power in the value of paper money. The CNBC anchor is perturbed as the market is selling gold and buying stocks; to which Faber rebuffs; investors are shunning gold "because the media doesn't like gold, nobody at CNBC owns gold. Nobody at Bloomberg owns gold. Gold is being constantly talked down by the media, and Fed officials, and economists, who also don't own any gold. They're all stocked up in equities." "When people talk about people who are optimistic about gold, they call them 'gold bugs.' A bug is an insect. I don't call equity bulls 'cockroaches.' Do you understand? There is already a negative connotation with the expression of 'gold bug.'"

Presented with no comment...

While the Fed's magical money transmission mechanism in mortgages (and thus housing 'wealth') broke in the middle of last year, this last week's move is a perfect summary of the sensitivity of whatever is left of the recovery. Mortgage rates rose a mere 5bps but this triggered a 7% plunge in refinancing activity. It appears clear from the chart below that, like most other 'markets' the Fed has intervened in, mortgages are broken - rising rates (from any Fed signaling of confidence in the economy or otherwise) will slump refi activity at the margin no matter how rosy the future; and lowering rates is now having no impact at all on the marginal homeowner's ability to refi. That's another fine mess you've got us into Bernanke/Yellen.

The slaughterhouse that Iraq has become in the past week is the stuff that nightmares are made of. And this is just the beginning. Here's why...