Archive - Jul 2014 - Story

And scene... in what is an oddly honest moment for a central banker, Mario Draghi just admitted there-ain't-no-stopping-us-now:

*DRAGHI SAYS ECB WOULDN'T RAISE RATES IF BUBBLES EMERGE

So BTFD, BTFATH, and BTFWWIII as no matter what, the central bankers do not care about financial stability (or fragility). The so-called macro-prudential policy plan will save the day...which like OMT remains shrouded in a "don't ask, don't tell" Oz-ian mist.

It appears His word is losing its omniscience. Speaking to the European Parliament, ECB's Mario Draghi unleashes a torrent of negative-now-but-positive-just-around-the-corner attempts to talk down the Euro... and it's not working...

• *DRAGHI SAYS APPRECIATING EURO WOULD BE RISK TO RECOVERY (sell!)
• *DRAGHI SAYS JUNE POLICY MEASURES HAS EASED POLICY FURTHER (see sell!!)
• *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ARE ON DOWNSIDE (really sell please!!!)
• *DRAGHI SAYS READY TO USE UNCONVENTIONAL TOOLS WITHIN MANDATE (Seriously sell!!!)

For now, EURUSD dropped 5 pips and rallied back to unch... not exactly what he hoped for...

Exactly 50 years ago last month the US Supreme Court ruled on the now famous case of Jacobellis v. Ohio. At stake was whether a French movie with graphic sexual content could be outlawed by the state via its obscenity laws. The court ruled that it could not because the film wasn’t hardcore pornography. How could they tell? In an explanation that has now turned into one of the most famous quotes in court history, Justice Potter Stewart explained that although he could not define exactly what hardcore porn was, “I know it when I see it” Like porn, asset bubbles are also hard to define, but given our economic history, and especially our recent economic history, we know it when we see it, and now we see it everywhere. We all see it. Apparently the only people that don’t see the bubbles are the people creating them.

"Stocks are going up for reasons [investors] don't really want to understand," warns Titanium Capital's Philip Manduca. The main reasoning, reflecting on the market's shrug at Portugal's problems is "We have survived so many crises. What is another," but Manduca blasts "It's a cynical approach. The real problem is the guys who have got the dice in their hands keep changing them. They can do whatever they want. They are making new rules all the time." With that background he say there are good reasons for this market to fall and "nothing can make [him] bullish stocks now." While Janet Yellen should "introduce two-way risk" this week, he reminds us that "she is a political appointee... whose job is make sure they stay in power as long as possible." The problem is - US monetary policy is the world's lowest common denominator and has consequences...

Yup: strong corporate profits. Strong like bull(shit).

Nomura has threatened to seek the immediate repayment of at least €100 million of loans to Espirito Santo Financial Group, prompting today’s sale by the Portuguese co. of a stake in Banco Espirito Santo, according to people with knowledge of the talks who asked not to be identified. Failure to repay the loan could have triggered multiple defaults across cos. within Espirito Santo group.

What’s changed is the perception that the USA has any role to play any longer even in the diplomatic theatrics. The Middle East is disintegrating faster than any polity in historical memory. It appears that, if anything, the USA has only succeeded in accelerating the process wherever we turn our attentions. Since the 1970s, we haven’t felt the ultimate consequence of trouble in that part of the world, which would be an interruption in the oil supply coming out of there. Simply put, it shapes up as a struggle to the death that will not be impeded by reason, the good intentions of others, or sentimentality.

According to Goldman's sensitivity analysis, forget 2050: all that is needed for the S&P to hit a Venezuelan 3,560 by year end is for the 10 Year to plunge to 2.0% from its current levels of 2.5%, while the yield gap, or the earnings yield less then 10 Year UST yield, should compress from its current level of 300 bps to just about 100 bps. Or, in short, all that the stock market needs to rise 80% is for the US economy to implode in a deflationary singularity.

Clashes between Ukraine’s government forces and pro-Russia rebels in the east of the country have intensified since President Petro Poroshenko called off a cease-fire July 1. Putin and Merkel met as Russia warned of “irreversible consequences” after the Foreign Ministry said a Ukrainian army shell killed one person in the southern region of Rostov. Ukraine said its military didn’t fire on Russian territory and is ready to help investigate the incident. “Both leaders agreed that, unfortunately, the situation in Ukraine is degrading,” Peskov told reporters after Putin and Merkel met. The Russian leader expressed his “extreme concern” about Ukraine’s continuing offensive operations and today’s “tragedy,” Peskov said. Market shrugs.

Presented with little comment aside to remind the gung-ho stock-buyers who have been convinced (because the mainstream media has moved on from Banco Espirito Santo contagion concerns) that Portugal is anything but fixed. No government bailout coming means bail-ins and bail-ins means confiscation... Banco Espirito Santo bonds are collapsing today... down almost 8 points as they know this doesn't end well.

Surprise... following the worst week for stocks in months (and "most-shorted" stocks biggest down week in 2 years), one is hardly surprised that someone decided the investing public needs some confidence-boosting. VIX was slammed, "most shorted" stocks squeezed higher and all on the back of a USDJPY spike and surge based on absolutely no news whatsoever... Meanwhile, as stocks surge and gold collapses, Treasury yields are up (wait for it) 1bps...

With year-end target after year-end target having been met and raised by the oh-so-ethical sell-side strategists and asset-gatherers, it appears the Fed's grand plan of dragging every bit of cash into the increasingly more risky equity markets is working. After a rally driven more by financial engineering that real sustainable growth, Bloomberg reports, individual investors are plowing money back into the U.S. stock market just as professional strategists say gains for this year are over. As one senior equity manager warned, "if Wall Street, after poring over all known data, comes up with a target and we’re already there, and you still see individual investors buying and they’re typically the ones that are late to the party, it would seem there is limited upside," but that didn't stop about $100 billion being added to equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds in the past year, 10 times more than the previous 12 months. We have found this cycle's greater fool and once again it is the retail investor.

Now that the World Cup is over, and following last week's global macro reporting slumber (aside for the Portuguese risk flaring episode of course), things pick up quite a bit in the coming week. Here are the key events.

UPDATE: Gold is down 2.5% - the biggest daily drop since early Dec 2013

In a status-quo reinforcing smackdown, gold and silver prices have been clubbed lower this morning to one-month lows with the biggest drop in almost 2 months. The customary USDJPY surge (and risk asset spike) has accompanied this high volume dump just to make sure everyone believes that BES is fixed, Ukraine is fioxed, Iraq is fixed, earnings are great, and the water is warm....