Archive - Jul 2014 - Story

Vladimir Putin commented at a German-Russian official function: “We value the accumulated potential of Russian-German relations and the high level of trade and economic cooperation. Germany, one of the European Union leaders, is our most important partner in enhancing peace, global and regional security.” We would contend that we are seeing a decisive shift in the political character of Eurasia as 'continental empires' are starting to challenge the monopoly of 'legal' international violence that the US has exercised for the last 25 years. Such struggles have the potential to become major regional problems, but what is intriguing is the emerging continental alliance between Russia and Germany - a combination of German industrial might and Russian raw materials and military strength would instantly create a colossus.

You know it's bad when... Property developers in two of China’s weakest housing markets are offering to buy back homes in the future above the purchase price in a desperate effort to boost sales as demand slumps. As one analyst understatedly notes, "obviously they’re relatively cash-thirsty," but are under massive pressure not to reduce prices for fear of the signal it would send (that losses were possible). This 'fear' is echoed loudly by the CEO of Komatsu (the world’s second biggest maker of building and mining equipment) who saw said sales in China are falling more steeply than anticipated (20% below expectations) and warned "the impact of China is big."

"Many older workers managed to stay employed during the recession; in fact, the population in age groups 65 and over were the only ones not to see a decline in the employment share from 2005 to 2010 (Figure 3-25)... Remaining employed and delaying retirement was one way of lessening the impact of the stock market decline and subsequent loss in retirement savings."

Janet Yellen is a chatterbox of numbers, but most of them are “noise”. And that’s her term. Yet here is a profoundly important set of numbers that you haven’t heard boo about from Yellen and her mad money printers. To wit, during the “difficult” economic times since the financial crisis began gathering force in Q1 2008, the S&P 500 companies have distributed $3.8 trillion in stock buybacks and dividends out of just $4 trillion in cumulative net income. That’s right, 95 cents of every dollar they earned - including the huge gains from restructurings, downsizings and job terminations - was flushed right back into the Wall Street casino.

"Clinton Inc. is going to be the most formidable fundraising operation for the Democrats in the history of the country. Period. Exclamation point," is how on Republican lobbyist describes the Bill-and-Hillary show and as WSJ reports, in total, the Clintons raised between $2 billion and $3 billion from all sources, including individual donors, corporate contributors and foreign governments. They have raised more than $1 billion from U.S. companies and industry donors during two decades on the national stage through campaigns, paid speeches and a network of organizations advancing their political and policy goals. Financial Services firms have been one of the single largest sources of money for the Clintons since the 1992 presidential campaign; and the couple's No. 1 Wall Street contributor, giving nearly $5 million - Goldman Sachs.

Last week, Nick Hanauer explained how the pitchforks were out for him and his 'zillionaire' friends' he was right; but his 'solution' is far from correct..."If Hanauer really wants to test out his theory, I propose this to him: shed your billions of dollars and give the money directly to your employees. Drain your bank accounts and give the proceeds to the spend-happy middle class. If consumer demand truly grows the economy, then the profits will come roaring back. Hanauer is right that economic inequality can create resentment. But he doesn’t see the real culprit: a government that insists in meddling in the marketplace. His solutions don’t fix the problem; only exacerbate it."

While the Bank of England's chief economist, Andrew Haldane, admitted that reviving investors’ appetite for risk was one of the forgotten goals of central banks, he notes there are concerns that risk is not being "removed" but changing shape and migrating to more liquid markets but that should not be a problem as "monetary policy can on occasions have a role to play in ensuring against these financial stability risks..." i.e. the market put. His biggest concern is the aggregation of derivatives clearing which could be a "problem from hell" but he notes the future will not be the same as the past as "volatility in financial-market asset prices will be somewhat greater," and that interest rates will not 'normalize' to the levels of the past.

nowhere is it clearer that nothing at all has changed when it comes to crony capitalist behind the scenes muppetry, than in the latest Reuters exclusive of the white glove treatment "evil" BNP got in order to make sure the full wrath of US justice doesn't damage the criminal money launderer too severely. "The New York state banking regulator on Monday separately decided not to pull BNP's banking license in the state, despite a criminal guilty plea, because of the risk it could put BNP out of business."

Answer: Everything. Just as he did January 2008...

For the 5th month in a row, US treasury bonds started with a 2-day sell-off as yields rose arond 6bps today (back to unch from FOMC). Gold, silver, and copper all gained notably (despite a knee-jerk lower on the ADP data). The US Dollar jumped instantly on the ADP print then flatlined for the rest of the day but USDJPY pushed higher. However, stocks chose to ignore their ubiquitous drivers - VIX was slammed lower (stocks ignored it) and USDJPY surged (stocks ignored it) as early weakness in Trannies was overtaken by Russell 2000 losses as the S&P and Dow flatlined in a very narrow range. Shortly after the US markets opened, credit markets diverged notably from equity markets (but caught up into the close). VIX closed lower. The Dow had its narrowest range since Dec - funny what happens when there's no $190 billion repo injection, eh? The S&P and Dow closed marginally green at new record highs. (and Camera-on-a-stick tumbles 17% from its highs)

U.S. consumers think one-year domestic price inflation will run 50-100% higher than the current headline Consumer Price Index that Wall Street uses to value financial assets. That surprising finding doesn’t come from the fringe "Inflation is nigh, repent!" camp; as ConvergEx's NBick Colas points out, it is the central observation of the New York Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. This relatively new but rigorously designed monthly dataset polls 1,200 American households on a range of financial questions, from inflation expectations to household finances and labor market conditions. The news The Fed is hearing from the survey must be a bit tough to hear. Inflation expectations are significantly higher than their "Target" of 2% already, meaning any acceleration in prices will "Feel" higher than the central bank’s notional goals.

Current forward S&P 500 P/E: 15.6x
Forward S&P 500 P/E on October 9, 2007: 15.2x

The boom is unsustainable. Investment and consumption are higher than they would have been in the absence of monetary intervention. As asset bubbles inflate, yields increase, but so do inflation expectations. To dampen inflation expectations, the Fed withdraws stimulus. As soon as asset prices start to fall, yields on heavily leveraged assets are negative. As asset prices decline, increasingly more investors are underwater. Loan defaults rise as mortgage payments adjust up with rising interest rates. When asset bubbles pop, the boom becomes the bust.

As if having to pay the highest price of gas since 2008 for the Independence Day weekend wasn't bad enough, millions of traveling east coasters will now have to deal with what may develop into a hurricane as well, and will certainly result in less than perfect weather conditions as the holiday weekend unrolls. Presenting Tropical Storm Arthur. According to NBC, a hurricane watch was issued Wednesday for part of North Carolina as the first named tropical storm of the season gathered strength and threatened July Fourth celebrations along the East Coast. Negative impact to Q3 GDP? Still unknown.

While the USA has been oddly quiet since Ukraine's President Poroshenko unilaterally ended the cease-fire, the Russians have not. This morning's "anti-terrorist" shelling of East Ukraine buildings stirred Russia's Prime Minister Medvedev to warn:

*MEDVEDEV SAYS POROSHENKO MADE MISTAKE ENDING CEASE-FIRE; PERSONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR NEW DEATHS
*MEDVEDEV SAYS THERE MAY BE FULL FLEDGED GAS CRISIS BY FALL

Of course, Ukraine is 'fixed' - it must be: stocks are up. However, it appears a new round of violence (with little seeming room for negotiation) appears set to start as Ukraine moves ahead and Medvedev makes it clear there will be repercussions.